"Fidesz's longstanding rule faces uncertainty"
*Despite securing a win in the European elections, the Fidesz Party helmed by Prime Minister Viktor Orban faced notable losses. The swift rise of the Tisza Party of Peter Magyar signals a shifting political landscape in Hungary. What does this mean for the future of Orban and Fidesz? We ask Hungarian Political Scientist and Social Psychologist Peter Kreko for insights.
ntv.de: 44.8 percent for Fidesz - how do you assess the victory of the Orban Party in the European elections in Hungary?
Peter Kreko: Fidesz maintained its lead, but failed to meet expectations. They lost two seats, now holding 11. The significant narrowing of the gap to their biggest competitor, the Tisza Party of Peter Magyar, reveals the strong call for change in Hungary and the limits of the Orban regime's propaganda machinery.
Is the 44.8 percent vote share still a poor result for Fidesz?
This is indeed their worst showing in European elections so far. Fidesz garnered 52 percent in the last European elections and consistently earned over 47 percent since 2004. Despite investing heavily in online advertising and posters, and Orban himself acknowledging massive mobilization efforts, Fidesz did not reach expectations. However, 44.8 percent remains considerable. We should not read too much into it as a disaster for Fidesz.
Do voters advocate the end of Fidesz or does the rise of Tisza pose a real threat to the Orban regime?
The uncontested, perpetual rule of Fidesz is now in question. As a former Fidesz insider, Magyar may inspire others to follow suit, potentially leading to more disillusionment over corruption and insecurity within the regime. Although the Orban regime still appears resilient, opportunities for change have presented themselves. Yet, the end of the Orban regime is not imminent.
What captivates voters about Peter Magyar? What is the Magyar strategy?
Voters find Magyar appealing due to his apparent ability to topple Orban. That is the only thing of importance in Hungary at present. Magyar's rise does not stem from a complete alignment with his ideology. In fact, former liberal voters support his movement, despite it not being liberal in essence.
Does Magyar lack a clear agenda? Will this continue the current momentum until the next elections in spring 2026?
Initially, the Tisza Party purposely kept its agenda unspecified to appeal to a broad audience. However, they will have to take a stance on certain issues soon, which may deter some voters. The momentum cannot be sustained for two more years. Additionally, they will be represented in the European Parliament and Budapest City Council but not the national Parliament, which could make reaching out to voters nationwide a challenge.
What hurdles will Tisza encounter from the government?
The environment will be hostile. Fidesz will create internal tensions within Tisza and exert pressure from the outside, most likely using all state resources. Orbán has always shown a knack for maneuvering through difficult situations. Peter Magyar and Tisza have the potential to survive until 2026 and potentially take power after a victory. But the road ahead is long and treacherous, and Fidesz has numerous advantages in the illiberal regime that Magyar does not.
Given the illiberal regime and the biased electoral system that Orbán and Fidesz have implemented, is it even possible to defeat the government through elections?
Although the odds are difficult, there are no signs that it is impossible. We have yet to see how Fidesz responds when its power is truly threatened. This could result in disrupted illiberal practices. I believe it is possible to defeat Fidesz in this free but biased election environment, although it will be challenging, and the state may use its resources against a single party.
How has Magyar's success impacted the opposition parties?
Magyar's rise has had a more harmful effect on the opposition than the government. Out of the 21 seats, only two went to left-liberal parties. The political landscape of Hungary has largely shifted to the right. Fidesz may join a Eurosceptic or far-right faction in the European Parliament, while the Tisza Party will align with the European People's Party. The Hungarian Left and Greens now face a significant challenge.
What strategies are likely to change due to the election result?
The election result is likely to lead to further weakening of the Left. The shift in the political landscape also means aspects of their agenda, such as environmental and social policy, are now scattered across the political spectrum. Fidesz emphasizes its commitment to solidarity, and Peter Magyar may have to adopt green and social political elements to earn strong support.
Let's discuss Europe. Is Magyar a pro-European politician?*
It seems you've got a political aficionado on your hands, buddy! So, here's the skinny: dude's probably pro-Europe, but got a bit of a Eurosceptic streak in his speeches. He's cool with some of the Hungarian gov's foreign policy moves regarding Ukraine and shares a bit of suspicion towards the USA, like Fidesz does. His take on Europe and foreign policy is more a light version of Orbán's, not an opposite. But hey, Europe's not Orbán's soulmate like it is for Peter Magyar. Orbán sees the EU as a mortal enemy, while Peter dreams of Hungary's future in the EU.
And now, the kicker - the election results might just pump up Orbán's beef with the EU. Since the European People's Party rules the European Parliament, with Péter Márki-Zay taking Orbán's old seat, expect some serious tension. This could also cause some heat during Hungary's upcoming EU Council presidency in the second half of the year. So, yeah, Orbán's gonna keep throwin' wrenches into the EU machine, like he's done before. That veto of his against crucial EU Council decisions? Don't expect it to cool down anytime soon, mate!
Interview with Péter Márki-Zay by Christian-Zsolt Varga
Read also:
In light of the European elections, the Fidesz Party, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, experienced notable losses despite securing a win. The Tisza Party of Peter Magyar saw a significant rise, indicating a shift in Hungary's political landscape that may pose challenges for Orban and Fidesz in the future.
With a 44.8% vote share, Fidesz's result in the European elections was their worst showing since joining the EU. While they still remain a significant force, the narrowing gap between Fidesz and the Tisza Party signals a strong call for change in Hungary.
