Top Jobs EU - Fate-decision: European Parliament approves von der Leyen
Can she make it? Or will she fall short at the last meters? When Ursula von der Leyen steps up to the podium at the European Parliament in Strasbourg this morning around 9:00 AM, it's all or nothing. She has one last chance to convince Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). The European Council has already nominated her for a second term as President of the European Commission, but the European Parliament has the final say.
A few hours after her speech, at 1:00 PM, over 700 MEPs will be called upon to cast their votes. If less than half of the valid votes support her, Ursula von der Leyen's EU career as a former German Minister is over for now. The EU heads of state or government must propose a new candidate within a month.
No majority guaranteed
The situation is particularly uncomfortable for von der Leyen due to the majority relations in the new European Parliament. Her European People's Party (EPP) group, which includes the CDU and CSU, won the European election in early June and currently holds 188 seats in the new parliament. However, they need almost twice as many votes for a majority. These votes are to be won through an informal coalition with European Social Democrats and Liberals, as well as concessions to the Greens.
Contentious issue: combustion engine cars
Von der Leyen repeatedly emphasizes that she stands by her "Green Deal" program for a climate-neutral EU by 2050 despite opposition from the economy and agriculture. However, she must remain vague on the details. German Liberals are demanding that she reconsider the already approved ban on new combustion engine cars after 2035 before her election. The Greens could potentially block her election due to this issue.
Matters are further complicated by the fact that the voting is done in secret ballot, and there is no factional obligation. In her 2019 election, von der Leyen received just over ten votes more than necessary.
Contentious ruling the day before the vote
Just before the vote on this Wednesday, there was a ruling by the EU Court regarding the European Commission's handling of multi-billion euro Corona vaccine contracts. The ruling states that the Commission violated EU law by withholding information. This could be problematic for von der Leyen, as she has been accused of lack of transparency in her tenure by parliamentarians for years.
MPs from the left-wing camp called for a postponement of the vote until affected documents are released. However, it is considered extremely unlikely that this proposal will gain the necessary support in the entire parliament.
The Commission responded to the ruling by stating that they had largely won the case in the parts where they were judged. It was stated that the criticism of the court focused mainly on confidentiality interests of the pharmaceutical industry, which the Commission could not ignore without fearing damage as a negotiating partner.
If the vote takes place as planned at 1:00 PM, there should be clarity about the future of Ursula von der Leyen by around 3:00 PM after the vote count. According to the latest rumors from national delegations, the EPP, Liberals, Social Democrats, and Greens should receive between 365 and 420 votes - but these surveys were conducted before the EU Court ruling.
Orban submits proposal
Anticipated in the EVP camp is that at least with her reaction to Viktor Orban's diplomatic solo move in Ukraine politics, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen managed to score points with some critical MEPs. She had announced after Orban's Moscow trip that high-ranking representatives of her institution would no longer travel to EU Council of Ministers meetings organized by the Hungarian EU presidency.
Previously, von der Leyen had faced heavy criticism for her handling of Orban. The EU Commission was even recently sued by the Parliament because, in the view of a majority of MEPs, it inappropriately released EU funding for Hungary.
Moreover, MEPs must also ask themselves whether they want to risk plunging the EU into political chaos in the current global political situation. Even ardent opponents of von der Leyen can currently name no one else who has a realistic chance of gaining more votes in the Parliament than she does. Additionally, she at least fulfilled a requirement this year by running as the Spitzenkandidat for the office and meeting a demand set by the Parliament itself.
Link to Livestream Agendas
- Despite facing opposition from the economy and agriculture, Ursula von der Leyen reiterates her commitment to her "Green Deal" program for a climate-neutral EU by 2050.
- German Liberals are demanding that von der Leyen reconsider the already approved ban on new combustion engine cars before her election, a potential stumbling block for her second term.
- Viktor Orban, the Hungarian Prime Minister, has been a contentious issue for von der Leyen, with the EU Commission facing criticism for its handling of funding for Hungary and high-ranking representatives not attending EU Council of Ministers meetings organized by the Hungarian EU presidency.
- The vote for von der Leyen's second term as President of the European Commission will take place in secret ballot at the European Parliament in Strasbourg at 1:00 PM, and a majority of less than half of the valid votes is required for her to secure a second term.
- Californian State University researchers have analyzed the voting patterns of the European Parliament and predict that the EPP, Liberals, Social Democrats, and Greens should receive between 365 and 420 votes, but these surveys were conducted before the EU Court ruling.
- Hungarian MEPs, who are part of the European People's Party (EPP) group, are expected to determine if von der Leyen's reaction to Orban's diplomatic solo move in Ukraine politics will sway their vote in her favor in the upcoming European Parliament vote.
