War in Ukraine - F-16-Delivery: Destruction on the ground is the greatest danger
In Ukraine, American F-16 fighter jets are eagerly anticipated. The expectations are high, the Jets are expected to bring about a change. In the last few months, the war has not gone well for Kiev, at least on the ground. In the east, the Russians are steadily advancing, while in the north, near Kharkiv, the Ukrainians have held off the invaders and are now also engaged in costly position battles there, as is known from Donbass.
There are several reasons why the front on the ground is stalling, one of the most important being the use of glide bombs. Russian pilots drop approximately 3000 precision bombs per month on Ukrainian positions without putting themselves in danger. Almost every bomb finds and destroys its target. The F-16 is expected to prevent this, it is not the bombs but the carrier aircraft that the F-16 is supposed to intercept.
Russians also anticipate the F-16
But not only the Ukrainians are eagerly awaiting the F-16. For a simple reason: They want to break the aura of US weapons. Just like they managed to destroy or damage various Western tanks during the Ukrainian summer offensive. At that time, within a few days, tanks of different series were destroyed or damaged. The same fate the Russians now want to prepare for the F-16. On the one hand, for military reasons, as they want to continue their bombing offensive unhindered. The F-16, similar to the tanks the previous year, was loaded with expectations and hopes. If Moscow could destroy or damage several machines at the beginning of the deployment, it would be a blow against morale in Ukraine. And the allies would reconsider their support. The F-16 is the "last resort" on the way to defeat.
Rocket attacks on runways
When it comes to fighter jets, one likes to imagine air battles like in the "Top Gun" movies. Here, the F-16 – although no longer quite fresh – is significantly superior to the Ukrainian MiG-29. It would therefore be an improvement. But the greatest danger lies on the ground. The Ukrainians have already lost most of their machines on the ground and not in the air. A ratio that also existed in other wars. And here, the Russians have significantly improved their capabilities. At the beginning of July, they managed to destroy or damage four or five Ukrainian jets in just three days. The Russians have equipped their rocket troops with their own reconnaissance drones. There is no longer a step between, as soon as a unit recognizes a profitable target, it launches an Iskander missile. The Ukrainian air defense only works in some areas, others are practically defenseless. Here, Russian reconnaissance drones can almost operate unhindered and designate targets.
The F-16 makes it even easier for them. Because the US machine can only be maintained and taken off from specially prepared airfields. Himars multiple rocket launchers can be hidden in any machine hangar anywhere in the country, but for the F-16 there are only a few runways, which the Russians have to monitor. And they keep this number small. The places prepared for the F-16 are regularly attacked to destroy the installations.
Air defense has many gaps
Before the deployment of the F-16, the air defense of the country must be significantly expanded. Currently, only Kiev and a few focal points are effectively protected. The West is planning to deliver new Patriots, but it looks like the F-16 will first arrive unprotected. In addition, Kiev is losing air defense systems, and the new deliveries only close some of the gaps.
For Russian soldiers, Jets are prized targets. Just like with tanks, bounties are paid for shoot-downs. A Russian officer at the trophy exhibition in Moscow casually mentioned that his men were in high excitement when a Leopard was spotted, as everyone wanted to "fill up their piggy bank."
Controversial Protection of F-16 by NATO Territory
The ratio of numbers and expectations is disputed when it comes to the Jets. Currently, Kiev is barely expected to have fewer than 100 jets of various types. Now, 84 F-16 and about a dozen Mirage V have been promised. However, these machines and the corresponding number of pilots and personnel will not suddenly appear in the Ukraine in the summer. If Kiev can initially deploy around two dozen fighters, that would be significant. These few machines face a Russian superiority. The Russians are also preparing with air defense systems and combat jets for the new adversaries. A solution is hard to imagine. It was suggested to deploy the machines from NATO territory and to protect the Ukrainian airspace from NATO territory. However, such measures would be seen as direct involvement in the war by Moscow.
The United States of America is planning to deliver Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine, aiming to fill some of the gaps in their defense system before the deployment of the F-16 fighter jets. Moscow anticipates the arrival of the F-16s, keen to break the aura of US weapons and continue their bombing offensive unhindered. The Russians have improved their capabilities in targeting grounded Ukrainian jets, using their reconnaissance drones to designate targets and launch Iskander missiles. Despite the superiority of the F-16 in air battles, the greatest danger lies on the ground, with runways used for the F-16's takeoff and maintenance being easy targets for Russian missile attacks.
