Exploring the vacancy left by Nasrallah in Hezbollah's leadership.
Six structures south of Beirut crumble into debris following intense detonations, as Israel's military, as per their own announcement, assaults Hezbollah's Shiite militia headquarters. Hezbollah's main figurehead, Hassan Nasrallah, is reported dead by both Israel and Hezbollah subsequent to the attacks. Nasrallah's demise sets off tremors throughout the Middle East. The principal queries:
What's next for Hezbollah?
With the demise of its captivating leader, who was regarded as the strongest figure in Lebanon, Hezbollah seemingly stands decapitated. A Middle Eastern expert, Jannis Julien Grimm from the Free University of Berlin, informed ntv.de: "Nasrallah's death is a significant hit inflicted by the Israelis on Hezbollah, with impacts extending far beyond Lebanon." The absence of a leader and the almost complete annihilation of its upper echelon brings about uncertainty regarding who within Hezbollah now has the authority to issue commands, even in potential attacks against Israel. Potentially, they may wait for instructions from Iran, their principal sponsor and backer. However, Iran's response remains to be seen. Nonetheless, it is undeniable that Hezbollah has suffered its weakest and most subdued state in years after a series of devastating Israeli attacks.
Will the militia nominate a successor?
This is likely an issue of time. Hezbollah generally selects its leaders through secretive and convoluted procedures. "Hezbollah does not lack potential successors," Grimm advises ntv.de. However, a name is rumored to be in circulation for the succession: Haschim Safi al-Din, Head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, is said to be the most likely candidate. He is a cousin of Nasrallah and the father-in-law of the influential Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in 2020. Safi al-Din is believed to have been groomed for a leadership role within Hezbollah since the 1990s. According to Arab media reports, he was most recently responsible for financial affairs and daily operations within the militia.
What is the significance of Nasrallah's death?
Nasrallah was a crucial figure in the so-called "Axis of Resistance," a coalition in which Iran fights alongside allied militias in the region against their declared arch-nemesis, Israel. He was even perceived as the second-in-command after Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. According to Grimm, Nasrallah could potentially have ascended to the spiritual succession role of Khamenei for the alliance, as there are no other charismatic figures in Iran who can assume this role. Grimm told ntv.de: "If the elderly Khamenei had stepped down or passed away, the spiritual leadership of the 'Axis of Resistance' could have transferred to Nasrallah's lap, as there are no other charismatic individuals in Iran who can take on this role."
Anthony Samrani, editor-in-chief of the Lebanese newspaper "L'Orient Le Jour," argued that the killing was more significant than Soleimani's in 2020 and Osama bin Laden, leader of the Al-Qaeda terrorist network and mastermind behind the 9/11 attacks in the US. Nadav Pollak, a lecturer at the Israeli Reichman University, penned: "He was our Bin Laden, multiplied by 10. For more than 30 years, he orchestrated terrorist attacks against our civilians while aiding other terrorist organizations in refining their killing techniques against us." For his supporters, Nasrallah was almost divine.
What are the implications for the conflict with Israel?
The outcome remains uncertain, as there are multiple potential scenarios. The present leaderless organization could attempt to respond forcefully to this attack, even as a display of resilience, launching coordinated militia attacks in Iraq and Yemen, or potentially from Iran itself.
If Hezbollah fails to withdraw from the southern border with Israel as demanded, a limited ground offensive by the Israeli army cannot be ruled out to keep the pressure on the militia. However, such engagements could prove advantageous for Hezbollah, which once led a sort of guerrilla war against Israel in the south. Since Hezbollah and Hamas have been weakened significantly in the Gaza conflict, the Houthi militia in Yemen could potentially gain prominence as Tehran's ally.
What is the impact of Nasrallah's death on Lebanon?
In the tiny Mediterranean nation plagued by a government vacuum for over two years, Nasrallah's passing leaves a void of power. There is no indication as of yet from Iran, Hezbollah's principal sponsor and supporter, to fill this vacuum. Therefore, a new power struggle among various groups in the confessional-divided country is also possible. Opponents of Hezbollah may now see an opportunity to permanently dismantle Hezbollah's structures within the state and bolster government control. However, it could also result in further destabilization of the nation, igniting new sectarian conflicts, and overall chaotic conditions. Lebanon endured a brutal civil war from 1975 to 1990.
The following paragraphs shall apply to the aftermath of Nasrallah's death, as Hezbollah seeks to navigate its leadership vacuum and potential power struggles within Lebanon and beyond. It will be crucial to monitor Hezbollah's responses and Iran's role in the succession process, as both parties may significantly impact regional stability and the ongoing conflict with Israel.
