Germany to face billions in fines
High emissions in the transport sector could still cost Germany dearly, according to calculations. While there's still time until potential billion-dollar EU fines loom, significant measures seem far off.
Missing climate targets in transport could cost Germany between 9 and 55 billion euros by 2030, according to Spiegel calculations. The magazine cited expected EU penalty payments for the 2021-2030 period, based on estimates by the government's Expert Council on Climate Questions that without substantial counteraction, transport emissions are likely to be significantly too high.
If Germany fails to meet CO2 emission targets in sectors like transport, buildings, or industry, it would have to purchase emissions rights from EU states that exceed their targets. The wide price range is due to uncertainty about the 2030 CO2 certificate price. Spiegel estimates this could range between 45 and 260 euros per tonne, with a likely price of around 130 euros.
Current projections suggest Germany could miss EU targets by 180 million tonnes in transport and around 32 million tonnes in buildings. Even at the lowest assumed price of 45 euros per tonne, this would result in penalty payments of 9.5 billion euros, according to Spiegel.
Countermeasures like a general speed limit could significantly reduce this amount. A speed limit of 120 km/h on motorways and 80 km/h elsewhere could save around 39 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents between 2024 and 2030, according to Umweltbundesamt calculations. However, Transport Minister Volker Wissing has so far firmly rejected such a speed limit.
The government's goal of putting at least 15 million cleaner electric vehicles on German roads by 2030 is likely to be missed by six million vehicles, according to a study by think tank Agora Verkehrswende and consulting firm Boston Consulting Group.
The Commission has expressed concerns about Germany's potential failure to meet its emissions targets in various sectors, including transport. If these targets are missed, financial penalties could be imposed by the EU, as outlined by the government's Expert Council on Climate Questions.
