- Germany falls backwards by five years <unk> because of policy mistakes
Germany has fallen behind by five years in its transition to electric mobility due to poor decisions and misleading discussions in Berlin, according to a new study by the Center Automotive Research (CAR) in Bochum. Institute director Ferdinand Dudenhöffer says, "Germany is losing ground in the big future theme of mobility."
In 2022, the study shows, the share of fully electric passenger cars in new vehicle sales was at its highest nationwide at 17.7 percent (including plug-in hybrids, it was even 31.4 percent). However, in the first half of this year, pure electric cars accounted for only around 12.5 percent of all new registrations. Sales values like 2022, CAR says, cannot be reached again before 2027.
Car buyers are sensitive to political statements
Dudenhöffer urges politicians to weigh their words and actions more carefully in the future: "New car buyers are very sensitive to prices and political statements." Even the halt of sales premiums for plug-in hybrids at the beginning of this year caused sales to drop and led to a "politically induced renaissance of classic combustion engines." The hybrid drive technology was tried to be sold as a "bait and switch" for electric mobility.
The sudden end of the environmental bonus also for pure electric cars at the end of 2023 further exacerbated uncertainty in the market. The main culprits were the Greens around Economics Minister Robert Habeck - "ironically, the party that wanted to achieve the opposite."
But even German CDU politician and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen contributed to the sales slump by questioning the planned EU-wide ban on combustion engines by 2035 in October 2023 with "high media power." Dudenhöffer: "The 'rescue of the combustion engine' became the industry-political slogan of the FDP, AFD, CDU, CSU, and BSW." It was noticed that one could win voter voices with it. Synthetic fuels were hyped, "although neither from the production side nor from the cost side were there any reliable and sound facts."
Combustion engines are having a small renaissance
So, combustion engines are making a comeback. In the first half of 2024, 56.1 percent of all newly registered passenger cars were gasoline or diesel engines. CAR sees a chance that current market developments can help reverse this trend, as the price gap between combustion engines and electric vehicles continues to shrink. Weak demand is causing battery costs to plummet, with lithium-ion iron phosphate cells down by as much as 40 percent in just nine months. Poor capacity utilization and stricter EU CO2 regulations for new vehicles from 2025 will also force customers to offer higher discounts on electric cars.
Dudenhöffer calls for the immediate reintroduction of an environmental bonus of 5,000 to 6,000 euros for electric cars, with industry participation. "And the old parties must finally launch a joint campaign that clearly states that electric cars are high technology that leads us into the future. Electric cars are already on par with combustion engines."
That electric cars are per se too expensive is not enough to explain the sales crisis alone. Germans spend an average of around 45,000 euros on a new passenger car, for which there are already plenty of good electric cars on offer.
The sudden halt of sales premiums for plug-in hybrids in the beginning of the year led to a decrease in sales, causing a "politically induced renaissance" of traditional gasoline and diesel cars. Despite the price gap between combustion engines and electric vehicles continuously shrinking, combustion engines still accounted for 56.1% of all newly registered passenger cars in the first half of 2024.
In an attempt to reverse the trend, Dudenhöffer proposes the immediate reintroduction of environmental bonuses for electric cars, encouraging the general public and politicians to embrace electric vehicles as high technology and the future of mobility.
