Fracking has only limited potential for German energy supply security
According to the Ifo Institute, controversial fracking only has limited potential for Germany's energy supply security. "According to industry estimates, fracking could cover six to twelve percent of German gas consumption," said Karen Pittel, Head of the Ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Resources, on Thursday. To achieve this, however, the ban on fracking would first have to be lifted and investments made in a corresponding industry in Germany.
It could take five to nine years from the planning stage to the first extraction of natural gas, the expert added. However, in order to achieve the climate neutrality targets by 2045, a significantly lower demand for natural gas can be expected from 2030 onwards. "Due to this limited timeframe, investing in natural gas production is difficult from a business perspective," said Pittel. She referred to an expert commission, according to which extraction from non-conventional reservoirs would generally be operated for 20 to 30 years due to high development costs.
The running costs for fracking in Germany are estimated at between 26 and 43 euros per megawatt hour. The industry will be competitive if the actual price of natural gas is at the upper end of current forecasts. For the year 2030, these are between 18 and 59 euros per megawatt hour. "Private investments by companies need planning security," said Pittel. This does not exist with fracking in Germany.
In fracking, a liquid is pumped underground under high pressure. This creates cracks through which natural gas in the rock layer can escape. According to estimates, there are around 320 to 2030 billion cubic meters of technically recoverable shale gas in Germany, with the largest deposits located in Lower Saxony on the border with North Rhine-Westphalia.
Despite the potential for fracking to cover six to twelve percent of German gas consumption, as suggested by industry estimates, the Ifo Institute emphasizes its limited potential for energy supply security due to the need to lift the ban and invest in the industry in Germany. Furthermore, the expert highlights the challenge of achieving climate neutrality targets by 2045, which could make investing in natural gas production economically difficult.
Source: www.ntv.de
