Far-right party AfD triumphs in multiple elections, leaving Greens with losses in various regions.
The maps depicting the victories and defeats of European election contestants portray a country that is deeply divided. They also highlight the decline of the Greens and the ascent of AfD and BSW.
Overall, the Union was crowned the victor in the European election, while the SPD had a dismal performance, the Greens faced a major blow, and the AfD made considerable strides, though not as much as initially predicted in December. By examining the results of individual districts and open cities, it's possible to determine where each party's power bases lie, particularly where they have heavily invested.
The AfD's strategy was to spread their efforts across the country in the European election. They recorded no losses in any district or open city. Their most significant gains were in eastern Germany, where they emerged as the most potent force. In the Stendal district of northern Saxony-Anhalt, they climbed 13.7 points, while in the Salzlandkreis and Suhl, both in Saxony-Anhalt, their numbers surged by 12.7 points.
Their most substantial bastions can be found in the southeastern part of Germany. Their greatest success was achieved in the European city of Görlitz, when they claimed over 40% of the votes. Other regions where the AfD achieved over 35% include Saxony, Thuringia, and southern Saxony-Anhalt and Brandenburg.
Conversely, the Greens faced significant losses in every district and open city, even in their strongholds like Berlin, Freiburg, and Münster. The most considerable decline in their support was seen in western Germany as they had much to lose. In the Uckermark region of northeastern Brandenburg, for instance, their support plummeted from 4.6% to 3.3%. The northern districts of Schleswig-Holstein were also hit hard, with a loss of more than 15 percentage points. In the Schleswig-Flensburg area, they dipped by 15.4 points to a mere 15%.
Their best result was 30.3% in Freiburg. They achieved over 20% only in West German cities.
The CDU emerged victorious nationwide in the European election. When scrutinizing the performance at the district and open city levels, however, the situation becomes more complex. In some regions, the CDU gained five or more points, whereas in others, they lost in a similar amount. The Union registered substantial advances, like in northern Hesse and the Hochsauerlandkreis, where CDU leader Friedrich Merz comes from. In the east, the Union faltered, particularly outside of Berlin and Brandenburg - most severely in the Hildburghausen district in Thuringia and in Vorpommern-Rügen.
The fortresses of the CDU are mainly in western Germany, with the Thuringian Eichsfeld, a Catholic-oriented region on the border with Lower Saxony and Hesse, standing out as a notable stronghold. The CDU's top result was recorded in the Lower Saxon district of Vechta, clocking in at 50.9%. They almost but not quite reached the 50% benchmark in the Olpe area in North Rhine-Westphalia (49.8%) and Emsland in Lower Saxony on the Dutch border (49.5%).
The strongest party in Bavaria is the CSU. When assessing their gains and losses at the district level, it becomes apparent that Lower Bavaria has been a source of challenges. In Straubing-Bogen, the Christian Socialists suffered more than a ten-point loss, yet they still led with 47.9%. In Hof (+3.7 percentage points) and Nuremberg (+3 percentage points), the CSU gained the most, yet only reached 41.6% in Hof and 40.3% in Nuremberg.
Lower Bavaria is also a refuge of the CSU. However, their worst result occurred in Munich, when they garnered a mere 27.1% of votes. This was enough to secure first place in the state capital, but it was not sufficient to achieve a majority.
The SPD experienced a boost of more than 1.5 percentage points in one city: Osnabrück. If there were gains elsewhere for the Social Democrats, they were modest, especially in certain Bavarian districts. In Dresden, they gained 0.2 percentage points - the only increase in the east.
When observing the SPD's power centers, it's worth noting that their major stronghold has a social democratic vote share of less than 30%: Emden in East Frisia, with 26.3%. For the CDU, this kind of result would be less remarkable.
The FDP, known for performing poorly in European elections and holding a relatively low result compared to 2019, experienced most of its losses in eastern Germany but saw significant gains in the west. The standout result was in Düsseldorf, where top FDP candidate Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann was running. The FDP achieved an impressive improve of 2.7 percentage points to finish at 11.2%.
The FDP's strongest regions in this European election were Düsseldorf and Hochtaunus (10.2%), the only areas with double-digit figures.
The Left Party only recorded an increase in votes in Mainz, where they gained 0.3 percentage points to 4.8%. In all other districts and cities, the party experienced significant losses. The biggest loss occurred in Suhl, Thuringia, where the Left Party shrank by 12.9 percentage points to 6.6%.
The Left Party, now possessing presence predominantly in eastern Germany, mirrors the FDP's nationwide standing. Leipzig recorded the highest result for the Left at 10.5%, with Jena (9.9%), Weimar (8.9%), Erfurt (8.7%), and Rostock (8.2%) trailing close behind.
The Left Party was non-existent five years ago but its Left-Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance is now the victor across the board. The alliance's strongholds are undoubtedly in eastern Germany as demonstrated by Suhl, where the party suffered its biggest loss, but the region also produced the highest gains for the alliance, with 20.1%. Saalfeld-Rudolstadt and Mecklenburg Lake District followed, with 18.5% and 18.3% respectively.
Regarding the sum of wins and losses for the parties, the Greens were the runners up in terms of losses, shedding nearly 3 million voters from their 2019 figures. On the other hand, the newly-forged BSW alliance managed to garner an additional 2.5 million voters.
