Germanya weathering the floods with its "blue-eyed resilience"?
Germany is experiencing a reprieve from the current flood situation. The meteorological service has withdrawn severe weather warnings for Bavaria, and Saxony is predicted to narrowly skirt the floods as per the Environment Minister's statements. However, crisis reports continue to roll in from other European countries, and the death toll is climbing steadily.
In Saxony, the Elbe's water level is still increasing, but Bavaria is breathing a sigh of relief with some respite on the horizon. In Dresden, the Elbe's water level is nearing the six-meter mark and may soon reach alarm level 3, as reported by the Saxony flood control center. This threshold is expected to be crossed sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday night. The alarm level 3 remains in effect at the Schönau gauge on the Czech border.
Despite this, the alarm level 4 will not be attained at any Saxon Elbe gauge. A protracted flood crest is expected in Schönau and Dresden from Wednesday onwards. From Thursday, the Elbe's water level is also expected to decrease due to the decline in rainfall. The levels of the Neiße, Spree, and Black Elster in Saxony are already dropping once again.
Environment Minister Wolfram Günther stated that Saxony will "get away with a close call, maybe even unscathed" from the flooding. Considering the grim images from Eastern and Southeastern Europe featuring fatalities and destruction, "we will fare comparatively well," he asserted following a cabinet meeting in Dresden. However, this is not a cause for celebration just yet. It might take until the end of September for the Elbe to fall below alarm level 1, as the Czech Republic gradually releases the dams.
Anticipated peak in Munich during the day
The German Weather Service has lifted all severe weather warnings for Bavaria due to the decrease in heavy rain, as rainfall has abated. Nonetheless, "larger floods may occur on some rivers until midweek."
Previously, the heavy rain overnight led to water levels rising in numerous locations in Bavaria, as per the flood news service. The warning level 3 was surpassed at the Danube in Passau at midnight. The peak is expected to be reached there during the day.
The water level of the Isar in Munich has also increased once more, with the peak also expected to be reached there during the day. The same applies to other rivers such as the Vils and the Inn catchment area. The flood situation is expected to improve in the coming days, according to the flood news service.
Elbe and Spree overflow in Brandenburg
In Brandenburg, the Technical Relief Forces (THW) are prepared—in case the Oder from Poland overflows. Starting from midweek, a rise in the water level of the Oder is causing the greatest concern, said Sebastian Gold from the THW. However, the situation remains uncertain, and they are preparing for all eventualities, such as the highest alarm level 4 anticipated at the Ratzdorf gauge south of Frankfurt/Oder on Sunday, at which point even low-lying areas might be flooded.
So far, the Lausitzer Neiße, Elbe, and Spree rivers have overflowed. For instance, the lowest alarm level 1 is in effect at the Spree gauge in Spremberg. At the lowest of the four levels, water bodies begin to overflow.
Fifth death reported in Lower Austria
Even though rainfall has diminished, there's no all-clear in the flood-hit regions of Central and Eastern Europe:
In Austria, additional locations in the heavily affected Lower Austrian state had to be evacuated. Firefighters discovered a fifth fatality in a flooded house in Lower Austria. In Poland, the death toll has risen to six. In total, 21 individuals have lost their lives in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania due to the floods.
In Lower Austria, where entire regions have been submerged due to days of continuous rain, seven villages in the Tullnerfeld were evacuated on Monday and Tuesday. As of Tuesday, 26 villages remain isolated from the exterior world. Since Friday, the Austrian fire brigade has been deployed to 33,000 incidents.
On Tuesday morning, firefighters discovered the body of an 81-year-old woman in a flooded house in Wurmla, Lower Austria. On Monday, two men aged 70 and 80 were found dead. They had been trapped in their houses due to rising floodwaters, as per police reports. Later, rescue workers discovered the body of another man in the water in Klosterneuburg.
A firefighter in Lower Austria also lost his life on Sunday. Lower Austria's governor, Johanna Mikl-Leitner, stated that the decreasing rain has brought "some relief." In many regions, water levels are "thankfully" receding. However, the extent of the damage is still "not yet assessable."
Landslides pose a threat
While Austrian meteorologists anticipate only scattered showers in the coming days, they caution of potential landslides, as floodwaters might cause soil and rock masses, as well as entire mountain slopes, to shift. The danger is not yet over in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Romania as well.
In Poland, authorities reported two more deaths on Tuesday, bringing the total to six suspected to have drowned in the floods. In Romania, there have been seven fatalities so far.
In the Czech Republic, where three deaths have been recorded so far, more than 60,000 households remain without power, particularly in the northeastern part of the country. On Monday evening, 500 people had to be evacuated from the floods. In Romania, there have been seven fatalities so far.
Climate change is believed to be the driving force behind the rise in heavy downpours and their increased severity. According to findings from the European research group ClimaMeter, the recent heavy rainfall episodes in Central and Eastern Europe can largely be chalked up to human-caused climate change. Present-day heavy rain events are reportedly 20% more intense than they were at the close of the last century.
After the water level decrease in Bavaria, larger floods may still occur on some rivers until midweek. Despite the alarm level 1 expected to be reached in Saxony by the end of September, the Elbe's water level in Dresden is nearing the six-meter mark, approaching alarm level 3, and is expected to reach this threshold between Tuesday and Wednesday night.
