Parliamentary elections - France is heading for a politically bleak future
The polling stations are open: In 501 constituencies, the question of which party will send a deputy to the National Assembly is being decided today. In the first round on the previous Sunday, 76 candidates were able to qualify directly because they had achieved an absolute majority.
What is the initial situation?
Three political blocks are facing off: Marine Le Pen's "Rassemblement National" (RN) and its allies on the right. In the middle is "Ensemble," the Macronists' camp. On the left is the "Nouveau Front Populaire" alliance. In total, 577 deputies will be elected to the National Assembly. For an absolute majority, 289 seats are required.
Will the RN soon govern?
The chances of the RN achieving an absolute majority, according to the latest polls, have decreased but are not entirely excluded. Currently, it is considered unlikely that any of the three blocks will achieve an absolute majority.
What happens if none of the blocks obtain a majority?
The President determines the Prime Minister. Normally, the Prime Minister comes from the largest faction. In the case of three roughly equal-sized camps, he would be de facto powerless, as any legislative initiative or reform could be blocked by opposing groups. So far, the Macronists have governed with a relative majority. They have relied on support from the left or conservatives – in practice, this has only worked moderately well.
What follows from this?
To keep the parliament functioning, it is expected that a broad, cross-party alliance will be necessary: Deputies from Communists to Conservatives would need to commit to cooperation for the sake of forming a majority. Such coalitions require a willingness to compromise, which is traditionally less common in the political culture of the French National Assembly. The republic's ability to govern will depend on the parliamentary discipline of the deputies – at least for a year. Then, the parliament can be dissolved and new elections held.
In the upcoming Parliamentary election in France, Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) is one of the three major political blocks competing. The RN, along with their allies on the right, aims to send deputies to the National Assembly. Emmanuel Macron's "Ensemble" camp, located in the middle, and the "Nouveau Front Populaire" alliance on the left, are the other two contenders. Despite the RN's reduced chances of achieving an absolute majority, as per recent polls, the prospect is not entirely ruled out in the Parliamentary election taking place today in 501 constituencies.
