Germany's climate goals appear unreachable to experts.

Inquiries and responses - Experts doubt Germany's progress towards climate goals.

Germany might end up emitting more climate-harming greenhouse gases than allowed by 2030, potentially missing out on its climate goals. This assertion was made by the Council for Climate Change in a report they presented in Berlin. This contradicts Economics and Climate Protection Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), who had claimed in March that Germany is on the right track.

Is Habeck being deceitful?

There's no contradiction in the data. Habeck held a more positive view of the predictions made by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) concerning the coming years, while the Council for Climate Change was more pessimistic. Germany is making progress, especially in the growth of renewable energies, a feat which Habeck himself is proud of.

The legal limit for how much Germany can emit in terms of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases between 2021 and 2030 is expected to be lowered by 47 million tons, according to recent observations - a significant reduction compared to the expected overshoot of 1.1 billion tons of carbon emissions. This outcome was the basis for Habeck's sense of pride. Nonetheless, the chairman of the Council for Climate Change, Hans-Martin Henning, pointed out the relatively low margin of error. "This is significantly less than one percent of the total budget for this period," he commented.

Why is the Council for Climate Change more pessimistic?

The panel has conducted probability calculations and does not believe it can achieve the 2030 climate goal. There are several reasons for their pessimism: they believe that the expected emissions from the energy, building, and transport sectors were undervalued, as were the restrictions in the industrial sector. The Council for Climate Change additionally mentions that the Federal Environment Agency only had data up to October. Since then, a reduction in the "Energy Transition and Climate Protection Fund" was made as a result of the Karlsruhe ruling on the federal budget. Furthermore, they highlight that they assumed higher gas prices and costlier certificates in the European Emissions Trading System at the time. In the Emissions Trading System, companies can trade with permits to discharge greenhouse gases (certificates).

What about the time after 2030?

The regulations in the Climate Protection Act state that it should become serious after 2030: by 2040, at least 88% should be accomplished, and by 2045, Germany should be entirely climate-neutral (meaning no additional emissions of greenhouse gases). However, things don't look so promising. The Council for Climate Change anticipates that the budget of carbon dioxide emissions between 2031 and 2040 will be exceeded by around 10%. With the desired climate neutrality, it's unlikely to be achieved by 2050, said the deputy chair of the Council for Climate Change, Brigitte Knopf.

What difference does this assessment from the expert council make?

On a formal level, nothing changes. According to the amended Climate Protection Act, the federal government has to act if a target is missed – but only after it has been identified as such for two consecutive years. This initial evaluation does not mandate the federal government to undertake further climate policy actions, the council states.

Nonetheless, experts have reservations. Environmental organizations and other experts consider themselves vindicated. The federal government overestimated the situation in the spring, argues Greenpeace. "In view of the upcoming budget talks, this means that the traffic light coalition urgently needs to secure future investments in the climate sector," said the director of the think tank Agora Energiewende Germany, Simon Mueller. Green MP Lisa Badum emphasized: "Storms can kill in the worst case, as we've seen this past weekend." We know that floods, droughts, crop failures increase with increasing global warming. "In light of the current flood emergency, we need the willingness to discuss an exception from the debt brake."

What should happen, according to the expert council?

It would be advisable not to wait until the second warning, says the expert council. Especially in sectors like buildings and transportation, where Germany also isn't on course with regards to European climate targets, changes must be made. Additionally, there's a need to improve the methodology for calculating climate target forecasts.

A spokesperson for the FDP-led Federal Ministry of Transport argued: "We're already working on the issue of climate protection in transport." But it's not that simple, as many vehicles with internal combustion engines are still in use. A spokeswoman for the SPD-led Federal Ministry for Building and Urban Development stated, after the climate protection act's reform, the federal government as a whole must reach its climate targets, not just individual sectors. A spokesperson for the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety insisted that with the reform, each ministry retains responsibility.

Henning from the expert council expresses the need for clarification on who is responsible for this issue in the federal government. The council suggests that the government should promptly provide more details in their regulations.