Draghi might become the amusing bystander.
Mario Draghi is not vying for the next EU Commission role, but he's frequently discussed as a potential President for the EU Commission. Some believe it may not be Draghi, but someone with significant influence. The previous head of the European Central Bank has a strong advocate.
For months, Italian media have been conjuring up scenarios where Mario Draghi becomes the President of the new EU Commission after the European elections. However, current leader Ursula von der Leyen intends to hang on to her position. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is also hesitant about Draghi.
The media speculating about Draghi primarily hail from anti-Meloni outlets. Furthermore, US news agency Bloomberg and European news portal Euractiv have joined the conjecture. According to them, French President Emmanuel Macron is already negotiating with EU leaders to replace von der Leyen with Draghi.
Von der Leyen is the official candidate of the European People's Party (EVP), including the CDU and CSU. She must be proposed by the European Council and elected by the European Parliament for a second term. Her endorsement will be the first hurdle: The EVP by itself won't have a majority in the European Council of Heads of State. In the European Parliament, she will need to collaborate with other factions even with a successful election outcome. Five years ago, a similar situation led to von der Leyen being chosen as Commission President instead of the CSU's Manfred Weber, EVP’s Spitzenkandidat at that time.
Besides Draghi, several other names are circulating for the position. For example, Roberta Metsola. She's the chairperson of the European Parliament and part of the EVP alongside von der Leyen.
At the end of April, "Handelsblatt” also mentioned the Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and the French Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton as other potential candidates. Plenkovic's party is also part of the EVP. Breton was previously affiliated with the French Conservatives, but has been independent for a few years. Most notably, Breton isn't on good terms with the current Commission President.
Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank and ex-Italian Prime Minister, is keeping mum while the speculation swirls. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Meloni has commented on the issue. She stated a few weeks ago to the press, "Mario Draghi is a very respected person, and I'm happy they're talking about an Italian. However, this whole debate is mere philosophy and only due to the election campaign." Meloni refrains from participating in this game. The decision will be made only after the election outcome.
Another question is if Meloni respects Draghi: Draghi has not aligned with Meloni's right-wing "Brothers of Italy" party. Nonetheless, Meloni needed to allay doubts in Brussels shortly after taking office in October 2022 that she could work with others. In Brussels, she had to convince skeptics that she could make politics.
Meloni's recent amicable relationship with von der Leyen also stands as evidence. Regardless of the issue—Ukraine, migrants, or natural disasters—Meloni wanted von der Leyen by her side.
However, with polls showing considerable gains for the Right factions in the upcoming European elections, power dynamics have shifted. Now, it's von der Leyen who is courting Meloni. In a discussion among EU summit candidates, von der Leyen remarked that she had worked well with Meloni. Moreover, Meloni is for Europe, against Putin, and in support of the rule of law. "And if that continues, we offer to work together.”
While EVP leader Manfred Weber welcomed this announcement, the European Social Democrats (SPE), including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian PD chairman Elly Schlein, vehemently opposed any collaboration with right-wing parties. The Social Democrats emphasized that they will not pick a Commission President reliant on votes from the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which also includes Meloni.
Though there aren't formal coalitions at the EU level, majorities must still be assembled. And since both the EVP and SPE are likely to lose seats in the upcoming elections, the next legislative period could require even more compromises.
In the upcoming presidential election, Draghi could be the unexpected choice Macron might reveal, someone who's non-partisan, not an EVP member, and not a Social Democrat. Macron's party, Renaissance, is part of the liberal Renew Europe group, the third largest political group in the European Parliament.
Although having Draghi as the Commission President isn't unthinkable, it's not very likely. His international respect is undeniable, as proven by Von der Leyen commissioning him in September to produce a report on EU competitiveness. This report is expected to be published after the election.
Yet, even his home country government may very well object to him given their differing views on EU reforms. While Draghi supports quick integration, Meloni wants more sovereignty for individual countries. And despite all the cheer for "discussing an Italian," these two perspectives can't coexist.
