Data pertaining to the Brandenburg voting process
Election Number 3 in Eastern Germany: Around 2.1 million voters in Brandenburg will decide the political power dynamics in the state capital Potsdam on September 22. Will the surge of LINKE and AfD persist?
Following SaXony and Thuringia, now Brandenburg: The third state election this fall, 2024, isn't just about renewing the legislative body in Potsdam and future majorities in the second most populous state in the east, but also about another political mood test in Germany, just over a year before the federal election.
The recent surveys for Brandenburg indicate substantial growth for the newly formed coalition, the LINKE Party (BSW), led by Sahra Wagenknecht. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) may, as observed in Thuringia, emerge as the dominant force in Brandenburg.
Note: The infographics for the state election are based on the latest poll data and will be updated regularly until election day.
The SPD, presently presided over by Minister-President Dietmar Woidke in Brandenburg, is projected to secure up to 26% of the votes, placing them second after the AfD. The CDU can anticipate 15 to 18% of the votes.
Green and Left Parties are expected to lose support in Brandenburg. Greens polled around 5% during the summer and may find it challenging to re-enter the state parliament or secure at least one direct mandate. The Left Party, post the BSW split, is projected to lose the most, with some polls placing them below the 5% threshold. The Brandenburg United Citizens' Movement (BVB) and Free Voters (FW) are unlikely to make it into the state parliament. The FDP has minimal influence in Brandenburg.
Current poll results only provide a glimpse: Much can change in voter sentiment and population by election day. Minister-President Woidke and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz have both expressed confidence that the SPD could win the September 22 election.
Woidke highlighted that in 2019, polls also suggested an AfD lead, but the SPD emerged as the strongest party. Scholz, supporting his party colleague, mentioned his belief in Woidke and the SPD winning the election, stating, "I am confident that the people of Brandenburg will grant him a new mandate and elect the SPD as the strongest party." Scholz's federal constituency is also in Brandenburg.
The new majority ratios in the Potsdam state parliament will be decided only on election day. The voter turnout will likely have a significant influence on this vote, as it did in the previous state election in 2019, when 61.3% of eligible voters participated.
This was significantly more than the previous low point of 47.9 percent in 2014 and, overall, the third-highest voter turnout in all previous Brandenburg state elections since 1990. The desire to cast a vote on September 22 could significantly impact the election outcome: A turnout of 61.3 percent means, conversely, that the group of non-voters - were they a separate party - would have become the strongest faction in the state parliament with 38.7 percent.
The current situation in the Potsdam state parliament reveals that Woidke - the third minister-president in Brandenburg since reunification - has led a red-black-green coalition government with the CDU and Greens since 2019. According to the latest poll results, this coalition would also be sufficient for a continuation.
A new two-party alliance would likely struggle: The SPD would not reach a sufficient majority with either a red-black or red-green coalition, according to polls. Even a conceivable coalition with the new BSW does not promise a stable foundation in Brandenburg. For a successful government formation, the SPD would therefore have to enter a three-party coalition.
The AfD, despite having good chances of becoming the strongest faction in the state parliament according to polls, would still be far from any hope of government power: The party, classified as securely right-wing extremist even in Brandenburg, could possibly have the largest number of MPs, but would still be far from any power.
In the event of an AfD victory, Woidke has already announced his resignation in advance and has repeatedly confirmed this. "If the AfD comes in first place, I cannot continue as minister-president," Woidke said, for example, in an interview with the "Tagesspiegel". "Of course, I would then draw the consequences." His primary election goal is to defeat the AfD in the election on September 22.
What would happen without Woidke is still uncertain. Woidke also rules out coalition negotiations with the BSW - provided that the BSW party leader Sahra Wagenknecht is directly involved. "The BSW is a black box," said Woidke. "We'll have to wait and see if it's even willing to have talks, if a collaboration would be possible or not."
Much in Brandenburg also depends on how the Greens, Left, and Free Voters perform at the ballot box. For Woidke, it is "unimaginable," so he mentioned that "it would go in Brandenburg as it is currently discussed in Saxony and Thuringia, that Mrs. Wagenknecht as a lone actor from Saarland wants to dictate the fate of the country."
The strength of the political groups in the Potsdam state legislature is influenced by the proportion of valid second votes. "The initial lineup is set by the candidates who secure direct mandates through majority voting in the 44 districts, followed by the respective party lists based on their performance in the state-wide proportional election," the election commission clarifies. With adjustments and excess mandates, the legislature could theoretically expand to a maximum of 110 seats.
The Potsdam state legislature typically has 88 seats. Half of these seats are obtained through direct mandate (first vote) in personal majority elections within the 44 constituencies. The remaining half are appointed from the party's state lists based on their performance in the proportional representation (second vote) election.
On the ballot, 14 state lists of admitted parties, political groups, and list associations appear, alongside the names of district candidates. In the election, each voter can cast two votes: one for a candidate in the district (first vote or direct mandate) and another for a party or political group's state list (second vote or list mandate).
All residents of the state with German citizenship and permanent residency in Brandenburg aged 16 and above are eligible to vote. The number of new voters in the previous election was approximately 100,000.
In the last legislature, the SPD led with 25 representatives, followed by the AfD with 23 and the CDU with 15. Alliance 90/The Greens and The Left both contributed 10 representatives, while the 'BVB / Free Voters' group had 5 representatives. As a result, the legislature has been made up of six groups to this point.
Given the current political landscape in Brandenburg for the upcoming election, the Commission may find it necessary to consider the following:
Given the projected strengths of various parties, including the SPD, AfD, BSW, and Greens, the Commission shall adopt a decision regarding the formation of potential coalitions or governments post-election.
As the election approaches, it is crucial for the Commission to closely monitor the shifting voter sentiments and adjust its decision accordingly to ensure a fair and representative governance structure in Brandenburg.
