British general election - Election in Great Britain: Conservatives face insignificance
The last hope brings football to Rishi Sunak. "It's not over until it's over", posted the British Prime Minister at X. Along with it: A picture of the 44-year-old celebrating the balance of the English national team in the last minute of the EURO-eightfinals against Slovakia. It's all over when it's all over. On Thursday, Britain elects a new parliament. Sunak's post is supposed to show: Until the polling stations close, anything can still happen. Even a victory of Sunak's Conservative Party.
But the Premier stands with his demonstrative confidence increasingly alone. Even government members no longer believe in a win, and it's only about damage control now. The opposition Labour party is clearly in the lead in all polls. By the next English EURO game on Saturday, Sunak is likely to no longer be in office. The question is only: How catastrophic will it be? The Conservatives are facing a "wipeout," a fall into insignificance.
Will the Conservatives slip under 100 seats?
Every day, there are new horror stories for the party that is considered one of the most successful political forces in the western world. Some poll projections see the Conservatives with significantly under 100 seats. In 2019, they had cleared 365 of the 650 seats. As the first sitting prime minister in history, Sunak could be rejected in his constituency.
Labour leader Keir Starmer is only partly responsible for the expected success, according to experts. Many voters know little about the former head of the Crown Prosecution Service or about the goals of his Social Democrats. The Conservatives themselves are to blame. "The Tories have squandered the right to govern," the rather conservative Sunday Times opines. The Financial Times comments: "Britain needs a new beginning."
Political scientist Tim Bale calls the 14-year tenure of the Conservatives disastrous. "They have been in power for too long and can hardly or not at all point to any notable political achievements," Bale of Queen Mary University of London tells the German Press Agency. "Brexit hasn't worked out. Immigration numbers are too high from the perspective of Brexit opponents. The economy is sluggish. The state health service NHS is in crisis. And they have elected a series of hopeless politicians." It is mainly the chaos and scandals under Sunak's predecessors Boris Johnson and Liz Truss that have put off voters.
Liberal Democrats as the strongest opposition faction?
It is quite possible that the Conservatives will not even be the strongest opposition faction in the House of Commons. Along with that would come above all a huge loss of influence: The official opposition maintains a shadow cabinet, can chair committees, and gets significantly more speaking time in parliament than smaller parties.
This role could fall to the Liberal Democrats. Party leader Ed Davey is making headlines in the campaign with eye-catching stunts like Bungee-jumping to keep the party in the conversation. In the South, the "Libdems" are seen by many Conservatives as an alternative.
For the Tories, the question of what comes next after the expected election defeat is already arising. A crucial role in this is played by who will actually remain in Parliament, as expert Bale emphasizes. Several cabinet members are at risk. This includes Penny Mordaunt - world famous for carrying a sword at King Charles' coronation -, who is considered a favorite of the moderate faction.
Besides her, former Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Economy Minister Kemi Badenoch are ready for Sunak's succession. According to "The Times", websites have already been prepared for both. Braverman and Badenoch are representatives of the right-wing faction. Under their leadership, the Conservatives would develop even further into a replacement for a right-wing populist party than before, says Bale.
"Mr. Brexit" as a problem for the Conservatives
However, it is questionable whether the Conservatives can make a case for themselves in opposition. In fact, this place is already taken: by Nigel Farage, who drove Brexit forward, and his party Reform UK. With diatribes against migrants and criticism of the Conservative Party, Farage, known for his proximity to US presidential candidate Donald Trump and his reluctance towards Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, has put pressure on Sunak from the right.
In surveys, Reform is barely behind, sometimes even ahead of the Conservatives. Since only the winner of the constituency seat gets a seat in Parliament in Britain, the right-wing populists may only gain a few mandates. However, they cost the Conservatives decisive votes. "Farage is not the main reason why the Conservatives look weak", summarizes it Bale. "But he has made their already poor situation even worse."
Result of the 2019 Parliamentary Election Reform's Lead in YouGov Survey Poll Tracker from Sky News
- Despite Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's confidence, the Conservative Party is currently trailing in all polls for Thursday's Parliamentary election in Great Britain, leading many to question if Sunak will still be in office by Saturday.
- Political scientist Tim Bale from Queen Mary University of London believes the 14-year tenure of the Conservatives has been disastrous, with Brexit failing to deliver, immigration numbers high, the economy sluggish, and the NHS in crisis.
- With the Conservatives potentially facing a "wipeout," gaining significantly fewer seats than in 2019, it's not clear if they will even be the strongest opposition faction in the House of Commons.
- Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey is making headlines with eye-catching stunts, positioning his party as a potential alternative to the Conservatives in some parts of the South.
- If the Conservatives fail to win the upcoming Parliamentary election, several cabinet members, including Penny Mordaunt, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch, are reportedly preparing to challenge for Sunak's succession.
- Nigel Farage and his party, Reform UK, are also putting pressure on the Conservatives from the right, with surveys showing them barely behind or sometimes ahead of the Conservatives, potentially costing them decisive votes.
