The East parts ways with the West prior to upcoming state polls.

Eastern states disconnect from Western counterparts before upcoming votes.

The recent election results in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia provide a glimpse into the upcoming state elections in September. All three incumbent minister-presidents are likely to be concerned about the affect the AfD may have on their re-election bids.

Although the traffic light party may still hold hope for a turnaround at the federal level following the disappointing European election results, things look grim in these three states. It's highly likely that the AfD will emerge victorious in all of them. Additionally, the formation of coalitions excluding the recently formed Left Party (BSW) could prove to be incredibly challenging in all three states. The parliaments in Erfurt and Dresden will be re-elected on September 1st, while the one in Potsdam will follow three weeks later. With the limited time remaining, the results of the European and municipal elections in the east serve as more than just a hint for the parliamentary elections.

The assumption that voters were merely protesting against Europe with their votes doesn't hold water. On average, nearly half of voters wanted to see either the AfD or the BSW in their local parliaments. These parties were entrusted with making important decisions in the daily lives of their constituents at home.

A significant shift is happening in Saxony: With 31.8% of the votes, the AfD came in 10th place in the European election, ten points ahead of the CDU of Minister President Michael Kretschmer. Despite his popularity, Kretschmer may struggle to narrow the gap to the AfD in the state election. The current polling gap, according to the Infratest Dimap institute, is a mere four percentage points. This gap is not unbeatable if the Saxon people make their choice for the next state prime minister.

However, these results also bring concern to the CDU. For three decades, the CDU has held sway over Saxony; but in the municipal elections, they only managed to win a majority in 11 of 418 districts. In all other districts, the AfD was the most powerful party. The newly founded Left Party is also causing anxiety for the CDU: In all eleven constituencies, it was the third strongest force with mostly double-digit results and only finished behind the Greens in Dresden and Leipzig.

With a total of 12.8% of the votes like in the European election, the BSW could play a key role in the upcoming coalition negotiations: In the European election, only 6.9% of the votes went to the SPD, and the Greens received 5.9% in Saxony. It's unclear if both parties will even make it back into the state parliament. And even if they do, it might not be enough for a continuation of their current coalition with the CDU. Many Saxon CDU members find this coalition too left-wing. The Left Party could act as the kingmaker in the Free State, potentially leading to an AfD-tolerated government.

Tenuous government relationships are threatening in Thuringia. The citizens are accustomed to this situation: Minister President Bodo Ramelow has been governing with the SPD and the Greens in a minority government since 2020. Ramelow is popular, but his party received only 5.7% in the European elections in Thuringia. The BSW, on the other hand, secured third place with 15% in Suhl, matching the CDU as the second strongest party.

State chairman Björn Höcke of the AfD achieved 30.7% in the European elections. His conviction for using an NS slogan didn't appear to deter voters. The success of the BSW isn't solely due to the loss of votes from the AfD but from the vote shares of other parties. Citizens in the east seem to be responding to Wagenknecht's rejection of Ukraine aid and her calls for a more restrictive migration policy, without having to vote for the AfD.

Together, the two parties account for almost 46% of the votes in the European elections in Thuringia. Höcke had previously offered Wagenknecht a cooperation last year. However, she turned it down, stating on Sunday evening during the Elefantenrunde on ntv that she does not see all in the AfD as Nazis, but Höcke is a fascist in their eyes.

Ramelow is eyeing CDU top candidate Mario Voigt as the next Prime Minister. Voigt's party achieved 23.2% in the European elections. This is slightly better than in the surveys for the state election. However, a majority government is unlikely: The Greens are on track to pass the five percent threshold in Thuringia according to the results of the European elections and the surveys for the state election, and the SPD is relatively stable. Ramelow does not cooperate with the BSW, so Voigt hasn't ruled out a coalition with them yet.

Voigt is trumpeting the municipal election results as a CDU victory, with seven Christian Democratic candidates winning over their AfD or Free Voters counterparts in the district elections. In addition, CDU challenger Andreas Horn managed to dethrone the SPD incumbent mayor of Erfurt, the state capital. It's important to note, however, that many of the CDU's successes can be attributed more to the widespread rejection of the AfD rather than the party's own performance.

To put this into perspective, take a look at the Hildburghausen district administrator runoff, where out of 33,850 voters, a staggering third opted for Tommy Frenck, an infamous neo-Nazi with ties to the Office for the Protection of the Constitution. Frenck is also known for his flirtations with NS allusions and his involvement in the militant scene in Central Germany. The AfD wisely opted not to field their own candidate due to Frenck's presence in the race.

In Brandenburg, the AfD, infamously classified as right-wing extremist by the Office for the Protection of the Constitution, reigned supreme in the municipal elections, boasting a staggering 25.7%. They also led the way in the European elections with 27.5%. In 16 out of 18 districts and free cities across the state, the AfD took the top spot.

Second place went to the CDU, garnering a more modest 19.3% of the municipal election votes and 18.4% for the European elections. Meanwhile, the SPD, led by Minister President Dietmar Woidke, suffered a major blow, slipping to a measly 16.6% in the municipal elections and even further to 13.1% in the European elections, finding themselves beaten even by the BSW, who eschewed their own moniker in the district elections but still managed to field candidates in local lists and alliances.

Woidke, who's been distancing himself from the traffic light coalition for some time now, has clearly not been enjoying any support from his fellow party-goers. With the Brandenburg Greens seeing their European election result halved to a meager six percent, the three-party coalition of SPD, CDU, and Greens in the Mark could only muster a dismal 38% of the votes. Compare that to the 48% earned in the last Infratest Dimap survey from April, and it's clear there's a distinct downward trend for Brandenburg's Social Democrats. And just like in Thuringia and Saxony, the Left fell victim to massive losses. While the Greens remain a prominent force in the cities, the Left is on the ropes in their erstwhile stomping ground, the East, and are finding it hard to maintain their relevance.

A Divided Germany

These trends are glaringly evident in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the eastern parts of Berlin as well. The AfD emerged triumphant in the European elections, with the SPD now in a state of panic over the label of "people's party." Despite their near-full recovery of eastern German direct mandates for the Bundestag, it's unlikely they'll regain their former mantle. On top of that, the SPD is also facing strong internal opposition to their support of Ukraine's military efforts. East Germans, either out of fear or sympathy for Russia, are generally opposed to the delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

If you glance at the political map of the Federal Republic, the election results are a near mirror image of the former divide. The East is awash in blue (AfD) while the West is dominated by the black of the CDU and CSU. The AfD and BSW have both identified the eastern region as their power bases and are actively prioritizing their strategies accordingly. None of the other parties in the Bundestag seem to have followed suit, at least not based on the election results.