"Fidesz's longstanding rule is under scrutiny"
ntv.de analyzes the European elections in Hungary: Fidesz, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, wins with 44.8% of the votes, but experiences a significant decrease compared to the last elections. Meanwhile, the Tisza Party of Peter Márki-Zay gains 29.6% of the votes, rising to prominence in just three months. Political scientist and social psychologist Péter Kreko discusses the implications of these results.
ntv.de: How do you assess Fidesz's victory in the European elections?
Péter Kreko: Fidesz retained their leading position but could not meet expectations. They lost two seats and now hold only 11. However, the narrower gap to the Tisza Party since the last Sunday shows strong sentiment for change in Hungary and the limitations of the Orbán regime's propaganda machine.
ntv.de: Is 44.8% still a bad result for Fidesz?
Péter Kreko: This marks their worst result in European elections. Fidesz previously achieved 52% in the last elections and since 2004, they have never received less than 47%. Despite spending millions on ads and Orbán's recognition of aggressive mobilization efforts, Fidesz fell short of expectations. Nevertheless, 44.8% is significant, and a total disaster is not warranted.
ntv.de: Are the supporters of Márki-Zay seeing this as a sign of the end for Fidesz? Or is the rise of Tisza a threat to the future of Orbán and Fidesz?
Péter Kreko: The impression of an unbeatable Fidesz is now fading. Márki-Zay, an ex-Fidesz member, could inspire others to follow suit, causing uneasiness and uncertainty within the government. While the end of the Orbán regime is not yet imminent, opportunities for change are emerging.
ntv.de: What draws voters to Márki-Zay? What is the Márki-Zay formula?
Péter Kreko: Márki-Zay's credibility comes from appearing able to defeat Orbán. At the moment, that is the only thing that matters in Hungary. People are not necessarily aligned with his ideology.
ntv.de: It seems that Márki-Zay doesn't have a real program. Will that be enough to sustain the current momentum until the next elections in 2026?
Péter Kreko: For now, the Tisza Party has kept its program vague to appeal to a wide audience. However, they will soon need to take firm positions on certain issues, possibly displeasing some voters. The current momentum cannot last for two more years. Additionally, they will be represented in the European Parliament and the Budapest City Council, but not in the national Parliament, which could make reaching voters across Hungary challenging.
ntv.de: What issues will the Tisza Party confront from the government?
Péter Kreko: It will be a tough environment. Fidesz will create conflicts within the party and exert pressure from the outside, exploiting all state resources. Orban has consistently shown his ability to adapt in difficult situations. Peter Magyar has a chance to survive until 2026 and potentially become a ruling party if they win the next elections, but the journey will be long and rocky, as Fidesz has significant advantages in the illiberal regime.
ntv.de: Considering the illiberal regime and the unfair electoral system that Orban and Fidesz have established, is it even possible to defeat the government in elections?
Péter Kreko: There is currently no evidence suggesting that defeat is impossible. We have yet to see how Fidesz behaves when their power is truly threatened. This may lead to the disruption of some illiberal practices. I believe it is possible to defeat Fidesz in the challenging, unfair, and free electoral environment. Of course, it is extremely difficult, and the state may use its instruments against them.
ntv.de: How has Magyar's success impacted opposition parties?
Péter Kreko: Márki-Zay's rise has caused more harm to the opposition than the government. Of the 21 seats, only two went to left-leaning parties. The political landscape in Hungary has shifted significantly to the right. Fidesz may join an euroskeptic or far-right faction in the European Parliament, while the Tisza Party will join the European People's Party. The Hungarian Left and the Greens face a substantial challenge.
ntv.de: How will this affect their future strategies?
Péter Kreko: I don't foresee the left parties gaining strength. Instead, the election results are likely to result in further weakening of the Left. This shift means that aspects of their agenda, such as environmental and social issues, become spread across the right spectrum. Fidesz emphasizes its commitment to solidarity. Peter Magyar may adopt green and social political elements to gain substantial support.
Is the candidate leaning pro-European, but with a touch of Euroskeptic nationalism in his speech? He supports some aspects of the government's foreign policies involving the Ukraine conflict, and shares a mistrust of the US with Fidesz. His standpoint on Europe and foreign affairs resembles a softer version of Orban's views, but not a complete opposite. His perspective of Europe sees Hungary's future within the EU, while Orban views the EU as an inherent adversary.
Will the election outcome push Orban's antagonistic approach toward the EU?
Very likely, it will worsen. The European People's Party, a major player in the European Parliament, may fill Orbán's vacancy there with Peter Magyar. This shift may escalate tensions between Orbán and the European Parliament. Moreover, Hungary's EU Council presidency in the latter part of the year could also be affected. It's predicted that Orbán's obstructionist tactics, such as vetoing critical EU Council decisions, will continue to be a recurring theme.
Interview with Peter Kreko by Christian-Zsolt Varga
Read also:
- In light of Fidesz's victory with a decreased percentage in the European elections, political analyst Péter Kreko suggests that while Fidesz retained their leading position, their narrower gap to the Tisza Party since the last elections indicates a strong sentiment for change in Hungary and the limitations of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's propaganda machine.
- In the aftermath of the European elections, Hungarian opposition leader Peter Márki-Zay's Tisza Party's rise to prominence with 29.6% of the votes has left some analysts questioning if this marks the end for Fidesz, or if it poses a threat to the future of Orbán and his party.
