EU Statistics Agency Warns of Population Decline Despite Immigration Inflow
The future of the European Union looks set to see a decrease in its population. From calculations made by the EU's statistical office Eurostat, it's expected that the EU's population could shrink by 4.2% to 432.2 million by 2070, even if the average annual net migration of 1.2 million people continues.
If no new immigrants or emigrants are taken into account, that percentage would rise drastically to approximately 20-35% decrease, reducing the population to 358.4 million. Currently, the EU has 451.4 million people as of January 1, 2023, a number important for political planning during the upcoming European elections.
If net migration were to be significantly increased - let's say 33% from the current level of 1.2 million people per year – then the population would swell. It would reach 465.5 million by 2070, a 3.1% growth in comparison to the present.
"There's a major disparity between EU countries," stated Eurostat statisticians. Worlds apart from each other, Iceland, Malta, Luxembourg, Sweden, and Ireland are expected to experience population growth. In contrast, the eastern and southern member states are anticipated to experience population decreases. For Germany, given the baseline scenario (assuming the annual net migration of 1.2 million people continues), the population will only see a minor decline of 0.4% by 2070.
Eurostat further emphasized, "This demographic shift means that in the time to come, there'll be fewer working-age individuals facing an ever-increasing number of retirees." The measure of this old-age dependency ratio is the comparison between the number of residents aged 65 and over to 100 working-age individuals (20-64). This ratio will rise from its current 36 to 59 in 2070, according to the baseline scenario.
Among EU countries, Lithuania is predicted to have the highest old-age dependency ratio of 73, while Sweden will have the lowest with 50. Germany comes in fourth place with a ratio of 54.
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The warning of a population decline in the EU despite immigration inflow highlights the need for change in demographic patterns. According to Eurostat's calculations, the EU's expected population decrease could be mitigated by increased immigration, especially if it reaches 33% of the current level. However, the EU's statistical office also noted significant disparities among EU countries, with some anticipating population growth and others forecasted to experience population declines.
