- Gaza dialogues conclude without achieving a milestone; subsequent discussion schedule uncertain
The ongoing ceasefire negotiations in Gaza aren't a slam dunk yet, but progress is being made. Mediators Egypt, Qatar, and the USA had a productive two-day meeting with Israel and Hamas in Doha, though they failed to seal the deal. The talks brought about a "positive atmosphere," as per a joint statement, and another round is scheduled for Cairo soon. Lower-level negotiators will keep pushing to bridge the remaining gaps.
The high-level event in Doha saw participation from top US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials, including David Barnea, the head of Israel's foreign intelligence service. However, Hamas was absent, sticking to its tradition of not engaging in direct talks with Israel or the USA. But the Hamas political office, its primary foreign representation, is stationed in Doha, offering mediators easy access.
The discussions had been put on hold for months. US President Joe Biden expressed optimism, stating, "We're closer than we've ever been," at a White House gathering with journalists. He later added, "We're much, much closer than we were three days ago," but warned, "We might have something, but we're not there yet."
US hopeful, Hamas cautious
Biden's Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, will be paying a visit to Israel this weekend to carry on with the "intense diplomatic efforts" and pave the way for the agreement's conclusion. Netanyahu, the Israeli Prime Minister, expressed gratitude towards the mediating nations of Egypt, Qatar, and the USA. Israel hopes that pressure from these countries will sway Hamas to accept the proposals from late May, enabling the deal's implementation.
A Hamas representative showed apprehension. The group's leadership has got hold of the results of the negotiations, which don't incorporate all the proposals Biden made to Hamas on July 2, disclosed Mahmud Mardaui, a senior Hamas official.
Report: Iran puts retaliatory strike on hold for now
Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty anticipates that a ceasefire could prevent any further escalation in the region. Iran and the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon had promised revenge following the assassination of Hamas' exiled leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, and the death of a Hezbollah military commander a fortnight ago. An attack was expected since then, but both (Iran and Hezbollah) might abstain from launching a larger, potentially coordinated assault against Israel if a Gaza ceasefire is declared.
The "New York Times" reported that Iran has decided to postpone its retaliatory strike for the time being, allowing the negotiators space to explore a Gaza ceasefire. US, Iranian, and Israeli sources confirmed this. It was also stated by five Israeli sources that Israel's intelligence service has assessed that Hezbollah and Iran have temporarily downsized the preparedness of their rocket units. However, this assessment might flip around rapidly.
Expectations for a resolution were scant at the outset of the Doha meeting in view of the significant chasm between Israel's and the Islamist Hamas' ideologies. Yet, there's a strategy in place to reduce the remaining chasm, revealed in the mediator's statement. It aligns with the core tenets of the peace plan Biden introduced, which Hamas isn't keen on renegotiating. "Technical teams" will engage over the upcoming days to materialize the current proposals.
Biden unveiled a tri-phase strategy to end the Gaza conflict in May. In the first phase, during a six-week truce, a designated group of hostages would be released. In exchange, Palestinians imprisoned in Israel would be freed. The second and third phases would entail the perpetual discontinuation of hostilities, the liberation of the remaining hostages, and the reconstruction of the devastated Gaza Strip.
On October 7, 2021, radical Islamist Hamas and other Gaza Strip factions attacked southern Israel, leading to over 1,200 casualties and the capture of 250 hostages. Israel retaliated with heavy airstrikes and a ground invasion in Gaza. As per the Gaza health authority, controlled by Hamas, nearly 40,000 individuals were killed during this conflict. This number combines civilians and combatants, and its reliability is questionable. The death toll amounts to around 2% of the 2.2 million people residing in Gaza prior to the conflict.
Reportedly, 115 people are still being kept captive by Hamas, with many feared dead. Protests continue in Israel, demanding an agreement to secure the hostages' release. Many protesters accuse Netanyahu of derailing a deal and succumbing to the demands of his ultra-religious and far-right coalition partners, on whom Netanyahu relies for his political survival. These partners oppose concessions to Hamas.
The ongoing negotiations in Gaza are being facilitated by mediators including The United States, Egypt, and Qatar. The plan introduced by President Biden aligns with the strategy to reduce the chasm between Israel and Hamas, as stated by the mediators.
