Parliamentary election - France's right-wing nationalists slump in election polls
In new opinion polls before the decisive round of the French Parliament election this Sunday, the leading right-wing national party of Marine Le Pen, Rassemblement National (RN), and its allies are losing support according to Ipsos Institute. The RN and its allies are predicted to have only 175 to 205 seats in the Parliament, while 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority. Harris Interactive Institute also showed the Right-wingers and their allies at 185 to 215 seats.
France's Left Bloc gains slightly
The new Left Bloc comes in second place, according to the Ipsos survey, with 145 to 175 seats. The President's camp follows in third place with 118 to 148 seats. The moderate wing of the Republican Party, which did not join the cooperation with the RN as agreed by party leader Eric Ciotti, is projected to have 57 to 67 seats.
According to Harris Interactive data, the Left Bloc could reach 168 to 198 seats, surpassing the government camp with 115 to 145 seats. The moderate Republicans are projected to have 32 to 63 seats.
A majority for a coalition beyond Le Pen's party possible
With these poll numbers, there is at least a theoretical chance of a relative majority for a coalition or alliance beyond the Rassemblement National. Although the Left Party and the President's camp had ruled out a coalition before the election, a collaboration between the Center-Left of President Emmanuel Macron, Socialists, and Greens is conceivable according to the Ipsos analysis. However, the Institute considered the prospects of a government coalition as low.
According to Harris Interactive data, it is also conceivable that the new Left Bloc, consisting of Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left Party, outperforms the RN and becomes the strongest force in the National Assembly. However, an absolute majority and the ability to govern unchecked are still far from reach for the Left Bloc.
Macron dissolved Parliament
France's Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron unexpectedly dissolved the National Assembly following the poor showing of his centrist forces and the high victory of the Right-wingers in the European elections. This decision does not concern his own position.
- In contrast to the predictions for the Rassemblement National (RN), the Left Bloc in France has shown a slight gain, potentially securing 145 to 175 seats in the upcoming Parliamentary election, according to the Ipsos Institute.
- If the election polls hold true, Marine Le Pen's right-wing national party and its allies could only garner 175 to 205 seats in Parliament, falling significantly short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority.
- Emmanuel Macron's camp, following the Left Bloc in the election polls, could potentially secure 118 to 148 seats in Parliament, while the moderate wing of the Republican Party, not joining the coalition with RN, is projected to have 57 to 67 seats.
- The Harris Interactive Institute, in agreement with Ipsos, suggests that a collaboration between the Centre-Left of President Macron, Socialists, and Greens could result in a relative majority in Parliament, although an absolute majority and governance without constraints remain elusive for the Left Bloc.
