Parliament - Election in France: right-wing nationalists ahead in first round
The right-wing Rassemblement National could become the strongest force in the French National Assembly. According to initial calculations, it and its allies finished in the first round of the advanced parliamentary election in France with 34-34.2 percent.
The centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron came in third place with 20.3-21.5 percent. However, the number of seats each block will receive in the National Assembly will not be decided until runoff elections on July 7.
A defeat for Macron
For French President Emmanuel Macron, this result is a harsh defeat. He had hoped to build a relative majority of his centrist forces in the lower house through the advanced election. This now seems highly unlikely.
Initial projections suggest that Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies could have as many as 230-280 seats in the lower house, making them the strongest force. However, they may not be able to achieve an absolute majority of 289 seats.
The left could also gain ground and secure 125-200 seats. Macron's liberals are at risk of dropping to 60-100 seats. Exact seat distribution is currently difficult to determine. Before the second round of voting, parties may still form local alliances that could influence the election outcome.
Confrontation instead of cooperation
If, as projected, none of the camps manages to secure an absolute majority, France would face tough negotiations to form a coalition. A coming together of the politically disparate actors is currently not foreseeable. Complicating matters is the fact that the French political culture is more geared towards confrontation than cooperation.
Together, the opposition forces could potentially bring down the current Macron government. However, without an agreement on cooperation, no other government could find a majority in parliament. It is possible that the current government, in such a scenario, would remain in power as a caretaker government or a technocratic government would be appointed.
Implications for Europe
France would face the threat of political stalemate in such a scenario. A government without a majority could not bring new initiatives to fruition. A dissolution of the parliament by Macron and new elections are not possible until July 2025.
For Germany and Europe, this would mean that Paris, as an important actor in Europe and part of the German-French tandem, would no longer be an effective player. Instead of new initiatives, French administration would take center stage. The office of President Macron would remain unaffected by the election, but without a functioning government, he would be unable to push through his projects.
If the RN performs better than projected and manages to secure an absolute majority, Macron would be effectively forced to appoint a premier from the ranks of the right-wing nationalists. In such a scenario, Macron would lose significant power, and the premier would become more influential. Germany and Europe would need to prepare for a fractured country that can no longer follow a clear course and is less reliable.
Nationalists want to diminish EU influence
In contrast to Macron, the RN gives little importance to the long-standing cooperation with Germany. European nationalists aim to significantly reduce the influence of the European Union in France. They could try to impede several projects in Brussels out of self-interest. Moreover, they are against EU expansion, and they are skeptical towards NATO.
As President, Macron has priority in foreign policy. However, if RN leader Jordan Bardella or another right-populist becomes Prime Minister, he would hardly be able to continue his line unhindered.
The RN benefited from the momentum of the European election, in which the party became the strongest force in France. For years, Le Pen has been trying to "baptize" the RN and distance it from its extreme past and party founder Jean-Marie Le Pen and his Holocaust denial.
With its soft-pedal course, she made the party electable deep into the bourgeois center. With Jordan Bardella at the helm, there is now a fresh politician at the forefront who behaves more moderately than Stripper Le Pen and is not entangled with her family clan. The party could also have profited from the uncertainty in the face of multiple global crises and frustration and disappointment over Macron.
The left bloc profited from unity
The surprising unity of the left camp at the election was a thorn in the side of President Macron and his supporters. He had called for cooperation against the extremes on several occasions. However, neither the conservative Republicans nor Socialists or Greens joined forces with him for the election. The dissolution of the National Assembly was criticized by many in France as irresponsible. The French and Frenchwomen also held Macron responsible for this.
The left bloc scored points with the newly formed alliance, which attracted several people from the left spectrum despite internal disagreements. The fact that the leadership question, i.e., who would become Prime Minister in case of a victory, was left open, may also have attracted voters critical of a coalition with the populist left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
The voter turnout was reportedly around 65.8 to 67 percent according to the institutions. Macron stated to the Elysée Palace that the high voter turnout showed the will to clarify the political situation. With regard to the RN result, he said it was time to form a broad, clear democratic and republican alliance for the second round.
- Marine Le Pen's right-wing populists and their allies, including the Rassemblement National, could potentially secure up to 280 seats in the French National Assembly after the parliamentary election.
- The centrist camp of President Emmanuel Macron, although coming in third place in the French parliamentary elections, may still be able to secure 60-100 seats in the National Assembly.
- Despite initial calculations suggesting a defeat for Macron, the actual seat distribution in the National Assembly will only be determined after the runoff elections on July 7.
- If none of the camps manage to secure an absolute majority, France could face tough negotiations to form a coalition, as the French political culture is more geared towards confrontation than cooperation.
- Consequences for Europe could be significant if France goes into political stalemate, as Paris would no longer be an effective player in European politics and initiatives.
- For Germany, the potential rise of right-wing nationalists in France and a decrease in influence of the EU could pose challenges and require adjustments.
- Jordan Bardella, the leader of the Rassemblement National, has been able to present a more moderate image of the party, helping to attract voters deep into the bourgeois center.
- The unity of the left bloc, despite internal disagreements, proved to be a significant factor in the parliamentary elections, potentially securing the left a larger share of seats in the National Assembly.
