Experts see escalation averted for now after Nasrallah speech
For the first time since the massacres in Israel on October 7, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah spoke out on Friday. He praised the attacks by Islamists, in which more than 1,400 people were killed and more than 240 taken hostage, as "wise and courageous". At the same time, he emphasized that it was a "purely Palestinian action". In an assessment of the speech, Pentagon spokesman Patrick S. Ryder therefore concluded that a "broader regional conflict" in the Middle East had been "averted" for the time being.
Speaking to the BBC, the brigadier general said: "At the moment, we see this conflict as limited between Israel and Hamas." Hezbollah, which is closely allied with Iran, is considered an influential political force in Lebanon and militarily much stronger than Hamas.
When asked whether Hezbollah had been successfully deterred from entering the conflict, Ryder said: "It was of central importance to our government and our Department of Defense to prevent this conflict from escalating into a wider regional conflict. That's why we deployed additional capabilities, including two U.S. aircraft carriers, to the region to give us a variety of options and capabilities should we need to respond to a range of contingencies."
Ryder emphasized that the US was not seeking a conflict with Iran, or indeed any conflict in the region as a whole. "We are focused on containing it and returning to a stable and secure region as quickly as possible."
Disappointment for Hamas
In its analysis of Nasrallah's speech, the US think tank Washington Institute concluded that the Hezbollah leader had not only assured the international community that Iran was not responsible for any of Hamas' actions, but also signaled to the Hamas leadership that it was on its own. Nasrallah had said: "This is a purely Palestinian struggle and has nothing to do with regional or international affairs".
The experts conclude from this: "Hezbollah will not be involved in the war beyond the current border skirmishes, at least for the time being." This must be disappointing for the Hamas leadership, "which will now probably feel less secure and isolated". This could possibly even lead to Hamas being more willing to negotiate and compromise. At the same time, it is suspected that the focus of Hezbollah's objectives has shifted from "resistance" against Israel to protecting its own interests and thus also Iran's interests in the region.
Washington has also taken note of the fact that Nasrallah has not threatened to use Hezbollah's weapons against US forces. It is assumed that the US military presence in the vicinity of Lebanon has had a deterrent effect. The recent diplomatic activities of US President Joe Biden's administration in the Middle East also indicated "a longer-term determination to prevent an escalation after the war". The Hamas massacres could then also backfire on Hezbollah, according to the analysis. Many countries have come to the conclusion "that groups like Hamas and Hezbollah must be contained before another October 7 occurs".
In response to Nasrallah's speech, some analysts suggested that Hezbollah, being closely aligned with Iran, might choose to stay out of any potential wider conflict involving Israel, as Nasrallah emphasized the Palestinian nature of the conflict and distanced Iran from Hamas' actions. The USA, aware of its strategic interests in the region, has deployed additional military capabilities to prevent the conflict from escalating further, indicating a commitment to maintain stability and peace.
Source: www.ntv.de
