France election - France: Right-wing nationalists sink further in election polls
In new opinion polls before the decisive round of the French Parliament election this Sunday, the leading right-wing party of Marine Le Pen, Rassemblement National (RN), and its allies are sliding further behind. An Ipsos Institute survey shows the RN and its allies only at 175 to 205 seats in the Parliament, while 289 seats are needed for an absolute majority. A Harris Interactive survey saw the Right-wingers and their allies at 185 to 215 seats.
The new Left Alliance ranks second according to the Ipsos survey with 145 to 175 seats. The President's camp follows in third place with 118 to 148 seats. The moderate wing of the Republican party, which did not join the cooperation with the RN as agreed by party leader Éric Ciotti, comes in with 57 to 67 seats.
According to Harris Interactive data, the Left Alliance could reach 168 to 198 seats, surpassing the government camp with 115 to 145 seats. The moderate Republicans come in with 32 to 63 seats after this survey.
With these poll numbers, there is at least a mathematical possibility for a majority for a faction or alliance beyond the Rassemblement National. Although the Left Party and the President's camp had ruled out a coalition before the election, a collaboration of the Center-left with Socialists and Greens is thinkable according to the Ipsos analysis. However, the Institute assessed the prospects for a government coalition as low.
According to Harris Interactive data, it is also conceivable that the new Left Alliance, consisting of Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left Party, overtakes the RN and becomes the strongest force in the National Assembly. However, an absolute majority and the ability to govern unchecked are still far from reach for the Left Alliance.
French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron surprisingly dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections after the disappointing performance of his centrist forces and the high victory of the Right-wingers in the European elections. It's not about his own position, Macron stated.
Harris Interactive Ipsos-Poll
- Despite the sliding numbers, right-wing nationalists led by Marine Le Pen and her party, Rassemblement National (RN), are forecasted to secure between 175 to 205 seats in the upcoming Parliamentary election in France.
- The Left, united in a new alliance, ranks second in the polls, with a potential of securing between 145 to 175 seats in the Parliamentary election on Sunday.
- Emmanuel Macron's camp, the incumbent President, follows in third place in the Parliamentary election polls, with an estimated 118 to 148 seats.
- If the polls are accurate, a coalition between the Center-left, Socialists, and Greens could potentially form a majority in Parliament, according to an Ipsos analysis.
- The new Left Alliance, consisting of Greens, Communists, Socialists, and the Left Party, could potentially overtake Rassemblement National and become the strongest force in the National Assembly, as suggested by Harris Interactive data.
- In the Harris Interactive poll, the moderate wing of the Republican party, which did not join the cooperation with the RN, is projected to secure between 32 to 63 seats in the Parliamentary election.
- This weekend's Parliamentary election in France is set to be a significant event, with many possibilities for the Right-wing nationalists, the Left, and the incumbent President's camp as voters make their choice at the ballot boxes in Paris and across the country.
