Democrats substantially surpass Republicans in airwave expenditures during pivotal House elections, with California and New York taking the forefront in financial investments.
While Democratic-leaning at a national level, California and New York both host a plethora of fiercely contested House districts that played a crucial role in the Republicans securing their narrow majority two electoral cycles ago.
External organizations exert considerable influence over the race for the House, with two major party super PACs collectively responsible for approximately 25% of the $378 million invested in advertising, while a cryptocurrency-backed super PAC chimerically supporting a diverse slate of pro-crypto candidates added an additional $15 million to the advertising fray.
The advertisements from some of the heaviest spenders touch upon the primary driving factors influencing voter decisions, such as the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and crime.
Between the 12th of September, following the conclusion of the US House primaries and the 10th of October, California and New York accounted for roughly 29% of all ad spending aimed at House races. Ten contests in California and six in New York are currently perceived as high-stakes battles by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales.
Republicans in both states are endeavoring to safeguard several seats held by legislators who unexpectedly emerged victorious in close contests in 2022 but would likely have fallen to Joe Biden two years prior.
In New York, these include the 4th Congressional District, which resides under the stewardship of newcomer Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, and a pair of upstate districts, currently represented by inaugural-term lawmakers Marc Molinaro (19th District) and Mike Lawler (17th District).
California Republicans find themselves defending several vulnerable seats in predominantly Biden-leaning territories. These include a duo of Central Valley congressmen, Reps. David Valadao of the 22nd District and John Duarte of the 13th District. Another notable figure on the list is Reps. Mike Garcia of the 27th District and Michelle Steel of the 45th District, both situated in the Los Angeles region, in addition to Rep. Kevin Calvert, whose predominantly pro-Trump 41st District in the Inland Empire just narrowly missed voting him in four years ago.
Top contests
With such a slate of high-stakes competitions looming, both California and New York have found themselves inundated with ad revenue from outside entities, while grassroots donors, spurred on by appeals to contribute to battleground races, have further bolstered the candidates' ad budgets. Between the 12th of September and the 10th of October, California saw twice as much ad spending on House races as any other state during this period.
And in the top 20 House races with the most ad spending in this timeframe, Democrats outspent Republicans by a cumulative total of over $30 million in 17 races.
The three races where Republicans led in ad spending all involved seats they were seeking to defend – Nebraska’s 2nd District, California’s 22nd, and Iowa’s 3rd District.
In a handful of races, such as D’Esposito's seat in New York; Duarte's seat in California; Pennsylvania's 7th District, held by three-term Democratic Rep. Susan Wild; Colorado's 8th District, home to freshman Democrat Yadira Caraveo; and Washington's 3rd District, where Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez is vying for a second term – Democrats established substantial advertising leads in the first month following the primaries, ranging from roughly $3 million to $4 million.
Across all House races, a few prominent outside groups from both parties accounted for a substantial portion of the ad spending totals. The top House GOP super PAC, the Congressional Leadership Fund, invested nearly $60 million, accounting for 16% of the total in this 30-day period, while its Democratic counterpart, House Majority PAC, shelled out approximately $35.5 million, which represented 9% of the spending on House races during this timeframe.
Top advertisers and issues
Combined, Congressional Leadership Fund and House Majority PAC accounted for over a quarter of all ad spending during the initial month following the primaries, and the themes of their television advertisements revealed the messaging priorities for both parties.
According to AdImpact data, Congressional Leadership Fund devoted around $42 million to broadcast TV ads within this 30-day period, with 39% of that sum allocated to advertisements that referenced immigration – easily the top-ranked issue in their advertising portfolio – and over a quarter of their ad budget designated for spots that centered on crime and taxes.
On the flip side, House Majority PAC spent more than $25 million on broadcast TV advertisements over the same duration, with abortion rights receiving the lion's share of emphasis – accounting for approximately 71% of their broadcast TV ad spend – and nearly 40% of their TV advertising budget dedicated to crime-themed advertisements, often warning against the potential criminalization of abortion. Advertisements pertaining to character accounted for around 17% of their expenditure.
Moreover, Fairshake, a super PAC funded by cryptocurrency enthusiasts, has asserted a dominant presence in the campaign, having allocated nearly $15 million in support of a bipartisan cohort of industry-backed candidates in 17 races since the final primaries. The ads highlight the candidates' economic policies and achievements on other key issues.
Looking ahead
Campaigns and outside groups customarily reserve advertising time well in advance, and these future reservations remain subject to ongoing modification as candidates and their allies adjust their booking and allocate more campaign funds.
With just three weeks left until the 2024 election results are revealed, however, House races in California and New York were poised to maintain their prominence on the political landscape, while Democrats maintained a general advantage in the remaining advertising reservations.
For the period between October 11 and the election, the aggregate ad reservations for all advertisers in House races exceed $441 million, with Democrats holding a substantial edge over Republicans by approximately $252 million to $183 million.
California, in particular, was projected to experience over $89 million in ad investments for House races during the last three and a half weeks, while New York was anticipating over $50 million – collectively accounting for approximately one-third of the entire ad spend directed towards the House race fight in the critical final phase.
The intense political rivalry in these House districts has made California and New York hotbeds for polarized politics, often tipping the balance in national elections. These contentious districts highlight the broader significance of politics at the local level.
Given the high-stakes nature of these elections, outside organizations and grassroots donors have poured substantial ad revenue into California and New York, contributing significantly to the advertising fray.
