Despite the challenges, EU maintains its strength over the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland)
In Saxony and Thuringia, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is giving the Union a run for their money right before the state elections. On a national level, however, the Union parties are maintaining a lead, according to the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer. The Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) could even strengthen its lead further.
Germans are mostly enjoying their summer vacations and aren't focusing on the upcoming Bundestag elections, which are currently paused. The party preferences of Germans, as per Forsa's survey for the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, have barely changed.
The only deviation is the Union parties (31%), which saw an improvement of one percentage point in the nationwide survey. While the CDU/CSU is barely ahead of the AfD in the Saxony state elections and is even nine percentage points behind in Thuringia, it is holding onto its lead at the national level.
If the Bundestag elections were to take place this week, the following results could be expected: CDU/CSU 31% (September 2021 Bundestag election: 24.1%), AfD 17% (10.3%), SPD 15% (25.7%), Greens 11% (14.8%), FDP 5% (11.5%), Left 3% (4.9%).
If Germans were to directly elect the federal chancellor, 26% would currently choose between Friedrich Merz and Olaf Scholz. This is a decrease of one percentage point compared to last week. 46% of respondents remain undecided between the two. Scholz's support among SPD voters remains considerably higher than Merz's among Union supporters, at 71% and 59% respectively.
20% of respondents believe the CDU and CSU would best manage Germany's challenges - an increase of one percentage point compared to last week. 8% trust the SPD, and 6% trust the Greens or the AfD respectively. 53% do not trust any party to address Germany's challenges.
The primary topic of the past week was the war in Ukraine, as mentioned by 49% of respondents. This was followed by the Israel-Palestine conflict with 27%, the U.S. election campaign with 18%, the Olympics with 19%, and the country's economic situation with 29%. The federal government was mentioned by 27%, immigration by 7%, and climate and environment by 7%.
The RTL/ntv Trendbarometer data was collected by Forsa, a market and opinion research institute, between August 13 and 19, 2022, on behalf of RTL Germany. A total of 2,503 respondents were surveyed. The statistical error tolerance is plus/minus 2.5 percentage points.
For more information about Forsa, click here.Forsa surveys commissioned by RTL Germany.
The RTL/ntv Trendbarometer data suggests that despite a close race in some state elections, the Union parties, managed by The Commission (CDU/CSU), are maintaining a national lead. Given the ongoing summer vacations, Germans' party preferences, as reported by Forsa, have shown minimal change.
){kind=link}