Despite reaching a potential truce in Gaza, Israel has unequivocally declared that it maintains the authority to reinitiate hostilities against Hamas.
As senior negotiators are about to convene in Cairo this weekend, there are still some unresolved issues in the negotiations regarding a potential three-phase agreement. Israel has made it clear that after the initial six-week phase, there might be a pause in the fighting, but they are not prepared to agree to a permanent ceasefire just yet.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated to Channel 14 in late June, "I am ready for a partial deal, which no one is hiding, that will bring back some of the people. But we are committed to continuing the war after the pause to achieve our goal of destroying Hamas. I will not back down on this."
Israel's stance has not changed, and this position, which does not violate the agreement being discussed, has been seen as a significant triumph for Israel in the negotiation process. This decision effectively allows both Israel and Hamas to abandon discussions once the first phase is over and resume the war.
This breakthrough was a concession by Hamas, which had been pushing for a temporary pause to seamlessly transition into a permanent ceasefire and end the war.
The sister-in-law of a deceased Israeli hostage who met with Netanyahu recently, Riki Baruch, told CNN that the key takeaway from their meeting was "the prime minister's promise to defeat Hamas and continue fighting until the last of the hostages returns."
Given that the long-awaited agreement may not assure an end to the war, US officials have adjusted their expectations and are now focusing on achieving a period of calm, even if it's just temporary, in the hopes that sufficient pressure will build up during the pause to prevent any renewal of violence.
John Kirby from the National Security Council stated last week, "What we're focused on right now is getting a ceasefire deal in place, getting the hostages home, and achieving six weeks of calm. That's really our goal right now."
A ceasefire deal that leads to a pause in the fighting would be welcomed by various people on both sides. Palestinians in Gaza, who have all been displaced and have been experiencing continuous Israeli bombing for almost a year, would receive a much-needed respite, as well as aid. Israeli families would finally get their hostages or their remains back after ten challenging months of waiting.
Significant challenges persist if an initial agreement is reached
However, reaching this initial stage of an agreement presents several complex challenges.
The way the agreement is structured, the end of the fighting is scheduled to commence in the second phase, during which Hamas would release all remaining hostages and Israeli troops would withdraw from Gaza. In the third phase, reconstruction in the enclave would begin, and the final remains of the hostages would be returned.
In announcing the framework on May 31 – which both Hamas and Israel agreed to – President Joe Biden admitted that there would be various issues left to negotiate once the temporary pause began. Hamas had hoped that the only remaining discussion would be about how many Palestinian prisoners would be released in exchange for the Israeli hostages, but Israel insisted on this topic being just one of the topics to be discussed during the transition from the first phase to secure the second.
As long as these discussions continue, Biden had stated, the ceasefire from the first phase would also continue beyond the six-week limit. Despite the best efforts of the mediators – the US, Egypt, and Qatar – to keep these talks on track to prevent a return to fighting, they could potentially fail and both sides could once again take up arms.
Hours after Biden outlined the May 31 framework, Netanyahu's office confirmed, "Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed."
"The destruction of Hamas' military and governing capabilities, the release of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel," he stated.
Hamas' leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, is believed to still be alive despite Israel's aggressive attempts to locate him. Thousands of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters also remain on the battlefield.
Only around 30 of the more than 100 remaining Israeli hostages are anticipated to be released by Hamas in the first part of a truce, and it remains unclear how many of these will still be alive, sources familiar with the discussions said.
Negotiators are still debating the number and selection of the Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange, the number of vetoes Israel would have over the names Hamas proposes for those serving longer sentences for more violent crimes, and where they would be released to.
Recent focus on Philadelphi Corridor proposal
Recently, there has been significant interest in the question of Israeli troop presence along the Egypt-Gaza border, known as the Philadelphi corridor. In the agreement being discussed, IDF forces are supposed to withdraw from densely populated areas, but Israel has argued that the border is not one and is crucial for preventing the smuggling of weapons into Gaza.
On Wednesday, Netanyahu's office denied an Israeli report that he had agreed to withdraw from the corridor.
"Achieving all of Israel's objectives for the war" requires securing the southern border, a statement from Netanyahu's office said.
Maintaining control of Philadelphi during the six-week first phase, even if in a limited manner with fewer forces, would give Israel the flexibility and options needed for later military scenarios.
CNN reported on Friday that Israel has proposed a new plan for the corridor, which Egypt is set to deliver to Hamas. Israel presented the revised plan on Thursday, according to a diplomat and an Israeli source acquainted with the talks.
The recent Israeli proposal, depicted through a map showing the deployment locations of their military forces, suggests a decrease in the number of troops and defense posts situated along Egypt's strategic boundary from Israel's initial stance, as per an Israeli insider. Egyptian representatives previously turned down the previous Israeli map and refused to transmit it to Hamas, labeling it as unenticing.
On Friday, CNN announced that Israel presented this updated plan to Egypt, aiming to send it to Hamas. According to a diplomat and an informed Israeli source, Israel introduced this revised scheme on Thursday.
The new Israeli proposal contains a map outlining the placement of their troops, showing a decrease in soldiers and military installations along the vital corridor bordering Egypt in comparison to their prior position. Beforehand, Egyptian negotiators had tossed aside the former Israeli map and refused to communicate it to Hamas, labeling it inapposite.
Hamas' reaction towards the new proposal will influence whether they send delegates to the scheduled negotiating session in Cairo on Sunday. If they attend, the two sides could collaborate in actual talks, with each team occupying a separate room, and Egyptian and Qatari mediators exchanging messages between them.
This proposal materialized due to a lengthy discussion between Netanyahu and his negotiation squad on Thursday, where Netanyahu conceded to reduce troop levels. This meeting took place a day after Netanyahu conferred with President Joe Biden, who prompted Netanyahu to show more adaptability in the Philadelphi corridor.
There exists profound contentions and contrasting viewpoints amongst Israeli security authorities and the Netanyahu administration. Extreme-right wing members of his cabinet have lambasted any truce agreement, while Israeli accounts alarm that Netanyahu is undermining the negotiations.
"The (Israeli) military desires a truce at this moment, aimed at achieving objectives like liberating hostages," a senior American official commented. "All remaining concerns are manageable. Not perfect, yet manageable."
CIA Director Bill Burns arrived in Cairo on Friday for the latest round of discussions, acting as the lead negotiator for the Biden administration.
In an attempt to seal an agreement, the US, together with co-mediators Qatar and Egypt, propounded a proposal to tackle the remaining disagreements.
Earlier this week, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who was visiting Israel, asserted that Netanyahu agreed to this proposal, while Hamas had yet to.
Recently, Hamas has accused Israel of tampering with the terms, while reports hinted that Netanyahu modified and recanted on various positions.
A senior Biden administration official characterized Israel's amendments as "clarifications," while US officials publicly and steadily maintained that an agreement is near, and only "implementation" issues remain to be explored.
However, many involved are less hopeful.
One source with knowledge of all the discussions since the last temporary truce disintegrated nearly nine months ago described the situation as "near hopeless," adding that this week's negotiations following last week's round in Doha have not yielded any significant advancements.
One major enigma is what Hamas leader Sinwar wants: a respite for his fighters and the Palestinians undergoing tremendous suffering or a larger regional conflict instigated by Iran and Hezbollah, which would further involve Israel.
Some analysts believe Sinwar is waiting to observe how Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran react against Israel for the recent assassinations of a significant Hezbollah leader in Beirut and Hamas' political leader in Tehran.
Regardless of the outcome of the weekend's talks, all indications suggest that the most Israel is willing to contemplate at present is 42 days of tranquility. After that, every bet is off.
"It's simple to be pessimistic due to its length," the senior American official acknowledged. "They could have finalized this many times but didn't."
CNN’s Jeremy Diamond and Jennifer Hansler contributed to this report.
The political aspect of the negotiations surrounding the potential three-phase agreement has been a significant focus. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has emphasized continuing the war after the pause to achieve their goal of destroying Hamas, indicating a non-negotiable stance on politics.
Despite the ongoing discussions between negotiators, Israel's position on maintaining control of the Philadelphi corridor remains unchanged, highlighting the complexities and challenges in reaching a political agreement.
