European borders are experiencing a shift towards the right.
The triumphs of the FPÖ in Austria and the AfD in Thuringia are far from being unique incidents. Experts view the success of populist parties as a common trend across the European Union. The discussion topics of migration and inflation are contributing significantly to the surge of right-wing ideologies.
The evening of the elections in Austria echoed Thuringia's election night. Neither the AfD in eastern Germany nor the FPÖ in Austria managed to capture control. Nevertheless, the shock in other political circles was considerable, given the pronounced shift towards the right. However, this electoral success is far from an isolated event within Europe. Analyzing EU countries reveals that the triumph of populist parties is a widespread phenomenon.
Nicolai von Ondarza, a European expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), highlights the crucial factor behind this trend as a critical stance on migration. In the Netherlands, the right-wing PVV of Geert Wilders emerged victorious. The AfD performed exceptionally well in the eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, and the migration-critical BSW also achieved double-digit results from scratch.
Poland's national-conservative PiS party is the strongest single party in the EU with its rigid refugee policy. Denmark's shift towards the right was thwarted only because the Social Democratic government itself implemented an isolationist policy. Right-wing, migration-critical governments can be found in countries like Slovakia, Hungary, and Italy.
Furthermore, von Ondarza also identifies inflation as a contributing factor to the right-wing trend. A sense of insecurity and loss has spread throughout Europe, which is intensified by a stagnant economy in many EU countries and identity crises. Post-election surveys in Brandenburg by Infratest dimap revealed that the AfD was disproportionately supported by men, individuals with low educational attainment, and those who feel economically weak.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz has consistent pointed out that the success of right-wing parties is now a trend in almost all wealthy western countries - from the USA to Norway. A controversy has also emerged in the Netherlands over the extent to which internationalization of degree programs has gone too far, as young Dutch individuals struggle to study in their own language in their home country.
Right-wing parties are capitalizing on such debates, particularly among younger voters. "Partly, this is because populist parties are far more active on social networks, where young people get their information," notes SWP expert von Ondarza. "Right-wing parties are currently perceived as the only viable alternative to other groups," he adds, referring to the rebellious nature of young voters.
It is now evident that right-wing groups are collaborating and bolstering each other across Europe. "In Austria, the FPÖ, a right-wing populist to right-wing extremist party, was successful long before the AfD was even established," states the chairman of the European Affairs Committee in the Bundestag, Anton Hofreiter. "The right-wing extremist youth organization 'Identitarian Movement' also gained a foothold in Austria before it could establish itself in Germany," emphasizes the Green politician. Right-wing networks are strengthening each other across borders.
Additionally, there is a gradual normalization process due to often compulsory cooperation with far-right governments. SPD MEP Katarina Barley had cautioned against this in relation to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. However, since Meloni is essential for EU decisions and also holds pro-European views, Chancellor Scholz coordinates with her. Far-right politicians in other countries interpret this as evidence that warnings about them are baseless. The Rassemblement National in France and the AfD are also relying on voters becoming increasingly accustomed to them through numerous elected local representatives. The supposed "firewall" that other parties have against the AfD at the federal and state levels is the first to fall on the local level. Green politician Hofreiter accuses conservative parties, such as in Austria, of having followed right-wing extremists for years and adopting their language and slogans. "This has not stopped right-wing extremists in any way. Instead, the opposite has happened. Right-wing populist and right-wing extremist positions have been normalized."
For a long time, national conservative governments like those in Hungary were more isolated in the EU. SWP expert von Ondarza recalls that Austria faced sanctions when the FPOe first joined the government. "But when the Wilders party came to power in the Netherlands recently, the protest was remarkably subdued," he states. Precisely because it's a Europe-wide issue, an adaptation process has been underway for quite some time. For example, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also appointed representatives of Meloni's party to the new commission.
Despite the Eu Commission's appointment of representatives from Italy's right-wing, migration-critical government to the new commission, the FPÖ in Austria remains a significant player in the populist movement. Their success in Austrian elections, much like the AfD's in Thuringia, is a testament to the widespread influence of populist parties across the European Union.
