Elections in France - Fateful election: France votes on parliament
The much-anticipated French parliamentary election enters its decisive final round. The French are voting on the majority relations in the National Assembly. Above all, the question is: Will the power game of President Emmanuel Macron prevail, or will the surprising new election open the way for the Right?
Disappointing results for RN in latest polls
The latest polls show no absolute majority for the Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen leading the way. According to this, the far-right and their allies would come in with 205 to 240 seats. They would become the strongest force, but they would significantly miss the absolute majority of 289 seats in the National Assembly.
The new left-wing alliance formed for the advance parliamentary vote is predicted to come in second place. President Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp is expected to suffer a humiliating defeat and rank third.
Macron under pressure
No government-forming majority is apparent before the final round of the parliamentary election. It is expected that the existing government of Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne will continue to function in a caretaker capacity until clarity about the formation of a future government emerges. This could take some time - the situation is as complicated as it has been in a long time.
If the RN manages to secure an absolute majority, Macron would be under political pressure to appoint a prime minister from the ranks of the far-right - for example, RN leader Jordan Bardella. This would mean that France would have its first cohabitation since 1997, which means that the president and prime minister represent different political directions. This would be a turning point in the country's history and would have significant implications for European politics.
Conservatives could be kingmakers
With a strong relative majority for the RN, it is calculated that this party will try to attract further deputies from the bourgeois-conservative Républicains (LR) to its side in order to gain decision-making power in the parliament.
The former ruling party had split in the run-up to the election. Its chairman Éric Ciotti had announced an independent cooperation with the RN, but only a small number of deputies followed him. The question now is how the other deputies will behave, who in the first round had attracted around ten percent of the voter support.
Threat of standstill
It is currently unclear how effective the alliance against the RN will be in practice. Since the parliamentary seats are allocated according to the majority vote, many candidates from the other parties have withdrawn in over 200 constituencies where they came in third place in the first round to increase the chances that the remaining candidate from a bourgeois party will defeat the RN candidate. Such a protective wall against the extreme right has been practiced in France before. Whether it will lead to a viable government is open.
The other camps - including the resurgent Socialists - have already made it clear that they do not want to govern in a national coalition with each other. Then the current government could remain in office as a caretaker government or a technocratic government could be appointed.
The Macron coalition could stand before a pile of ruins in the parliament after the president's poker game with the anticipatory parliamentary election, and could only be represented in a significantly reduced number. New projects could not be initiated by a government without a majority. France is threatened with political standstill.
Macron had dissolved the National Assembly and announced new elections after the victory of Le Pen's Rassemblement National in the European elections in early June. The National Assembly is one of the two French parliamentary chambers. It is involved in legislation and can bring down the government through a vote of no confidence.
However, in the first round of the elections, the Right-wing Nationalists were leading once again, followed by the new Left-wing coalition and Macron's Center-right bloc in third place. 76 of the 577 parliamentary seats had already been allocated, the most for the RN (39) and the Left-wing coalition (32).
- Despite disappointing results in recent polls, Right-wing nationalists led by Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) are poised to secure a significant number of seats in the French parliamentary election.
- Emmanuel Macron's centrist camp faces potential humiliation, as they are predicted to rank third in the election, putting pressure on the president to make a significant political choice.
- If the RN secures an absolute majority, Macron may be forced to appoint a prime minister from their ranks, leading to France's first cohabitation since 1997 and having significant implications for European politics.
- If the conservative Républicains (LR) choose to support the RN, they could become critical Kingmakers, potentially giving the far-right party decisive power in the parliament.
- However, the alliance against the RN is uncertain, as candidates from other parties withdrew in some constituencies to form a protective wall, but the viability of a viable government remains unclear.
- In the event of a National Coalition being unwanted, the current government could continue in a caretaker capacity, or a technocratic government could be appointed, risking a political standstill in France.
- Following Macron's dissolution of the National Assembly and announcement of new elections, the Right-wing Nationalists are once again leading, causing potential headaches for the President and his coalition.
