- Discontented Minds: Where Do We Go From Here?
Voters in Thuringia and Saxony have given politics a tough task - possibly an almost insurmountable riddle. For the first time after a state election, the far-right party, AfD, is the leading force. In Thuringia, the AfD clinched this position with a wide margin over the CDU. In Saxony, it was a close race between the AfD and the CDU until the end of the voting process. However, the AfD is unlikely to govern anywhere due to a lack of partners. In contrast, the Left Party (BSW) has the potential to play a role in both states with double-digit results - provided new alliances emerge.**
The BSW's top candidate in Thuringia, Katja Wolf, displayed visible emotion as the initial projections for her party ranged from 14.5 to 16 percent of the votes. "I have goosebumps, I must admit," said the former Left Party politician and mayor of Eisenach at the BSW election party, gazing at the Erfurt Cathedral. She referred to this as a historic moment. Embracing party founder Sahra Wagenknecht repeatedly, Wolf expressed gratitude for the 'huge vote of confidence'. "We promise this country: We won't leave you alone," she said.**
AfD celebrates 'historic victory' in Thuringia
The AfD, which received 31.2 to 33.1 percent of the votes in Thuringia as per projections, significantly surpassing the CDU, did not exchange jubilant scenes with the public - it had briefly excluded all journalists from the election party. However, top candidate Björn Höcke hailed a "historic victory" upon leaving the party before heading to the state parliament. From the party venue, closed to the media, faint cheers and chants of "Höcke, Höcke" and "Now it's starting" could be heard.**
Meanwhile, AfD federal chair Alice Weidel expressed demands on television: Under normal circumstances, the strongest party would take charge of exploring options - anything else would be "defying the voters' will," Weidel said on ARD. However, the AfD is far from an absolute majority in both Thuringia and Saxony, where it just barely lagged behind the CDU of incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer, who received 31.6 to 31.7 percent of the votes.**
In Saxony, Kretschmer has a chance to remain in office by seeking coalition partners. In Thuringia, the state's leader, Bodo Ramelow, is likely to hand over the reins to the runner-up, CDU top candidate Mario Voigt, following a substantial decline in support for his Left Party. It may take several weeks to ascertain who will govern in both states. By Sunday evening, it appeared that the AfD would not be part of this decision-making process.**
If there's a common thread in this intricate election outcome, it could be this: It's a wake-up call from the discontented. Over 40 percent in both states voted for two populist parties that call everything the so-called establishment stands for into question. The ruling parties in Berlin, the traffic light parties SPD, Greens, and FDP, along with the Left, are being penalized. The Union is barely managing to stay afloat. The unfortunate irony is that the challenging governance in both states could exacerbate the frustration of many people. The political system is under significant stress, not just in East Germany, but particularly there.**
The AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht's new party, the Standing Group (BSW), are not keen on collaborating and do not want to be associated with a party deemed securely right-wing extremist by the respective domestic intelligence services in both Thuringia and Saxony. In fact, the BSW does not fit into any recognized category. Wagenknecht shares a similar stance on migration limits and rejecting military aid to Ukraine with the AfD, but she is more left-leaning socially and economically. According to pollsters, her support comes more from left-wing voters, while the AfD can count on a significant percentage of supporters with far-right views.**
"Against those in power" parties
However, both parties share the self-perception of being "against those in power". They levelled harsh criticisms against the ruling parties, especially the traffic light coalition in Berlin. Both the AfD and the BSW question the ruling parties' ability to solve problems. They present a grim picture of the nation's condition and position themselves as its saviors. "Our country is in no good shape," the BSW's founding manifesto stated.**
They touched a nerve. Confidence in traditional parties and the functioning of democracy is waning in both federal states. In the Saxony Monitor survey presented at the beginning of the year, 81 percent of participants believed that most politicians only sought the votes of voters. In a similar survey in Thuringia, the Thuringia Monitor, only 45 percent of respondents were satisfied with the practice of democracy, despite 88 percent supporting the democratic form of government.
Fears of crime and migration.
Here's the paraphrased text:
More recent issues are causing significant apprehension. As per ARD-Deutschlandtrend's figures shared this weekend, 77% of individuals in Saxony and Thuringia are extremely worried about a potential surge in crime. There's also a worry among 67% of these people that there'll be an excess of immigrants entering the country, and 55% are concerned about their capacity to preserve their current lifestyle standards. Only 39% in Saxony and 30% in Thuringia considered the economy to be in a good state, according to ARD's survey.
Three decades post-reunification, discontentment is reaching a boiling point. In the ARD survey, three-quarters of respondents in both states agreed that the West Germans have excess influence over politics and economy, and that East Germans are often treated as second-class citizens. This brewing mix of frustrations is visible in the election results.
The AfD and the BSW both contributed to undermining the "system", parliamentary processes, mainstream media, and free speech in their unique ways. Höcke, from the AfD, criticized the "cartel party rule" and "controlled" media, implying that no matter who you vote for, it makes no difference to the nation's direction. According to him, the AfD is the only exception.
Wagenknecht, founder of the BSW, argued during the campaign that the BSW entered the race to provide a viable alternative for people yearning for change, and to show discontentment towards the federal parties.
Promises of a Rebirth
Both parties made promises of initiating a "fresh start". Höcke remained adamant about becoming Minister-President and significant changes until the end, despite lacking a coalition. On the other hand, the BSW might soon find itself in a position requiring it to prove its worth in government. This, however, would be akin to mixing oil and water due to the CDU, a potential partner, having conflicting beliefs on certain issues. Wagenknecht has also established highly unachievable goals in Ukraine, Russia, and NATO policy.
She reiterated this stance on election night, stating, "What we categorically will not do is form a government that disappoints, rather we want a government that fulfills these hopes and expectations". She urged the CDU to take responsibility with this in mind.
The ARD reported on the election results, highlighting the concerns of voters in Saxony and Thuringia about crime, immigration, and economic stability. The AfD, with its promises of a fresh start and criticism of the political establishment, significantly surpassed the CDU in Thuringia, causing a stir in the political landscape. According to ARD-Deutschlandtrend's figures, 77% of individuals in Saxony and Thuringia are extremely worried about a potential surge in crime, with 67% fearing an excess of immigrants and 55% concerned about preserving their lifestyle standards. The BSW, too, has gained popularity, leveraging discontentment towards the federal parties and promising to challenge the status quo.
