Forecast indicates that CDU/CSU will secure victory, with AfD finishing in the top slot.
The CDU and CSU secure a resounding victory in the European election. Amidst various scandals, the AFD finishes in second place. The ruling coalition experiences a disappointing evening, particularly the Greens. Sahra Wagenknecht's alliance overtakes the Left.
In the 2024 European election in Germany, the Union emerges as the dominating force. Initial estimations from ARD and ZDF reveal that the AFD is also gaining ground and clinches the second position. The SPD ranks third. The Greens witness a significant decline and stand fourth. The FDP maintains its position while the Left experiences a significant downfall - and is surpassed by the BSW of Sahra Wagenknecht.
It's a disappointing night for the coalition government, with all three ruling parties losing voters. By the calculations, the Union sees a minor upward trend to 29.6-30% (2019: 28.9). The AFD experiences its best performance in a European election with 16.1-16.4% (11%). The SPD suffers a severe defeat, claiming 14% (15.8%). This marks the most appalling result for the Social Democrats at a nationwide election.
The Greens slide to 12-12.4% (20.5%). The FDP remains fairly steady at 4.9-5% (5.4%). The Left drops to 2.8-2.9% (5.5%), marking their worst result at European polls. The BSW snags 5.7-5.9%, making a debut.
Right-wing parties boasting positive results
Unlike German Bundestag and state elections, the European election does not have a 5% threshold. Approximately 64-66% voter turnout is anticipated. In 2019, when the German turnout was 61.4%, the country ranked fifth among the 27 EU nations. Marking the first time, 16- and 17-year-olds were allowed to vote in Germany.
The 2024 European election is the largest democratic vote globally, where 720 MEPs are elected across boundaries, with 96 seats dedicated to Germany. This election is closely monitored for its anticipated implications on the upcoming Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg state elections and next year's federal election.
In the five years since the last European election in 2019, numerous crises have put the EU on edge: a pandemic claiming thousands of lives, consequent economic crises, Russian attack on Ukraine leading to a subsequent energy crisis, heightened migration to Europe, and finally the Gaza War and extreme weather events attributed to the intensified climate crisis.
The European election serves as a crucial indicator of public sentiments before the Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg state elections in September and the federal election in the coming year.
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In the context of the European elections, Ursula von der Leyen, as the President of the European Commission, will work closely with the leading parties. Following the predictions, the CDU/CSU and the AfD are set to play significant roles in the coalition negotiations. However, the SPD, led by Olaf Scholz, faces a challenging time due to their poor performance. Alliance 90/The Greens, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, will need to regain support to maintain their influence. The CSU is expected to contribute to the Traffic Light Coalition, a potential alliance between the SPD, the Greens, and the FDP. Friedrich Merz, a prominent CDU member, may also have a role in shaping the political landscape.
