Parliament - Election in France: right-wing nationalists could win majority
The far-right Rassemblement National could become the strongest force in the French National Assembly. According to calculations, it and its allies finished in the first round of the advanced parliamentary election in France with 33 to 34.2 percent.
The centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron came in third place with 20.7 to 22 percent. However, the number of seats each block will receive in the National Assembly will not be decided until the run-off elections on July 7.
Defeat for Macron
This result is a heavy defeat for France's President Emmanuel Macron. He had hoped to build a relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house through the advanced election. This now seems highly unlikely.
Initial projections suggest that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could have as many as 230 to 280 seats in the National Assembly, making them the strongest force. However, they may not be able to secure an absolute majority of 289 seats.
Le Pen urged her party to help it gain an absolute majority in the upcoming run-off elections. "Nothing has been won, the second round is decisive." In politics, she said, a power shift is nothing new. She warned against false alarm regarding her party. RN party leader Jordan Bardella announced that with an absolute majority in the parliament, he intended to take over the government as prime minister.
The left could also gain ground and secure between 125 and 200 seats. Macron's Liberals risk falling to 60 to 100 seats. Exact seat distribution is currently difficult to determine. Before the second round of voting, parties can still form local alliances that could influence the election outcome.
Pullout to stop the far-right?
The founder of the left-wing party called on his own candidates in certain cases to withdraw: In constituencies where the left is in third place and the far-right is in first place for the run-off elections, left-wing candidates should step down.
The Macron camp also announced: In constituencies where they finished in third place, they would withdraw in favor of candidates who could defeat the Rassemblement National.
Cooperation or confrontation?
If predictions hold true and neither camp manages to secure an absolute majority, France could face tough negotiations to form a coalition. A coming together of the politically diverse actors is currently not foreseeable. Complicating matters is the fact that the French political culture is more geared towards confrontation than cooperation.
Together, the opposition forces could potentially topple the current Macron government. However, without an agreement on cooperation, no other government could find a majority in the parliament. It is possible that the current government remains in power as a caretaker government or an expert government is appointed.
Implications for Europe
France could face political stalemate in such a scenario. A government without a majority could not advance new initiatives. A dissolution of the parliament by Macron and new elections are not possible until July 2025.
For Germany and Europe, this means that Paris, as an important actor in Europe and part of the Franco-German tandem, would suddenly not be effectively available. Instead of new initiatives, there is administration on the agenda in France. The office of President Macron remains unchanged from the election, but without a functioning government, he cannot push through his projects.
If the RN performs better than expected in the polls and secures an absolute majority, Macron would in fact be forced to appoint a Premier from the ranks of the Nationalists. The National Assembly can bring down the government. In such a scenario, Macron would significantly lose power, the Premier would become more important. Germany and Europe would have to adapt to the fact that the divided country no longer follows a clear course and becomes less reliable.
Nationalists aim to diminish EU influence
In contrast to Macron, the RN gives little importance to the long-standing cooperation with Germany. The Eurosceptic Nationalists strive to significantly reduce the influence of the European Union in France. They could try to hinder several projects in Brussels out of self-interest. They are also against EU expansion, and they are skeptical towards NATO.
As President, Macron has priority in foreign policy. If RN leader Jordan Bardella or another right-wing populist becomes Premier, he would hardly be able to continue his line unhindered.
The RN benefited from the momentum of the European election, in which the party became the strongest force in France. For years, Le Pen has been trying to "rebaptize" the RN and distance it from its right-wing extremist history and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen and his Holocaust denial.
With its soft-pedal course, she made the party electable deep into the bourgeoisie. With Jordan Bardella at the helm, there is now a fresh politician at the helm who behaves more moderately than Le Pen and is not entangled with her family clan. The party could also have profited from the uncertainty in the face of multiple global crises and frustration and disappointment with Macron.
The left-wing camp benefited from unity
President Macron and his supporters would have been harmed by the unexpected unity of the left camp in the election. He had called for cooperation against the extremes on several occasions. However, neither the conservative Republicans nor the Socialists or Greens joined forces with him for the election. The dissolution of the National Assembly was seen as irresponsible by many in France. The French and Frenchwomen also held Macron responsible for this.
The left camp scored points with the newly formed alliance, which attracted several people from the left spectrum despite internal disagreements. The fact that the leadership question, that is, who would become Prime Minister in case of a victory, was left open, may also have attracted voters who were critical of a coalition with the populist left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The voter turnout was reportedly around 65.8 to 67 percent according to the institutions. Macron told the Elysée Palace that the high voter turnout showed the will to clarify the political situation. Regarding the RN result, he said it was time to build a broad, clear democratic and republican consensus.
- Despite the strong showing of the far-right Rassemblement National in the French elections, they may not be able to secure an absolute majority in the National Assembly, requiring 289 seats.
- In Berlin, German political analysts are closely watching the French parliamentary election results, as France is an important actor in Europe and part of the Franco-German tandem.
- Jordan Bardella, the leader of the Rassemblement National, announced his intention to become prime minister if the party secured an absolute majority in the National Assembly.
- Marine Le Pen, the head of the right-wing nationalists, urged her party to gain an absolute majority in the upcoming run-off elections, stating that "nothing has been won, the second round is decisive."
- In an effort to avoid a far-right majority, some left-wing candidates in France have been called upon to withdraw in certain constituencies where they are in third place and the Rassemblement National is in first place for the run-off elections.
- In Paris, Emmanuel Macron's Liberals risk falling to 60 to 100 seats in the National Assembly, posing a potential threat to the current French government's stability and effectiveness.
- If neither the right-wing nationalists nor the centrist camp manages to secure an absolute majority in the French elections, France could face tough negotiations to form a coalition, as the French political culture is more geared towards confrontation than cooperation.
- In Brussels, the European Union is closely watching the French parliamentary election results, as the Rassemblement National, if they secure an absolute majority, could potentially aim to significantly reduce EU influence in France.
