Democratic Party Wins Landslide Victory, Alternative for Germany Suffers Setback
The upcoming state elections in Saxony and Thuringia on September 1st are poised to be a significant victory for the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). According to polls conducted by Forsa for "Stern" and RTL in both states, the BSW could potentially attain 13% in Saxony and 18% in Thuringia, making a significant impact. On the contrary, the AfD is predicted to lose significant support, dropping from 34% to 30% in Saxony and from 36% to 30% in Thuringia.
The concerns of the citizens in both states are not primarily centered on local issues. Instead, they are mainly influenced by dissatisfaction with the federal government, the war in Ukraine, and worries about inflation, crime, and immigration.
In Saxony, the CDU is projected to be the dominant party with 33%, followed closely by the AfD with 30%. The BSW would place third with 13%. Both the SPD and Greens would garner only 6% each, making a continuation of the Kenia coalition or an alliance between the CDU and BSW plausible. The Left would no longer be represented in the state parliament with 3%. The remaining 9% would be divided among other parties, including the FDP with less than 3%.
In Thuringia, the AfD is expected to be the leading party with 30%. The CDU would follow with 21%, barely improving upon its previous performance in the state election. The BSW would trail closely behind with 18%. The Left would suffer heavy losses, falling to 13%, placing them in fourth place. The SPD would make it into the state parliament with 7%, whereas the Greens would not with 4%. The remaining 7% would be shared among other parties, including the FDP with less than 3%. Forming a government would be a difficult task. The CDU would require both the BSW and the SPD to secure a majority in the state parliament.
Ministers' popularity surprises
In both Saxony and Thuringia, the public shows a clear majority (57%) favoring a reduction in the federal government's support for Ukraine. Only a small minority (15% in Saxony, 9% in Thuringia) supports Germany providing more support than before. 26% in Thuringia and 21% in Saxony believe the current level of support is appropriate. A significant majority (between 81% and 94%) of both the AfD and BSW supporters are in favor of reducing support for Ukraine.
Though citizens in both states express dissatisfaction with their state governments, the incumbent ministers are viewed more favorably than their parties.
If a direct election for the Minister President in Saxony were to take place, Michael Kretschmer would secure 50% of the votes. Joerg Urban of the AfD would receive only 14%, and Sabine Zimmermann of the BSW would garner only 2%. A significant portion of BSW supporters (56%) and SPD voters (40%) would also vote for Kretschmer, indicating potential support for the CDU.
If a direct election for the Minister President in Thuringia were to occur, Bodo Ramelow would secure 42% of the votes. Björn Höcke would only receive 16%, and Katja Wolf of the BSW would get only 6%. Only 10% of voters would support the CDU's top candidate, Mario Voigt, even among his own supporters, this would amount to only 46%. 26% of voters would not choose any of the four candidates.
The data was collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa for "Stern" and RTL Deutschland between August 7 and 14, 2024. The sample size was 1041 respondents in Saxony and 1011 respondents in Thuringia. The statistical error margin was ±3 percentage points. Learn more about Forsa here. Forsa polls commissioned by RTL Deutschland.
In the upcoming state elections in Saxony, despite the BSW's potential growth, the CDU is still predicted to be the leading party with a significant margin, obtaining 33% of the votes.
Even in the context of widespread dissatisfaction with the federal government and its allies, direct elections for the Minister Presidents in both Saxony and Thuringia indicate strong support for incumbents Michael Kretschmer and Bodo Ramelow, respectively.
