Democrat rebel Manchin stomps on his own party
A senator decides not to run again and the US Democrats are trembling even more for their majority in the chamber of Congress. But things could get even worse in 2024. Joe Manchin is rumored to be considering a presidential candidacy against US President Biden.
While the US Democrats were still celebrating their election successes on Tuesday, Joe Manchin took a stance against his own party on Thursday. "I will not be running for re-election", the senator announced in a video message. He had achieved what he wanted for West Virginia. Instead, the 76-year-old wants to travel the country and find out whether there is interest in a new movement "to mobilize the middle". In other words: not a retreat from politics, but possibly a new project.
The Democrats and the non-partisans who usually vote with them have a narrow majority in the Senate of 51 to the Republicans' 49 seats. Still. According to polls, the Democrats are at a much higher risk of losing their majority in the chamber of Congress in next year's election. If US President Joe Biden is re-elected at the same time, he and the Democrats would have a huge problem: although they hold the White House, the Republicans could pass laws on their own. For their own projects, they would need the blessing of conservative renegades.
West Virginia is deeply red Republican, but Manchin had held the seat for the Democrats since 2010. His resignation further increases the likelihood of a majority loss; it is therefore almost certain that the Senate seat will fall into Republican hands by 2030, namely those of current governor Jim Justice. The 72-year-old is not allowed to run again after two terms in office. Justice defected from the Democrats to the Republicans in 2017 and is supported by the party and former President Donald Trump. Trump is the most likely Republican presidential candidate.
Coal for West Virginia and his own pocket
Manchin also became known because he had an unusual position: the Democrats have become the political refuge of many climate protectors, but West Virginia is the second-largest coal-producing state in the USA after Wyoming. The United States burns coal for around 20 percent of its electricity, gas for 40 percent and almost 20 percent comes from nuclear power plants. Trump and the other Republican candidates for the presidential nomination aggressively advocate the view that fossil fuels should be promoted more and that environmental protection is of secondary importance. "Drill, frack, burn!" is one of the campaign slogans of Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who is running for office. After China, the USA is the world's biggest air polluter.
Manchin has long been a rebel in the ranks of the Democrats. With his one-man blockade in the Senate for over a year against efforts to promote more renewable energies and electromobility in the face of the climate crisis, he drove the party and its progressive wing in particular to white heat. Manchin argued that the package was bad for West Virginia's economy. His donors come from the fossil fuel industry. What he failed to mention was that he was probably also worried about his private business. One of his companies exclusively supplied a coal-fired power plant for decades, making a total profit of 5.6 million dollars between 2010 and 2020 alone.
In the end, Manchin relented, but at the same time crammed conservative interests into the Democrats' historic climate package: tax breaks for the rich were retained and further state areas were put out to tender for the exploitation of fossil fuels. Employees in the coal industry are being supported in gaining a foothold in the new energy sector. The environmental organization Sunrise Movement, without whose 2020 election campaign Biden would probably not be in the White House, recently called Manchin a "coal baron".
Down in the polls
After giving his approval to the legislative package in August 2022, he himself began to comment critically on it. In August, the senator said he would now lead a "relentless fight against the Biden administration's efforts to implement the law as a radical climate agenda". He emphasized that the historic legislative package - and because of it - would also grow the fossil fuel sector. However, the senator's popularity in his state declined after the bill was passed. In polls, Manchin was almost trailing behind Jim Justice, most recently with 13 percent. He would therefore have had little chance in next year's election.
According to US media, Manchin could instead consider running as a presidential candidate, for example for the "No Label" centrists around the moderate Republican Larry Hogan. They want to attract those voters who do not want to make friends with either Biden or the Republican candidates. In a poll in June, a clear majority of Americans rated the lack of cooperation between Democrats and Republicans as a "very big problem" for the country. According to polls, both Republicans and Democrats would like to see a different candidate from their party than Trump and Biden in 2024.
Manchin's announcement to sound out a potential political center in the country gives further fuel to the rumors about a candidacy. This would lead to a historic four-way battle for the US presidency. The left-wing intellectual Cornel West is also running. This alone is a cause for concern for the Democrats. In fiercely contested states, West could steal crucial votes from the left - and if Manchin joins them, possibly more from swing voters or anti-Trump Republicans.
According to the polls, Biden's election chances are already extremely shaky. In five of the six most contested states, Trump is currently leading against Biden in the polls. The president does not need Manchin's straddle at all.
In the 2024 US presidential election, there are rumors that Senator Joe Manchin is considering running against President Joe Biden. West Virginia, Manchin's home state, could potentially play a significant role in the election, given its deep-seated Republican leanings. Current governor Jim Justice, who defected from the Democrats to the Republicans in 2017 and is supported by former President Donald Trump, is not allowed to run for another term but could be seen as a potential candidate.
Source: www.ntv.de
