- Electoral races in Thuringia and Saxony nearing their culmination
This upcoming Sunday marks the end of the race towards state elections in Thuringia and Saxony: Two surveys indicate that the AfD is the most powerful force in Thuringia, potentially leading to a challenging coalition formation process. In Saxony, the CDU has a realistic chance of securing another victory, and their alliance with the SPD and Greens could even persist.
Parties stepped up their efforts to garner support during the final stretch of the campaign. Top politicians from national parties traveled to both states for closing rallies. The SPD's Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Saxony's SPD top candidate Petra Köpping shared the stage in Chemnitz, amidst loud protests. A rally by the far-right party Freie Sachsen elicited boos and whistles.
During his speech, the Chancellor emphasized the need for Germany to welcome workers from around the world. "If we don't, prosperity and the future in Germany won't thrive," he said, advocating for an open labor market, protection for refugees, and clear migration regulations. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil addressed supporters in Thuringia's Meiningen.
Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) also campaigned in Saxony, warning that the AfD could negatively impact Germany's economic standing. Habeck referred to the party as the "alternative for deindustrialization" at a Green election event in Dresden, with many companies and economic associations voicing their concerns about supporting the party.
Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder (CSU) shared the stage with CDU top candidate Mario Voigt in Thuringia's Suhl, asking his audience to consider the federal government's post-Solingen attack and Afghanistan deportation flight measures. "Do you honestly believe they would have acted if there weren't elections next Sunday?"
AfD party leader Tino Chrupalla addressed a crowd in Saxony's Görlitz, asserting that under the AfD, conditions like those seen in Mannheim's and presumably Solingen's Islamist-motivated attacks would never exist. The state should guarantee security, infrastructure, and affordable energy, and the AfD opposes any "nanny state" approach.
The ZDF Politbarometer shows the AfD at 29% in Thuringia, comfortably ahead of the CDU with 23% and BSW at 18%. The Left, currently holding the state government with Bodo Ramelow, sits at 13%, while the SPD could secure 6%. The Greens may miss out on entering the state parliament with 4%.
Similarly, a Forsa survey commissioned by RTL and ntv shows the CDU with 33% in Saxony, followed by the AfD at 30%. The Left would not represent the state parliament at 4%, while the SPD and Greens each have 6% and the BSW sits at 12%.
"A CDU-BSW-SPD coalition could currently hold a slim majority in Thuringia, but there are other possible coalitions as well," the ZDF noted. However, a CDU-BSW coalition emerging from the Left could rock the party internally. 29% of respondents in Thuringia are still undecided about their voting intentions.
In Saxony, the CDU led by Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer is at 33%, with the AfD trailing closely at 30%. The Left would remain absent from the state parliament with 4%, while the SPD and Greens each have 6%, and the BSW is at 12%.
"A continuation of the CDU, Green, and SPD coalition would have a very tiny majority, just as would an alliance between the CDU and BSW," pollsters stated. The Forsa results from Friday also showed similar trends in Saxony. 24% of respondents are still undecided about their voting intentions.
Polls carry inherent uncertainties, with waning party loyalty and last-minute voting decisions making it challenging for polling institutes to fairly analyze collected data. Polls reflect the political climate at the time of the survey but do not guarantee the election outcome.
From the perspective of pollster Manfred Güllner, the outcomes in Saxony and Thuringia are unusually unpredictable. Both incumbent leaders - Ramelow and Kretschmer - enjoy strong popularity, despite not being on supporters' voting lists. "This is a unique situation, an unfamiliar decision-making matrix, that we are not accustomed to even in the old federal states," Güllner noted during a German Press Agency panel discussion in Berlin on Thursday.
Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer anticipates that the CDU in Saxony will gain support with the migration debate. CDU Federal Chairman Friedrich Merz appears proactive in tackling the issue, and Saxony's Minister President Kretschmer has always been in the driver's seat on this matter. "I believe that this will help the CDU to secure a slight boost in support, though whether it would surpass the AfD remains to be seen."
After analyzing the polls, Manfred Güllner, a well-known pollster, expressed that the outcomes in Saxony and Thuringia are unusually unpredictable, noting the strong popularity of incumbent leaders Bodo Ramelow and Michael Kretschmer despite not being on supporters' voting lists. In Thuringia, Bodo Ramelow, the leader of the Left party currently holding the state government, has a support ratio of 13%.
