Flooding Relaxation in Bavaria and Optimism in Saxony
Germany might dodge the current flood devastation, as severe weather alerts have been lifted for Bavaria. However, Saxony is forecasted to narrowly avoid disaster, according to the country's Environment Minister. Meanwhile, crisis reports continue to pour in from various European nations, as the death toll climbs higher.
In Saxony, the Elbe levels are still rising, but there's some good news for Bavaria. The Elbe level in Dresden is approaching the six-meter mark, triggering alarm stage 3. This passage is expected between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The third highest alarm stage continues in Schóna at the Czech border gauge.
Despite this, the highest alarm stage 4 will not be reached at any Saxon Elbe gauge. A delayed flood crest is predicted in Schóna and Dresden from Wednesday, with decreasing rainfall starting to lower Elbe levels from Thursday. The Neiße, Spree, and Black Elster levels in Saxony are already showing a decline.
Environment Minister Wolfram Günther expects Saxony to escape with little to no substantial damage, complimenting her country's resilience compared to Eastern and Southeastern Europe's grim images of death and destruction. However, he cautions that the situation may still require a few more weeks for the Elbe to drop below alarm stage 1, after the Czech Republic gradually releases its dams.
Flooding in Munich anticipated around midday
The German Weather Service has withdrawn all severe rain warnings for Bavaria, following reduced rainfall intensity. However, some rivers in Bavaria may still experience flooding until midweek.
Previously, overnight rain on Monday caused water levels to rise once more in various Bavaria locations, according to the Flood News Service. The alarm stage 3 was surpassed on the Danube in Passau at midnight. It's predicted that the peak will occur throughout the day.
Likewise, the Isar's water level in Munich continued to rise, with a midday peak also expected. Similar conditions hold for other rivers like the Vils and the Inn catchment area. The flood situation is expected to ease rapidly, as mentioned by the Flood News Service.
Elbe and Spree surpassing flood levels in Brandenburg
Technical emergency services in Brandenburg (THW) stand ready, since the Oder might overflow from Poland. From midweek onward, a gradual rise in Oder water levels poses the most significant concern, shares Sebastian Gold from the THW. Although the situation remains unclear, they are preparing for every possible scenario. By Sunday, the highest alarm stage 4 will likely be activated at the Ratzdorf south of Frankfurt/Oder gauge, which may flood even low-lying areas.
To date, the Lausitzer Neiße, Elbe, and Spree rivers have overflowed. For instance, the alarm stage 1 is active at the Spree gauge in Spremberg. At this lowest of four alert stages, rivers start to overflow their banks.
Even with decreasing rainfall, no all-clear in flood-stricken Central and Eastern European regions: In Austria, additional locations in the severely affected Lower Austria state have been evacuated. Firefighters discovered a fifth victim in a flooded house. In Poland, the death toll has reached six. Overall, 21 lives have been claimed due to flooding in Austria, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Romania.
In Lower Austria, where vast portions have been submerged due to incessant rain, seven rural communities in Tullnerfeld were evacuated between Monday and Tuesday night. As of Tuesday, 26 areas remain isolated from the outside world. Since Friday, the Austrian fire service has responded to 33,000 incidents.
On Tuesday morning, firefighters discovered the body of an 81-year-old woman in a flooded house in Wurmla, Lower Austria. Two men aged 70 and 80 were found dead on Monday, trapped by rising floodwaters. Later, rescue teams located another man's body in the water in Klosterneuburg.
A firefighter in Lower Austria also perished on Sunday. Lower Austria's Governor, Johanna Mikl-Leitner, stated that the easing rain had brought "some relief." In many regions, water levels were "thankfully" receding. However, the assessment of the damage remains "not yet conclusive."
Landslides pose a threat
Meteorologists in Austria predict only scattered rain showers in the coming days. However, they warn of possible landslides, as floodwater might necessitate the movement of earth and rock formations, and entire mountain slopes could shift. The danger is not yet over in Poland, Czech Republic, and Romania either.
In Poland, authorities reported an additional two deaths on Tuesday, increasing the toll to six presumed drowned. In Romania, there have been seven casualties so far.
In the Czech Republic, where three fatalities have been confirmed so far, more than 60,000 households remain without power, primarily in the northeast of the country. Monday evening saw 500 individuals evacuated from the floods. In Romania, there have been seven deaths confirmed thus far.
Rainfall incidents becoming more frequent and powerful are being linked to global warming. A report by the multinational research group ClimaMeter reveals that the heavy downpours experienced in Central and Eastern Europe mainly stem from human-driven climate change. These extreme rain events have grown up to 20% more severe compared to the closing years of the previous century.
After the withdrawal of severe weather warnings in Bavaria, flood warnings persist for some rivers until midweek. Despite this, the Elbe level in Dresden is approaching the six-meter mark, triggering concern in the city.
In contrast, western Poland is dealing with the aftermath of landslides, with authorities reporting additional deaths, adding to the toll in Central and Eastern European regions affected by floods.
