Experts on the Middle East are expressing concerns and anxiety.
In Lebanon, people are casually discarding their mobile phones onto the streets due to a series of explosions that have occurred, causing panic and fear. According to Middle East expert Jannis Grimm, who spoke with ntv.de, this situation mirrors a past trauma that has resurfaced in the country. He also discussed Hezbollah, which has been affected by these incidents.
ntv.de: Mr. Grimm, is there a sense of widespread fear of war among the people in Lebanon?
There are indications that the timing of the attack was chosen to prevent Hezbollah from discovering Israel's impending operation. Israel's intelligence agency was possibly aiming to maintain secrecy. Following the second attack, however, there are growing concerns about an imminent large-scale Israeli invasion.
That aligns with what Israel's Defense Minister Joav Galant stated: The emphasis of the conflict is now shifting towards the north.
This situation is reminiscent of what people in Lebanon have anticipated and feared since Hezbollah's rocket attack on the football field in the Golan in July, resulting in several child casualties. At that time, Israel did not respond. However, disabling military infrastructure, especially communication systems, is a common tactic prior to a major operation. Two Israeli divisions have been deployed to the northern border. Therefore, this perspective is plausible. People are now eagerly awaiting Hassan Nasrallah's speech later today. It is expected to contain a warning to Israel and a potential announcement of retaliation. Moreover, the Lebanese population hopes for a semblance of reassurance from Nasrallah about a probable Hezbollah response in the near future. He also needs to restore public trust. The Lebanese population is still in shock.
Simultaneously, there is a pressing need to attend to and treat the injured. Is Lebanon capable of handling this situation?
The Lebanese government has reported 20 fatalities, including two children. The number of wounded is hard to estimate, with some reports suggesting around 4,000 individuals, many of whom are civilians. Lebanon's healthcare system is inadequate to support all these patients. The country is in the midst of a severe financial and economic crisis, dominated by a cartel of corrupt oligarchs and militias. Public electricity and essential infrastructure are barely functioning, leaving only private generators to keep the situation somewhat manageable. The only saving grace is the solidarity among the people. The Lebanese population is extremely resilient, offering financial aid, labor, and support in whatever way possible.
Many volunteers are documented as assisting in clinics.
It is widely known that the healthcare system in Lebanon is in disarray, mainly due to the economic crisis. In certain areas of the country, Hezbollah itself provides medical care. They operate hospitals and provide medical personnel while serving as service providers. Consequently, it is unsurprising to find medical professionals among the casualties.
Because in those regions, you cannot function without being affiliated with Hezbollah?
Hezbollah effectively serves as a state within a state in certain areas of Lebanon, particularly in the southern part of the country and the Bekaa Valley. They offer medical and social services, maintaining their own banking system. Frequently, Hezbollah is labeled as a terrorist organization due to its military wing, but it also functions as a political party, a social movement, and a network of institutions. In many parts of the country, civil servants, rescue workers, and other daily life employees often align with Hezbollah or even serve as militiamen with a pager on hand. They were among the victims in the recent explosions. My Lebanese contacts who have been valuable sources for my research for years are now gripped by fear and apathy, regardless of their association with Hezbollah. People are discarding their phones, radios, civil pagers, and even other devices onto the street as they are frightened that they may detonate. Israel's message is clear: none are exempt and anyone could be a target.
With an estimated 1,000 explosions across the country, the number of fatalities appears to be minimal.
This appears to be deliberate. The attack resulted in a large number of wounded - partially blind, handless, or hip-less. The explosives were designed to induce victims to read messages on their pagers, putting the devices close to their faces. Consequently, many victims required eye removals, hand or finger amputations. These grisly images of mutilated eyes revive the trauma of 2020 in Lebanon with full force.
Are you referring to the massive explosion in Beirut's port?
The largest non-nuclear blast in history. In August 2020, with more than 200 casualties and thousands injured, these images served as a symbol of this century's tragedy, which was etched into people's memories at the time. These images have resurfaced almost identically, bringing back the full force of the trauma.
Therefore, in your opinion, the primary objective of the attack was to inflict as many injuries as possible?
The traumatization is undeniably part of the strategy. The intense shock, the fear it generates, and the demoralization of Lebanese society are key components of the attack, particularly after the second wave yesterday. The explosive device in the radios was more substantial than in the pagers. According to reports, there were also explosions in private solar panels and telecommunications shops were blown up. It remains unclear how they were prepared. Some Lebanese I know through my research were injured or were present at yesterday's explosions, but have no affiliation with Hezbollah. Many people know someone who was affected. The message Israel seems to be conveying with this attack is: We don't care where the explosion occurs - street, supermarket, or funeral - and you are not safe as long as you tolerate Hezbollah. A Lebanese contact told me, "We never thought they would outsmart us." With 'them', he referred to the brutal civil war history of Lebanon, which affected every family in some way.
The impact of damaging the Pager network on Hezbollah is less severe than commonly believed.
Over 80% of communications are handled by Hezbollah through cable lines or even more traditionally: by messengers on motorcycles delivering messages. This is a consequence of realizing that Israel, as an enemy, would always have a technological advantage. Therefore, they resorted to low-tech solutions to outsmart their high-tech opponent.
When were the pagers acquired?
The decision to acquire the pagers must have been made around five months ago. It was a strategic move in response to Israel's military operations following the Hamas massacre on October 7th. Since then, Israel has eliminated many of Hezbollah's leaders through targeted killings. This was possible because of GPS data or images from their hacked phones. Nasrallah then advised, "Get rid of your phones!" Consequently, it was decided to acquire the pagers and walkie-talkies as a backup. This information might have leaked to the Israeli side.
Did the intelligence service infiltrate the supply chain?
Initially, it was reported that the pagers were licensed in Taiwan and produced in Hungary, but the Hungarian company does not exist, only its email address. It can be assumed that the Israeli intelligence service or a supplier produced, prepared, or delivered the devices, disguised as the Hungarian company and using the Taiwanese company's license. This raises legal concerns about this attack. The explosive device was deployed, a trap set, without any knowledge of who would eventually trigger it.
What impact do their own losses have on Hezbollah?
Significant, as a fatality can be mourned and replaced by the militia. A wounded individual remains, and in a country like Lebanon, a severely injured person with physical impairments, such as lost limbs or eyesight, will be unable to support themselves or their family financially or emotionally. The organization will be responsible for their financial and emotional support, providing the opponent with more information.
Even now?
Yes, Hezbollah has done everything possible to keep their networks hidden, maintaining the utmost secrecy.
Until two days ago?
Two days ago, everyone was on the phone, checking on each other. After the numerous attacks, there were tens of thousands of calls made, causing everyone to be shaken, and everyone to ask about those affected. People went to hospitals to provide care. Everything was exposed. Moreover, the explosions forced Hezbollah to rely on their less secure phones for communication again. The past two attacks have revealed a significant gap in Hezbollah's security network. However, what the Israeli intelligence service has since learned about Hezbollah's internal structures is on a whole different level.
Interview with Jannis Grimm by Frauke Niemeyer
The first sentence: Given the situation, there are rising concerns among the Lebanese population about the possibility of a 'War with Israel' due to Israel's alleged impending operation.
The second sentence: If a 'War with Israel' were to occur, Hezbollah, with its extensive network in Lebanese society, would likely play a significant role in the country's response.
