Despite trailing behind Biden's 2020 margin among Black voters, a recent CNN survey indicates potential for Harris to boost her backing among this demographic.
According to CNN's latest survey, Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump among Black probable voters by a substantial margin of 63 points, with 79% supporting Harris against 16% for Trump. This is a significant improvement from Biden's 46-point advantage over Trump among registered voters in CNN's June poll, which was their last with Trump as the top contender. However, this margin falls short of the Biden-Harris campaign's 75-point edge among Black voters, as per exit polls from the 2020 election.
Since Harris entered the race, the atmosphere among Black voters regarding the election seems to have intensified. In the latest poll, 79% of Black registered voters express a firm intention to vote, up from 68% in the June poll. The intent to vote among all voters remains relatively steady at 82% in the latest poll, similar to June. Black voters now share equal enthusiasm with other voters in regards to viewing their personal vote as critically important (both at 63%), while in June, Black registered voters were less enthusiastic (57% among Black voters, 66% overall).
Harris' lead over Biden's earlier margins is a noteworthy development, given that the poll reveals strong support for Harris among the 40% of Black probable voters who view Biden's presidency as unsuccessful. Harris defeats Trump by a substantial margin of 65% to 31% amid these voters.
Trump's improved standing among Black voters relative to 2020 appears to be primarily driven by younger voters (below 60 years old). Harris leads among Black voters aged 60 and above by an almost identical margin to Biden's 2020 advantage, according to exit polls from the same group. This advantage diminishes to just 55 points for Harris among Black voters under 60, with Biden having a more substantial margin in this age group in 2020. Trump garners the greatest support among Black probable voters under 40, with 22% backing him.
The poll suggests that Harris may enhance her edges further. The majority of her supporters are firm in their commitment to her, with 92% of Black probable voters supporting her indicating their decisions are already finalized. However, among those backing other candidates, one-third remains open to changing their minds.
Harris garneres more favorable opinions among Black registered voters compared to registered voters overall, even factoring in the overwhelming Democratic lean of Black voters. Approximately 80% of Black voters hold a positive view of Harris, and Black Democrats view Harris slightly more favorably than other Democrats within the party. Black voters outside the Democratic Party exhibit significantly more positive sentiments towards Harris than independents or Republicans of different races.
Black voters unaffiliated with the Democratic Party are more likely than non-Democratic voters from other racial backgrounds to believe that Harris has improved their perception of the Democratic Party and to express feelings of pride or excitement at the prospect of a Harris win. In addition, Harris is perceived as more closely aligned with their vision of a president across various attributes tested in the poll, including attributes such as temperament, problem understanding, and leadership skills.
These sentiments extend to views on Trump as well. Non-Democratic Black voters are more likely to see Trump's presidency as unsuccessful and less likely to trust Trump over Harris on issues such as the economy and immigration.
Black probable voters largely concentrate on issues similar to the broader electorate, but the CNN polling reveals some variations within Democrats. Black probable voters are as likely as all other groups to view the economy as their primary concern (41%). However, Democratic Black probable voters are more likely to view the economy as their foremost concern (42%) compared to Democratic probable voters overall (19%). Furthermore, Democratic Black probable voters are less inclined to prioritize protecting democracy or reproductive rights as their top concern.
When asked about the most pressing economic issue, Black voters across the political spectrum align closely with the broader electorate and consider inflation as their primary concern. Nonetheless, Black probable voters are more likely to highlight employment and wages as their main economic issue and less likely to emphasize federal spending.
Approximately 90% of Black registered voters believe that the US political system requires major overhaul or significant reforms, and a substantial majority (85%) contends that the federal government does not provide sufficient support for Black Americans. Over half of Black voters (47%) believe that the federal government offers inadequate support for both White and Black Americans. However, while Black registered voters express less satisfaction with the influence of their demographic within the political process than the broader electorate, they nevertheless seem more content with their influence compared to the nationwide average (52% compared to 38%).
The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS online and by telephone from September 19 to 22, 2024, among 2,074 registered voters nationwide randomly drawn from a probability-based panel. Likely voters encompass all registered voters in the poll, which were weighted based on their predicted likelihood of voting in this year’s election. The survey included an oversampling of Black registered voters, resulting in a total of 579 participants – this group was weighted to accurately representing its population size within the survey's results. The margin of sampling error for the overall sample of registered voters is +/- 3.0 percentage points, equivalent for likely voters, and larger for subgroups. The margin of sampling error for Black registered voters is +/- 7.8 percentage points, and +/- 7.7 percentage points for Black probable voters. CNN’s Jennifer Agiesta and Ariel Edwards-Levy contributed to this report.
Given the current political climate and the results of the recent CNN poll, political strategists may need to closely observe Black voters' behavior and preferences to predict the outcome of future elections. The poll shows that Kamala Harris is leading Donald Trump among Black probable voters by a significant margin, indicating a possible shift in political allegiances within this demographic.
