New election - Fateful election: France votes on parliament
The much-anticipated parliamentary election in France has entered its decisive round. Polling stations opened at 8:00 am this morning. The French are voting on the majority relations in the National Assembly. Above all, the question is: Has President Emmanuel Macron paved the way for the Right with the surprising new election?
According to the latest polls, the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen, which is leading, will not achieve an absolute majority. The right-wing nationalists and their allies are predicted to come in second place, with 205 to 240 seats. They would thus be the strongest force in the National Assembly for the first time, but they would fall significantly short of the absolute majority of 289 seats.
The left-wing alliance formed for the early parliamentary election is in second place, according to the polls. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp is expected to suffer a humiliating defeat, according to the polls, which places it in third place.
Unclear Majority
No government-forming majority is apparent at this point. It is expected that the existing government of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will continue to function in a caretaker capacity for some time, until clarity emerges regarding the formation of a future government. This could take some time - the situation is as complicated as it has been in a long time.
If the RN manages to secure an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint a premier from the ranks of the Rechtsnationalen - for example, RN leader Jordan Bardella. This would be a turning point in the country's history and would have significant implications for European politics.
This would mark the first 'cohabitation' in France since 1997. This means that the president and the prime minister represent different political directions.
Conservatives could be kingmakers
With a strong relative majority for the RN, it is calculated that this party will try to win over additional deputies from the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to its side in order to gain decisive power in the parliament.
The former ruling party split in the run-up to the election. Its chairman Éric Ciotti had announced an independent cooperation with the RN, but only a small number of deputies followed him. The question now is how the other deputies will behave, who in the first round of voting attracted around ten percent of the voter support.
Uncertainty
At this point, it is unclear how the alliance against the RN will actually function in practice. Since the parliamentary seats are allocated according to the majority voting system, candidates from other parties have withdrawn in over 200 constituencies where they came in third place in the first round, in order to increase the chances that the remaining candidate from a bourgeois party will defeat the RN candidate. Such a protective shield against the extreme right has been practiced in France before. Whether it will lead to a viable government is open.
The other camps - including the revitalized Socialists - have already made it clear that they do not want to govern in a national coalition with each other. Then the current government could remain in office as a caretaker government or an expert government could be appointed.
The Macron coalition could stand before a rubble pile in the power game of the President with the anticipated parliamentary election, and be represented in Parliament in significantly reduced numbers. New projects could not be brought forward by a government without a majority. France is thus threatened with political standstill.
Macron had dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections after the victory of Le Pen's Rassemblement National in the European elections in early June. The National Assembly is one of the two French parliamentary chambers. It is involved in legislation and can bring down the government through a vote of no confidence.
In the first round of voting, the far-right National Rally was leading, followed by the new Left Alliance and Macron's Center-Left coalition in third place. 76 of the 577 deputy seats had already been allocated, most of them to the RN (39) or the Left Alliance (32) - the decision in the remaining constituencies will only be made in the runoff election.
- Despite leading in the polls, Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National is predicted to fall short of an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
- The left-wing alliance, following theCentrist camp led by President Emmanuel Macron, is predicted to finish in second place in the parliamentary election.
- The unclear majority situation after the election means that Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne's government will continue in a caretaker capacity.
- In the event of the RN securing an absolute majority, Macron may be under political pressure to appoint a premier from the RN's ranks, like Jordan Bardella.
- The possibility of a 'cohabitation' in France since 1997 emerges, with the president and prime minister representing different political directions.
- With a strong relative majority, the RN might try to win over additional deputies from the Républicains (LR) to form a government, increasing its decisive power in the National Assembly.
- The other camps, including the revitalized Socialists, have indicated that they do not want to form a national coalition with each other, potentially leading to a caretaker government or an expert government.
