Data required for the legislative election in Saxony's state parliament
The West has a dilemma: On September 1st, around 3.3 million voters will decide who will shape the political landscape in Saxony in the coming days. For the first time since the establishment of the Free State, the CDU, which has been leading the government in Dresden since 1990, could potentially lose its position as the most influential party in the country.
The upcoming state election in Saxony promises to be a thrilling spectacle: Over the past few months, polls have indicated a tight race between the CDU and AfD. At times, the AfD has led, only for the CDU's lead to re-emerge during summer. However, as per the latest poll, the AfD has once again narrowly surpassed the CDU.
The most recent survey places the Saxony Christian Democrats at roughly 29% of the vote, while the Alternative for Germany (AfD) stands at about 32%. The "Alliance for Progress and Renewal" (APR) is predicted to secure around 15% of the vote, making it the third-strongest force in Saxony. The SPD, Greens, and Left Party held approximately 5% each in the August 16th survey. This suggests that, should the election yield such results, these three parties would need to secure at least two direct mandates to regain their seats in the state parliament.
Remember: The data for the 2024 Saxony state election is continuously being updated.
Forming a stable majority for the government could prove challenging: The incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer must prepare for the Saxony CDU to possibly slide into second place. The contest is still ongoing: According to a poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen on August 9th, the AfD was at approximately 30%, while the CDU stood at 34%. The APR garnered 11% in this survey, while the SPD and Greens both had 6%.
The CDU has been the Saxony Minister President since reunification. Should CDU candidate Kretschmer obtain less than 32.2% of the vote in the election, he will be responsible for the poorest CDU result in a Saxony state election to date.
At present, Kretschmer relies on a black-green-red majority. However, whether this coalition can persist as it is is highly uncertain. Kretschmer himself has declared his intentions to govern without the Greens in the future. His negotiating power hinges on how many parties manage to clear the 5% threshold. In a survey commissioned by the Saxon newspaper on June 19th, the SPD and Greens in Saxony were each at 5.0%.
Upon questioning, Kretschmer holds a favorable public standing. In a direct election poll, the CDU politician outshines the AfD's top candidate Jörg Urban. Only 17% of those surveyed by Infratest dimap thought Urban would make an effective head of government. In this poll, at least, Urban's popularity falls short of his party's standing.
Clearly, majority governments do not appear to be imminent in Saxony. In the event that the Greens, Social Democrats, and Left Party fail to secure seats in the state parliament, there could potentially be only three factions in the Saxony state parliament in the future.
A three-party situation would put Kretschmer in a challenging position at the state level: Should the CDU, SPD, and Left Party fail to make it into the state parliament, there could potentially be only three factions in the Saxony state parliament in the future.
In such a scenario, Kretschmer would be obliged to confront contentious decisions at the state level: Should the CDU govern with Wagenknecht's alliance? In an RTL and ntv early start interview, Kretschmer did not dismiss a coalition with the APR outright when asked.
However, Kretschmer harshly criticized the BSW. The alliance primarily campaigned for Wagenknecht in Saxony, despite her not being a candidate in the September 1st election. Moreover, there was scant information available about the program of Wagenknecht's party. "It's also somewhat of a black box, a mystery," said Kretschmer.
CDU top candidate Kretschmer hinted prior to the election that he wished to remain in power – if possible, with the SPD and without the Greens. A collaboration with the AfD was explicitly rejected. Based on the current poll data, the CDU could secure a maximum of 55 out of the standard 120 seats with the Social Democrats. However, the threshold for a majority is 61.
Even with the Greens and Left in the state parliament, the continuation of the black-green-red coalition would not be straightforward: In the polls, the Saxon Greens could gain between 59 to 63 seats – but only if they showed improvements by election day.
Together with the BSW, Kretschmer and the Social Democrats could currently command a clear majority of 70 seats in the state parliament. With BSW and without the Greens, Kretschmer would secure significantly more seats. However, the CDU politician would then have to head the first German "black box" or "mystery box" coalition at the state level.
The top candidate of the Greens in Saxony, Katja Meier, outright rejects a coalition with the BSW. "I am a member of Alliance 90/The Greens, a party that emerged from the civil rights movement that took to the streets in 1989 for free elections, for democracy, for press freedom," said Meier in RTL/ntv's "Early Start". She could not fathom entering a coalition with a party that not only advocates for an authoritarian regime but also "rules authoritarively".
Meier, currently serving as Saxony's Minister of Justice, views the three-party coalition with CDU and SPD as a triumph. She chided Kretschmer for his opposition to a revival of partnership with the Greens. "Kretschmer's pessimistic predictions are off the mark, as this situation is about maintaining solid majorities here and not swaying to the right towards the AfD any more than to the Kremlin-backed individuals from the BSW," she stated.
Note: This map displays the results of the local elections in Saxony, as of June 2024
The final majority arrangements in the Saxon state legislature will hinge on the upcoming election day. The voter turnout is expected to play a substantial role in determining the final outcome, as backed up by a reliable comparison model.
In the 2019 state election, voter turnout in Saxony stood at 66.5%. This implies that the 33.5% of the population who abstained from voting would have possessed a theoretical voting share if they had cast their ballots. A total of 19 parties and voter groups are contesting in Saxony on September 1st.
In the 2019 election, the CDU suffered its worst performance in Saxony since reunification, earning 32.1% of the votes. The AfD placed second with 27.5%, followed by the Left with 10.4%. The Greens garnered 8.6% of the votes in Saxony during the 2019 election, while the Social Democrats finished in fifth place with a vote share of 7.7%.
In the political landscape of Saxony, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) are closely competing for the most influential position. Recent polls suggest that the AfD might surpass the CDU, potentially leading to a significant shift in power. However, it's important to note that the "BSW" (Bürgerliche Alternative Sachsen-West), another political group, has been actively campaigning for renowned politician Sahra Wagenknecht, although she is not a candidate in the September 1st election. Kretschmer, the CDU's top candidate, has criticized the BSW, labeling their program and intentions as somewhat of a "mystery" or "black box".
