The Scenario - Global Perspective - Due to certain circumstances, Ukraine is engaged in offensive actions against Russia.
The Ukrainian Incursion into Kursk's Russian Region Causes Shock – Even to Moscow's Military
The unexpected Ukrainian advance into the Russian region of Kursk has left everyone incredulous – including Western allies and Russian military officials. But why is President Volodymyr Zelensky and Army Chief Oleksandr Syrsky's strategy surprising everyone? Military analyst Christian Mölling stated on the frank podcast "The Situation - international" on Friday, "We never thought the Ukrainians would be this brave and launch such an offensive." Despite the intensity of the conflict in Donbass, there are justifications for this move.
The German Institute for International and Security Affairs' research director outlined three primary factors: Ukraine is preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election and compels them to rapid peace negotiations by diminishing U.S. support. Then, seizure of Russian-occupied territory can be utilized as a bargaining chip to secure at least minimal demands. Furthermore, Russian-occupied territories function as a containment zone during the conflict, as assaults on Ukrainian cities would need to traverse greater distances. Lastly, the Ukrainians have successfully altered public perception – they are no longer portrayed as perpetual failures, but as achievers.
Ukraine's Offensive: Differing Perspectives between Kyiv and Washington
Mölling attributed the shock at Ukraine's actions to mental contrasts between decision-makers in Kyiv and strategists in Brussels or Washington, stating, "Those are fighting for survival, whereas the others have been theorizing war since the end of the Cold War." Zelensky is forced to "act with what he has." For the Ukrainians, it appears that they will maintain the buffer zone as long as they remain on the offensive, and if they can preserve it, they will have a bargaining chip. Mölling acknowledged that Ukraine will have to retreat in the eastern part of the country from the attackers. However, he does not anticipate a swift and significant Russian advance.
"Russia is striving relentlessly"
Mölling again urged easing constraints on the use of Western weapons by the Ukrainians. "The fear of escalation and red lines is essentially invalid," he said. "Russia is doing everything it can to win this conflict." The outcome of the war is crucial for the West. "It's about answering the question of how much leverage Russia holds over Europe – not just over Ukraine."
The German Society for Foreign Policy, an esteemed think tank, has weighed in on Ukraine's offensive, suggesting that President Zelensky and Army Chief Syrsky's actions may be a strategic response to potential U.S. election results and the need to secure bargaining chips.
In an analysis, the German Institute for International and Security Affairs' research director highlighted the German Society for Foreign Policy as one of the organizations closely monitoring the situation, emphasizing the importance of their insights in understanding the complex dynamics of the Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
