Authoritarian system - "Europe's last dictator": Lukashenko celebrates anniversaries
Minsk (dpa) – The cult of power around Alexander Lukashenko knows no boundaries on Belarus state television. Daily, the "President," as he is still respectfully referred to, is present in the news and documentaries in commemoration of his jubilee summer.
The last dictator in Europe, referred to as such, was first elected to the presidency 30 years ago on July 10. In a country still grappling with newfound independence, the former director of a state agricultural enterprise (Sovchose) promised to uphold the Soviet way of life. His inauguration is celebrated on July 20, and next month, on August 30, he will turn 70.
"Lukashenko remains firmly in the saddle due to Putin's reluctance from the Kremlin. And he seems to be preparing for the next presidential election in a year," says Belarusian political scientist Valeri Karbalevich to the German Press Agency. "I don't see any threat to his power. The end of the dictatorship is not in sight."
Karbalevich, who lives in fear of political persecution abroad, speaks of an "iron and totalitarian regime" that is focused on one person.
Long forgotten is that Lukashenko declared in 2020 that this current term would be his last. At the time, after nearly a quarter-century in power, he suppressed protests by angry Belarusians over allegations of unprecedented manipulation in the presidential election with violence.
To this day, human rights activists count over 1,000 political prisoners in the country. Although Lukashenko announced at the beginning of this month that he would release some of his critics as part of a large amnesty, only a few have been freed so far. "But there are still many arrests of dissidents," as the banned Belarusian Human Rights Center Viasna has noted.
The expert Karbalevich considers Belarus to be significantly less free than Russia. "People are arrested for things like subscribing to independent media on their phones," he says. The feared KGB, which still exists in the country that still carries out executions, holds the country at the edge.
Above all, the opposition in exile, led by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, criticizes political persecution, torture, and other crimes against humanity in Belarus. Tikhanovskaya was considered the actual winner of the presidential election at the time. Her husband Sergei remains in detention.
The wanted politician, labeled as an extremist by Minsk, is building contacts in the diaspora with an exile government made up of prominent experts for the possibility of a power shift in Belarus. And she presses for sanctions at meetings with Western state leaders, demanding that they remain and be strengthened.
Support for Putin's aggression war against Ukraine
Lukashenko smiles away the confrontation with the West – and is long since economically and politically dependent on the large neighbor Russia. Since the beginning of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine, Lukashenko has been one of Putin's most important allies. Belarus allowed Russian military forces not only to use its territory for attacks on Ukraine. The once industrially weak country is now considered an important military producer for Putin's invasion.
Experts like Karbalewitsch still see no sign that Belarus is deploying its own troops in the war. The military is poorly equipped, and the rejection of the war in the population is large, he says. However, Lukashenko is useful for the war against Ukraine from the Russian perspective. The ruler of Minsk assumes the same interpretation of the war as Putin, that it is primarily a confrontation with the USA and the West.
And just like Putin, Lukashenko occasionally makes atomic threats. Russia, which created a Union State with Belarus that was hardly active before, stationed Iskander-Rakets with nuclear warheads near the Polish border. Lukashenko boasts that Belarus, after handing over its nuclear weapons after the collapse of the Soviet Union, is now a nuclear power again. However, control over the weapons is with Putin.
Personnel Renewal in Minsk
"Lukashenko's dependence on Putin has grown. But I wouldn't say that he is Putin's marionette," says Karbalewitsch. He shows through trips to Africa or China that he is politically active abroad.
A new Foreign Minister is Maxim Ryschenkow. Ryschenkow, who previously led the presidential administration quasi, replaced Sergei Aleynik, who was considered disorganized and weak.
Lukashenko caused a stir domestically when he replaced several hardliners with relatively moderate officials in response to criticism of the inefficiency of the state apparatus. He brought back Ambassador Dmitry Krutoy from Moscow to make him head of the presidential administration. The 43-year-old economist was once the youngest Economics Minister of the country and had also served in Moscow as Belarusian Governor, holding the powers of a Vice Prime Minister. He is known as a determined manager.
Preparation for seventh term – and health issues
Experts see these personnel changes on several ministerial posts, but also the amnesty as contradictory signals from Lukashenko. "The release of the first political prisoners was welcomed in the West, but there is still an anti-Western rhetoric. A liberalization is not to be expected," says Karbalewitsch. However, the personnel renewal in the power apparatus also shows internally that the system is not petrified.
The also exiled analyst Artjom Schraibman sees it as a preparation for the seventh term. "Lukashenko wants to refresh his regime, give it momentum and dynamism through new faces, without handing over the helm to them," he writes in a contribution for the think tank Carnegie.
Karbalewitch expects Lukashenko to remain in power as long as his health permits. "It's clear that he has problems with his legs when walking," he said. In the past, there have been frequent speculations that the 69-year-old could be seriously ill. At one point, he was absent from television for several days, which sparked hopes among the opposition in exile for an end to the dictatorship. However, currently, Lukashenko is active and appears daily on television, demonstrating that he still firmly holds the reins of power.
- Despite Lukashenko's frequent appearance on Belarus state television, many people still use their cell phones to subscribe to independent news sources, facing potential arrest for doing so.
- The head of state, Alexander Lukashenko, celebrated the anniversary of his inauguration as president 30 years ago with a jubilee focused on his image in daily news and documentaries.
- The German Press Agency reported that Belarusian political scientist Valeri Karbalevich believes that Lukashenko's power is secure due to Russia's reluctance to challenge him, as Vladimir Putin prefers a stable ally in the region.
- In the run-up to the upcoming presidential election, Lukashenko, the last dictator in Europe, has shown no signs of stepping down, despite his previous declaration in 2020 that he would retire after this term.
- Human rights activists continue to call attention to the thousands of political prisoners in Belarus, including Svetlana Tikhanovskaya's husband Sergei, who remains in detention despite Lukashenko's recent declaration of a large amnesty.
- The Russian Federation's aggressive war against Ukraine has found a strong ally in Belarus, which has allowed Russian military forces to use its territory for attacks on Ukraine and now serves as a critical military producer for Putin's invasion.
- As one of Putin's most important allies, Lukashenko continues to support Russian aggression despite opposition criticisms and Western sanctions when meeting with state leaders, such as those from Germany and other European countries.
- Allegations of political persecution, torture, and other human rights abuses continue to emanate from Belarus, led by the opposition in exile, where Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the actual winner of the presidential election in 2020, is currently building contacts with representatives of the diaspora for a possible power shift in the future.
