Germany exhibits simultaneous expansion and contraction.
Germany's population is forecasted to swell, primarily due to immigration. By 2045, the nation is estimated to house approximately 85.5 million people, according to the German Institute for Building, Urban and Spatial Research (BBSR). This growth is projected to amount to approximately 800,000 people or 0.9%, compared to the year 2023.
However, this growth is expected to be largely fueled by immigrants from abroad. Peter Jakubowski, head of the Department of Space and Urban Development at the BBSR, stated during the presentation of the results that, without immigration, Germany's population would be significantly lower in 2045 as deaths would outnumber births. The institute assumes that, from 2031 onwards, 300,000 more people will immigrate to Germany each year than leave.
This modest growth is unlikely to resolve the apparent labor and skilled labor shortages. Although the overall population is increasing, fewer folks will be available for employment. The number of individuals aged 67 and over is projected to rise by 2.2 million or 13.6%, while the number of those employed between the ages of 20 and 67 is projected to decrease by 2%. "Germany is getting old as hell," demographer Jana Hoymann said. "Over one in five people in 2045 will be over 67 years old."
Age Gap Regions
However, a uniform picture for Germany isn't in the cards. Experts foresee significant regional discrepancies. For instance, many Bavarian districts and parts of Lower Saxony are leading the aging process, while some parts of Saxony, Thuringia, and Saxony-Anhalt are already seeing a reversal of the aging population. Hoymann attributes this to the fact that the older population's ratio in these areas is already quite high.
The BBSR team singles out Uckermark and Landkreis Greiz as especially "elderly" districts. On the flip side, young university cities such as Heidelberg or Munich are "on average nine years younger." The average age in 2045 is projected to be between 40 and 42 years old in these cities.
In the next two decades, economic growth is predicted to stem from economically robust metropolitan areas and their surrounding regions, including areas in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, as well as in Saxony. The strongest growth, with 14% and more, is expected by the Institute for the eastern Munich district of Ebersberg (Bavaria) and for the cities of Freiburg im Breisgau, Potsdam, and Leipzig.
In structurally weak regions outside metropolitan areas, the population decline persists, according to the Institute. The districts of Erzgebirgskreis (Saxony), Greiz (Thuringia), and Mansfeld-Südharz (Saxony-Anhalt) are estimated to lose more than a fifth of their population by 2045. However, regions in West Germany are also reportedly losing inhabitants. This includes parts of Northern Hesse, adjacent areas in Eastern North Rhine-Westphalia, and parts of the Saarland.
Challenges in All Domains
The forecast presents "partially conflicting challenges" for the regions. In booming regions, it will be necessary to keep pace with growth in schools, housing, and transportation infrastructure, said BBSR expert Steffen Maretzke.
In shrinking areas, maintaining existing infrastructure and compensating for the loss of the workforce will be key. Today, providing schools or vocational training in some areas is already challenging, Maretzke pointed out. "Concentration processes must occur as these demographic shrinkage processes are also associated with challenges for public finances."
