Voting Processes - European Elections: CDU/CSU Leads, AfD Surpasses SPD and Greens
In the European polls held in Germany, the Union emerged triumphant with a significant lead over the other parties. According to predictions from ARD and ZDF, the AfD is also rising and is in second place. The SPD ranks third, while the Greens encounter considerable losses and reside at position four. The FDP remains unchanged, and the Left Party witnesses a steep decline, prompting it to be overtaken by the new party BSW of Sahra Wagenknecht. Notably, all the ruling parties in the traffic light coalition have lost votes.
As per predictions, the Union might secure 29.5-30% of the votes (2019: 28.9%). The AfD is estimated to gain 16-16.5% of the votes (11%), falling short of initial estimates. The SPD, however, is projected to plummet to 14% (15.8%). The Greens could drop to 12-12.5% (20.5%). The FDP's position remains unscathed at 5% (5.4%). The Left Party receives a meager 2.8-3% (5.5%), which marks their worst performance at a European election. BSW's debut garnered them a respectable 5.5-6% of the votes.
A turnout of 64-66% of voters is expected for this election.
In contrast to Bundestag and state elections, there isn't a minimum 5% threshold in the European elections. The predicted turnout is 64-66%, while in 2019, it was 61.4%. This was a time when Germany ranked fifth among the 27 EU countries. This was the first time 16- and 17-year-olds were allowed to vote in a European election in Germany.
There was an expected boost for right-wing parties in various EU countries. At one point, surveys showed the AfD attaining over 20%. However, scandals involving their main candidate, Maximilian Krah, and the second person on their European list, Petr Bystron, damaged the party. Both were accused of potential associations with pro-Russian and potential Chinese networks.
Bystron is being investigated for possibilities of bribery and money laundering. In response to these allegations, Krah was barred from participating in the election campaign, and the faction ID (Identity and Democracy), a right-wing party in the European Parliament, dismissed all German AfD members from the group.
Around 360 million citizens across the EU were eligible to vote, with 61 million being German citizens. A total of 720 MEPs were elected for the new European Parliament, of whom 96 were chosen from Germany. Excluding the Indian parliamentary election, it's the biggest democratic vote worldwide and the only one stretching across national boundaries. In the 2019 election, nearly 1400 candidates from 35 parties and other political associations competed for positions.
The past five years since the 2019 European election were marked by several crises: the pandemic entailing numerous deaths and subsequent economic crises, the Russian invasion of Ukraine resulting in an energy crisis, a resurgence of migration to Europe, and most recently, the Gaza conflict and meteorological disasters like droughts and floods due to the worsening climate crisis.
This European election offers a crucial indication of the general sentiment before the three state elections in Thuringia, Saxony, and Brandenburg in September, along with the 2022 federal election.
Ursula von der Leyen of the CDU is seeking a second term as the head of the EU Commission. Unlike her counterparts, she didn't apply for a seat in the European Parliament.
The CSU nominated Manfred Weber, the head of the EVP faction within the European Parliament, as its candidate. In 2019, the 51-year-old was a leading candidate for the position of EU Commission President but was outvoted - von der Leyen was chosen instead.
Katarina Barley, 55, of the SPD, is running for the second time. She's also the Vice President of the European Parliament and has held previous positions as the German Justice Minister, Family Minister, and Secretary General of the SPD.
As the representative of the Greens, Terry Reintke, a 37-year-old, heads her party's faction in the European Parliament.
Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a 66-year-old prominent defense politician, is the FDP's candidate.
For the Left, Martin Schirdewan, 44, and Carola Rackete, a non-party climate activist and refugee, are running as a combined ticket. Schirdewan is also Co-Chair of the GUE/NGL faction in the European Parliament.
Once the election concludes, many MEPs will join factions in the European Parliament, such as the Christian Democrats, Social Democrats, Liberals, Left, Greens, or one of the two right-wing groups. Some of the notable candidates include the incumbent European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen (CDU), who is seeking re-election. Additionally, the sister party CSU endorsed Manfred Weber, the head of the EVP faction in the European Parliament, as their leading candidate in the race. Katarina Barley serves as the SPD's nominee, and Terry Reintke is the Greens' representative. Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, a seasoned defense politician, is the FDP's choice. Martin Schirdewan and Carola Rackete are running on behalf of the Left.
A major task of the new parliament will be to ratify the new EU Commission, the executive branch of the Union. U.S. President von der Leyen, who's already served her term, is aspiring for another one. Despite her challenger Manfred Weber (EPP), other candidates did not attempt to secure a seat in the European Parliament. While Weber managed to secure the necessary majority in 2019, von der Leyen achieved the coveted post.
The Wagenknecht Party BSW sees two former politicians, Fabio De Masi, a former Left Bundestag member, and Thomas Geisel, a former SPD Mayor of Düsseldorf, as potential candidates.
Simultaneously, local elections took place in 8 federal states: Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt. Additional runoffs for district presidents and mayors took place in Thuringia.
