Election to the National Assembly - French election: Left surprisingly ahead, prime minister wants to leave
Surprise in France: According to initial calculations, the Left Alliance is leading in the Parliamentary elections in France, contrary to all expectations. The far-right Rassemblement National (RN) performed significantly worse than anticipated. It could only end up in third place behind the Centrist bloc of President Emmanuel Macron, according to TF1 and France 2 reports after polling stations closed. However, none of the parties are expected to reach an absolute majority of 289 seats.
Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne announced consequences after the election and announced her resignation. It remains open whether President Macron will accept the resignation request.
The Left is looking to take power
The Left made their claim to power following their surprise victory. "We have won and now we will govern," said Green Party Secretary-General Marine Tondelier. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the French Left Party, also demanded that Macron call on the Left to govern.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) could reportedly secure between 172 and 215 of the 577 seats. Macron's forces are expected to receive between 150 and 180 mandates, and the RN led by Marine Le Pen and her allies between 120 and 152.
Surprising success with the Rainbow Coalition
The result comes as a complete surprise in France. After the first round of voting a week ago, predictions had the RN just below the absolute majority and potentially able to form the next government. The RN has significantly underperformed, however. In the dissolved parliament, it had 88 seats.
The Left and Macron's Center-Forces formed a strategic alliance before the second round of voting. To prevent each other from taking votes away from the RN in constituencies where three candidates made it to the second round, many Left and Liberal candidates stepped down. They urged their voters to vote against the RN in every case.
The result now shows clearly: The dam against the Right holds. The voter turnout was significantly higher than in previous years at 67.5%.
Unclear leadership and internal alignment of the Left
France's divided Left had only united for the Parliamentary elections a few weeks ago as the New Popular Front (NFP). In the European elections at the beginning of June, the parties had still run separately. Disagreements within the Left primarily revolve around the left-wing figurehead Mélenchon. The populist, who is skeptical of Europe and advocates a clear pro-worker stance, is heavily criticized even within his own party.
The Left Alliance from Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left has not yet provided clear leadership or a joint program.
The Left could try to gain support from the Center-forces - either as a minority government with tolerance or in the form of a Grand Coalition. Given the opposing political alignments, it is uncertain if this would be possible. Socialist chief Olivier Faure has already ruled out a coalition with Macron's camp. Leading Social Democrat Raphaël Glucksmann suggested collaboration on specific projects.
From the Elysée Palace, it was stated that the question would be whether a coalition with a holding majority could be formed to reach an absolute majority, as reported by the BFMTV broadcaster.
Must Macron give up power?
It is unclear if State President Macron will accept Attal's resignation and appoint a Leftist as premier. In such a configuration, Macron would lose power, while the premier, who manages the government affairs, would become more important.
What this means for Germany and Europe is uncertain and likely depends on who comes to power. The Left Front holds divergent positions on many major political issues.
Without a majority, there is a risk of standstill
If none of the parties find a government majority, the current government could temporarily carry out the administrative duties or an expert government could be formed. France risks political standstill in such a scenario. A new dissolution of the parliament by Macron and new elections are only possible in July 2025.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris as an influential actor in Europe and part of the German-French tandem would no longer be effectively present.
A victory for the RN would have consequences for Germany and Europe
Brussels and Berlin might be relieved by the election outcome. The scenario of a right-wing nationalist government, a major concern for Germany and the EU, seems to have been averted. The RN holds little regard for the long-standing close cooperation with Berlin. The Euroskeptics aim to curb the influence of the EU in France.
Doubts about Le Pen's party transformation
The Left-Right-Liberal alliance harmed the RN in the second round of voting. There was also controversy over past, allegedly far-right or anti-Semitic statements from RN candidates. This raised doubts about Marine Le Pen's efforts to "detoxify" her party. With this course, she has been trying for years to make her party appear more moderate and electable in the bourgeois mainstream.
The Left benefits from unity and fear of the right
The Left profited from their hastily formed alliance. Allowing the leadership question to remain open might have helped them attract voters who had issues with Mélenchon.
Additionally, the Left likely received significantly more support due to the uncertainty and fear of a historical right-wing shift in France and a right-nationalist government.
Macron is in a better position than anticipated
For the unpopular Macron, the result is less damaging than expected. Macron failed to build on the relative majority of his Center-forces through the elections. However, his faction could still become the second strongest force and share government responsibility with the Left.
- Despite initial predictions, Marine Tondelier from the Green Party declared that the Left Alliance has won the Parliamentary election in France and will now govern.
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, founder of the French Left Party, also urged President Macron to invite the Left to form the government.
- According to TF1 and France 2 reports, the Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) could secure between 172 and 215 seats, while Macron's forces are expected to receive between 150 and 180 mandates.
- The far-right Rassemblement National (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, significantly underperformed in the election, ending up in third place behind Macron's Centrist bloc.
- The Left and Macron's Center-Forces formed a strategic alliance before the second round of voting to prevent the RN from taking the absolute majority.
- The result of the election shows that the dam against the Right has held, as the voter turnout was significantly higher than in previous years at 67.5%.
- Socialist chief Olivier Faure has ruled out a coalition with Macron's camp, but Raphaël Glucksmann suggested collaboration on specific projects.
- If none of the parties find a government majority, France risks political standstill, as a new dissolution of the parliament by Macron and new elections are only possible in July 2025.
- Brussels and Berlin might be relieved by the result, as the scenario of a right-wing nationalist government, a major concern for Germany and the EU, seems to have been averted.
