Inquiries and Responses - Germany's Climate Path at Risk: Why We'll Fail to Achieve Our Climate Goals
The Experts Council on Climate Issues, a scientific advisory body for the German government, has released a report in Berlin, stating that Germany may exceed its legal limit of emitting harmful greenhouse gases into the atmosphere by around 47 million tons by 2030. This is a more pessimistic prediction than that of Economy and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck, who stated in March that Germany is on track. However, Habeck's optimism may be due to his more positive assessment of the Federal Environment Agency’s forecasts for the following years.
Under the Climate Protection Act, Germany's allowable emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases for the period between 2021 and 2030 would be overshot by approximately 47 million tons according to the Experts Council's latest calculations. Previously, Germany was predicted to overshoot by a staggering 1.1 billion tons. Hans-Martin Henning, the council's chairman, warned that this buffer is significantly less than one percent of the total budget for this period.
The council's pessimism is attributed to several factors. The emissions forecasts in the areas of energy, buildings, and transport have been underestimated, and restrictions in industries have also been underestimated. Additionally, the council took note of the fact that the Federal Environment Agency’s data only included information up until October last year.
Since then, a significant setback in Germany's climate policy has occurred. The Climate and Transformation Fund for Energy Transition has been cut as a result of the Karlsruhe ruling on the federal budget. Furthermore, the council noted that they had assumed higher prices for climate-damaging gas and more expensive certificates in the European emissions trading system. In the emissions trading system, firms can trade with certificates to emit greenhouse gases.
In response, a spokesman from the Economy and Climate Protection Ministry argued that the council had overlooked certain recent developments, including the solar energy package and plans to promote hydrogen as a climate-friendly energy carrier. However, the chairman of the council, Hans-Martin Henning, claimed there were no significant changes that would affect their overall assessment.
The council’s assessment changes the landscape of Germany's climate policy. It emphasizes that the country is not on track to achieve its climate targets and underscores the need for more action. They recommend a more ambitious climate protection law, banning the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, and a higher price for greenhouse gas emissions in the European emissions trading system. Additionally, they urge the German government to invest more in climate protection and to support the EU in strengthening its climate policy.
Under the Climate Protection Act, things should be progressing well by now. By 2040, at least 88 percent should be achieved and Germany should be climate neutral by 2045. The Experts Council, however, predicts that the CO2 budget between 2031 and 2040 will be exceeded by around 10 percent. "We will probably not achieve climate neutrality even by 2050," said the deputy chairwoman of the Experts Council, Brigitte Knopf.
Regardless of its legal implications, this assessment confirms the concerns of environmental organizations and other experts. They believe that the government has overestimated the situation in the spring and that the traffic light coalition needs to secure future investments in the climate sector due to the urgent need for action. Members of the Green party like Lisa Badum suggest loosening budget restrictions in light of the ongoing flood disaster, insisting that global warming leads to increased storms, floods, and droughts.
The Experts Council's Assessment on Germany's Climate Policy: Possible Implications
Data from the Experts Council on Climate Issues suggests that Germany will likely miss its 2030 climate target and may have to take more aggressive measures to correct course. In their assessment, the council projects a 47 million-ton undershoot in total emissions by the end of the decade, compared to the initially anticipated 1.1 billion tons. This finding could have several consequences.
First, there might be an increased pressure on the government to issue more ambitious climate protection legislation. Recent studies have established that a higher price for greenhouse gas emissions could facilitate industry's transition to clean energy. The council’s recommendation of a more stringent climate protection law, a sales ban on new petrol and diesel cars, and a higher target price for greenhouse gas emissions in European emissions trading would strengthen Germany’s commitment to environmental protection.
Second, this news may solidify the argument for further EU climate policy. The European Union's Green Deal aims to make the bloc climate neutral by 2050. If Germany's climate policy is not sufficiently aggressive, the other nations' efforts may falter. Ensuring coordination, investment, and legislation among member states is crucial to achieve the EU's collective climate goal.
Third, Germany's failure to meet its climate targets might have financial implications. The monitoring and reporting of carbon emissions could affect the country's credit rating and business climate. Loss of investor confidence could result in sluggish economic growth and higher borrowing costs over the long term.
Finally, if the German government fails to act promptly in response to the Experts Council's assessment, environmental organizations and opposition parties (such as the Greens) will likely increase their efforts to promote climate protection in the country. The success of these campaigns could result in more aggressive policies, which may eventually align with the council's recommendations.
Conclusion
The Experts Council on Climate Issues' report paints a bleak picture for Germany's climate policy. Not only might the country miss its 2030 climate target, but it is also unlikely to reach climate neutrality by 2045, as prescribed by the Climate Protection Act. By calling for more ambitious climate protection legislation, a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars, and a higher price for greenhouse gas emissions in the emissions trading system, the council is urging the German government to be more proactive in addressing the climate crisis. This news could also galvanize stakeholders within the European Union to adopt a more coordinated and aggressive stance on carbon reduction.
According to the Expert Council, it's crucial not to wait until the second warning regarding climate targets. There are two areas where Germany needs significant improvements - buildings and transportation. Germany lags behind European climate targets in both sectors. Additionally, the method for computing climate targets should be enhanced.
On Monday, a representative from the Federal Transport Ministry, led by the FDP, stated, "We're already working on climate protection in transport." Nonetheless, transforming a large number of vehicles with combustion engines to more climate-friendly alternatives isn't a simple task. A spokeswoman from the Federal Building Ministry, under the SPD, commented, "Now that the Climate Protection Act has been revised, our focus should be on ensuring that Germany as a whole can attain its climate goals, not just individual sectors." However, the reform confirms that each ministry retains responsibility.
Henning from the Expert Council feels there is a need for more clarity about "who in the federal government will take charge" if targets are missed. The Council advises the government to promptly clarify regulations' specifics.
Read also:
- The Experts Council on Climate Issues recently warned that Germany could exceed its legal limit of greenhouse gas emissions by 47 million tons under the Climate Protection Act by 2030.
- Robert Habeck, Germany's Economy and Climate Protection Minister, had previously stated that Germany was on track to meet its climate targets, but his optimism may be misplaced, according to the council.
- Hans-Martin Henning, chairman of the council, urged the Federal Government to consider more ambitious climate protection measures, including a higher price for greenhouse gas emissions in the European emissions trading system.
- The report from the council also discussed the underestimation of emissions forecasts in the energy, buildings, and transport sectors, as well as the lack of consideration for restrictions in industries and outdated data from the Federal Environment Agency.
- In response to the council's report, the Federal Government should take action to ensure that Germany can meet its climate targets, which include achieving 88% emissions reduction by 2040 and becoming climate neutral by 2045, as stated in the Climate Protection Act.
