Voting Process - Following the European elections, jostling for key positions starts.
Following the European elections, the bidding process for top EU posts has started. The conservative alliance EPP urged German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday to support Ursula von der Leyen's re-election as EU Commission President. In exchange, they hope for cooperation in the European Parliament. EPP chairman Manfred Weber (CSU) said on the radio, "We're now extending our hand to Social Democrats and Liberals, waiting for a response."
Given the EPP's strong election victory, it's expected that CDU politician von der Leyen will obtain a second term as head of the influential European Commission. However, she needs the backing of other party factions, like the Social Democrats and Liberals, who may desire higher-ranking roles in return.
The contested positions are for EU Council President and EU Foreign Minister. Currently, Belgian Liberal Charles Michel, who oversees EU summits of heads of state, and Spanish Social Democrat Josep Borrell, who's been in charge of EU Foreign Minster for five years, hold these seats. Alternative candidates for the Council President post include the former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, and for Foreign Minister, the Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is being considered. Costa is a Socialist, and Kallas is a Liberal.
Christian Lindner, FDP's leader, emphasized that it's not solely about individuals on Monday. "Ursula von der Leyen holds the lead position, but she's not there yet. For us Free Democrats, it's vital to ensure that the policies of the past five years are not repeated," he said in Berlin. He mentioned specific stipulations like abandoning new European community debts and a policy permitting the combustion engine to remain operational.
To remain as EU Commission President, von der Leyen must receive a qualified majority proposal for re-election from the European Council (chiefly composed of heads of state and government). This would involve, in addition to the existing 13 heads of state and government from her party, support from at least three more heads of government from significant member states. Subsequently, an official election takes place in the European Parliament.
Given the anticipated outcome, the German CDU and CSU will hold the most influence, as the EPP is anticipated to have 185 seats (up from 176 of 705), making them the dominant party faction. The Social Democrats, second-strongest with 137 mandates (down from 139), are expected to retain their position. The Liberals, meanwhile, may drop to 79 seats (down from 102), while the previously right-wing populist party alliances ECR and ID are projected to have 73 seats (up from 69) and 58 seats (up from 49), respectively.
The ex-AfD MPs are not incorporated into this equation. They will be categorized as non-aligned parties since they were recently expelled from the ID faction before the European election. The rationale for this involved a handful of disparaging statements by AfD candidate Maximilian Krah about the SS and a China espionage affair involving one of Krah's staff members. On Monday, other newly elected AfD MPs declined to include Krah in the new delegation. This development might allow for alliances with other far-right groups.
Possible contenders are Italy's right-wing Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy) and Marine Le Pen's French party Rassemblement National - both of which won the European election in their respective countries.
The Greens, who experienced a significant setback because of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine, are predicted to have only 52 seats (down from 71) in the upcoming parliament. The Left should see minimal change with 36 seats (unchanged from their previous count of 37).
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After securing a strong victory in the European elections, the EPP advocates for Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and President Emmanuel Macron (France) to support Ursula von der Leyen's (CDU) re-election as EU Commission President, seeking cooperation in the European Parliament. Manfred Weber (CSU), the EPP chairman, expressed anticipation for a response from the Social Democrats and Liberals, who may seek higher-ranking roles in return.
In light of the anticipated election results, there's speculation that von der Leyen will secure a second term as head of the European Commission, but with the support of other party factions. The contested positions are for EU Council President and EU Foreign Minister, currently held by Charles Michel (Belgium) and Josep Borrell (Spain), respectively. Potential alternatives include António Costa (Portugal) for Council President and Kaja Kalla (Estonia) for Foreign Minister.
Christian Lindner, FDP's leader, underscores the importance of policies over individual figures, stating that von der Leyen's re-election must be conditional on abandoning new European community debts and a policy allowing the combustion engine to continue in operation. To secure her re-election, von der Leyen needs a qualified majority proposal from the European Council, which may involve support from at least three additional heads of government in significant member states.
Given the EPP's projected dominance with 185 seats (up from 176), the German CDU and CSU will yield significant influence. Meanwhile, the Liberals could potentially drop to 79 seats (down from 102), and right-wing populist alliances, like ECR and ID, may have 73 and 58 seats, respectively. Notably, the expelled AfD MPs will be categorized as non-aligned parties and may explore alliances with far-right groups.
These potential alliances could include Italy's Fratelli d'Italia and Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, both of which emerged victorious in their national elections. On the other hand, the Greens, hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine, may have only 52 seats in the upcoming parliament, while the Left is projected to remain stable with 36 seats.
Source: Deutschlandfunk
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