FAQs [or] Inquiries and Responses [or] Frequently Asked Inquiries [or] Clarifications - EU experiencing growth in the aftermath of the election.
The recent surge of right-wing parties in major EU nations like Germany, France, Italy, and Spain has left many wondering if this will translate into significant changes in the politics of Brussels. Here's a brief explanation of what might happen in the upcoming developments:
Will right-wing parties dominate the EU?
In the grand scheme of things, the European Council - comprising 27 heads of state and government - holds the key to deciding the EU's future course. The European election's impact on Brussels won't be immediately visible here. Currently, the European People's Party (EPP) with 13 heads of state and government is the most influential political force in the Council. Proximity to this group is a major determinant of power in the European Union. Other right-wing leaders like Hungary's Viktor Orban are also present in the Council, but they are not part of the EPP.
Will the EPP continue to be the most influential political force in the European Parliament?
Yes, the EPP will remain the strongest party in the European Parliament. Even if all right-wing parties join forces, they would likely secure only around 200 of the future 720 seats, far from a majority. This means that even if EPP candidate Ursula von der Leyen faces a close election as Commission President, she doesn't need votes from the right-wing camp. An informal cooperation with social democrats and liberals is enough, as their alliance precedes the 2019 election.
Will the AfD find a home in the European Parliament?
The situation for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the European Parliament is still unclear. Their previously elected MPs were previously removed from the right-national ID group due to controversial comments by one of their members. It's possible that AfD's newly elected members could find a partner in the Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), led by Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, or Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National in France - both of whom won their respective elections.
Could there be the formation of a massive right-wing faction?
The formation of a new large faction is also uncertain. Le Pen is trying to forge a union with Meloni to become the second-largest faction in the European Parliament. However, Meloni is also being pursued by the EPP for potential closer cooperation. If Meloni opts for a close alliance with Le Pen, it might clash with joining forces with the EPP, with whom she's looking to get closer to the EU's center of power.
What role will Le Pen hold in the EU?
The far-right is seeing themselves as the ascending force after their strong election performance, but their influence will be more noticeable at the national level than the European one. They're not members of the European Parliament or invited to gatherings of heads of state - and will thus only have indirect influence. The election results are seen as a catalyst for changing Europe, seeking more power for national states, objecting to being told by Brussels regarding migration policy, and pursuing more protectionist trade policy. Le Pen's voice could grow louder if her party wins the upcoming French parliamentary election, compelling President Emmanuel Macron to appoint a prime minister from her ranks.
Will Meloni play a significant role in politics?
Meloni, a 47-year-old woman, is the new force in European politics after Angela Merkel's exit. As the leader of Fratelli d'Italia - one of the most influential government parties in the EU - she's acquired more clout. This will manifest at the G7 summit in a prominent role as the host. Macron and Scholz, on the other hand, were defeated in their respective elections, making Meloni an influential force in European politics.
The veracity of Meloni's moves away from her formerly rabid right-wing ideology is under scrutiny. It's unclear if she's genuinely moved closer to the center or is merely pretending. Meloni has demonstrated her reliability in foreign policy, and observers are interested in witnessing her ambition to form partnerships or engage in competition with Le Pen. If Le Pen emerges victorious in the French parliamentary election, Meloni's position as the most powerful European right-wing figure could be at risk.
The future of Europe's political landscape depends mostly on the outcomes of the upcoming elections in member states. Following the FPO's triumph in the European elections, there's a chance that they might also win the next Austrian parliamentary election, potentially leading to their appointment as the Austrian federal chancellor. The possibility of Marine Le Pen becoming the French president in 2027 is essential to consider. While right-wing parties aren't doing well everywhere, as demonstrated in Poland where the PiS had to cede power to a coalition led by the former EU Council President, Donald Tusk, the situation is different in Hungary. Fidesz, Orban's party, experienced its worst result in a European election recently.
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- Maximilian Krah, a German politician from the Alternative for Germany (AfD), is hoping to find a new home in the European Parliament after being removed from the right-national ID group due to controversial comments.
- Giorgia Meloni's win in Italy's parliamentary election has catapulted her into the European political spotlight, placing her next to influential figures like Hungary's Viktor Orban in the European Council.
- During the recent European elections, several right-wing parties, including AfD in Germany and the Brothers of Italy in Italy, advanced in many EU nations, causing uncertainty about the future influence of these parties in Brussels.
- Ursula von der Leyen, the current President of the European Commission, may face a close election as Commission President, but with a potential informal cooperation with social democrats and liberals, she doesn't need votes from the right-wing camp to secure her position.
- Emmanuel Macron, the President of France, could see his power shift if his party loses in the upcoming French parliamentary election, potentially leading to the appointment of a prime minister from Le Pen's Rassemblement National.
- The recent European elections have highlighted the varying fortunes of right-wing parties, with some, like the PiS in Poland, conceding power and others, like Fidesz in Hungary, experiencing their worst result to date.
- Despite her moderate rhetoric since becoming Italy's Prime Minister, Meloni's true motives and potential alliances are being closely scrutinized by European observers, particularly in relation to her potential relationship with Le Pen and her stance on the EU.
- Angela Merkel's departure from the political scene has left a power vacuum, allowing figures like Meloni and Orban to seize the opportunity to assert their influence in European decision-making forums like the G7 summit.
- The European Council will remain a significant player in determining the EU's future course of action, given its collective power to shape the direction of the union beyond the direct impact of the European Parliament.
- Both the upcoming Austrian parliamentary election and the possibility of Le Pen winning the French presidential election in 2027 will play crucial roles in shaping the political landscape of right-wing parties in Europe, potentially altering the balance of power within the EU.
