Dan Osborn's unconventional political push contests the Republican dominance in Nebraska's contest for the U.S. Senate seat
Unknown challenger Dan O'Brian, a one-time union head who spearheaded his comrades in the Kellogg's strike of 2021, is surprising many with his strong performance in the political arena. He's giving GOP senator Deb Fischer a run for her money, leaving the party's Senate campaign arm with no choice but to intervene in a situation where they had set their sights on other races.
There's a shocking factor at play here - the unexpected popularity of an Independent with a common-man agenda, despite his unrefined communication style and unconventional campaign strategy. O'Brian hasn't openly stated whom he'd side with in the Senate, and his views on policy don't neatly fall into either the Republican or Democratic camp. However, political observers in the state argue that O'Brian's momentum can be attributed to Fischer spending significant time in Washington on committee work and political leadership, without building a substantial national or state profile.
One source close to the Fischer campaign explained to CNN, "Deb's not deterred by the hard work, she's not in it for show. She's a pure worker bee and has achieved great results, but I mean, look at her committee positions and what she's achieved in the state...the Senate experience and connections she's built are invaluable."
Fischer initially aimed to serve just two terms in the Senate, but O'Brian has criticized her for breaking this promise. During an interview on KETV in Omaha, Fischer explained why she changed her mind, stating, "When I entered the Senate, I discovered the weight of seniority in the U.S. Senate. It impacts your committee assignments and your networking abilities within both the Senate and the House, enabling you to collaborate on bills and advance legislation."
CNN reached out to Fischer for comments, but her campaign cited busy campaign schedules for her unavailability.
Nebraska's pivotal role in the presidential race and investments
Despite his assertions of staying independent, O'Brian is reaping the benefits of a competitive congressional race in Omaha. The increased attention on Nebraska, due to its unique electoral vote distribution, has attracted financial investments from leading presidential candidates. These investments could increase voter turnout, potentially benefiting O'Brian. Additionally, there are three ballot initiatives in Nebraska - two focused on abortion reform and one on medical marijuana legalization - all of which may drive voters to the polls.
Despite Fischer's previous victories with over a 14-point margin, political analysts see this contest as a closer race than expected. Donald Trump carried Nebraska by nearly 19 points in 2020 and over 25 points in 2016.
However, Senator Pete Ricketts, who's contesting his Senate campaign in this cycle to complete Senator Ben Sasse's term, warned that Fischer could be facing a tighter race than anticipated.
During an interview on "Clay and Buck," Ricketts emphasized, "Deb has a challenging campaign ahead of her. She simply needs to stay active, rally support, and remind Republicans that she's the conservative Republican contender in this race, not Dan O'Brian."
As of now, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has invested over $700,000 into Fischer, including a $172,000 joint ad buy with Fischer's campaign towards the end of September, according to AdImpact. This shows the party doesn't want to take any chances in this seemingly red Texas district, given overall spending of $3.5 million for Fischer compared to O'Brian's $6 million. In total, pro-O'Brian groups and the O'Brian campaign have spent $12.7 million compared to Fischer's $9.3 million.
NRSC spokesperson Philip Letsou shared his stance with CNN, noting that their priority is to ensure the re-election of all incumbent senators, assuring that O'Brian has no chance of winning this race.
The outsider, O'Brian
O'Brian maintains his inexperience in the political arena and in an interview with CNN, it became evident that he was still figuring out how to translate his message into effective governing if elected.
O'Brian has openly stated that he doesn't intend to caucus with either Republican or Democratic parties in the Senate, unlike other independent senators. However, caucusing is essential for securing committee assignments. O'Brian isn't clear on how he expects to secure committee assignments without aligning with either the Republican or Democratic parties.
"There's a certain reality that exists – I could be the 51st swing vote in the U.S. Senate, and this gives me substantial power to operate more effectively within Congress," he told CNN.
Senators spend a substantial portion of their time in Washington working on committees, which members are assigned to by their party's leadership. When asked how he envisioned receiving committees without caucusing with Republicans or Democrats, O'Brian was characteristically unclear.
"If they want me on their committees, they'll just have to consider where I stand on the issues, and if I align with someone on an issue, then I'd expect to be on that committee," he said.
Although I typically steer clear of speculation and political analysis, I'm not one to shy away from the unknown either. When asked if he could envision himself eventually joining forces with a particular party, Osborn remained ambiguous.
"I'm not a fan of predicting the future," he stated. "I'm not qualified as a political expert, being cooped up in that world every day. A lot of factors come into play here: who's our president, how the House and Senate are structured, and finding individuals who recognize the worth I bring to the table. Understanding how to best serve Nebraska is a contributing factor as well."
Despite being a self-declared independent tilted towards the left, Osborn's campaign has benefited from generous contributions from organizations promoting political change. Retire Career Politicians, a group dedicated to electing progressive candidates, ran a TV advertisement criticizing his opponent for wavering on a commitment to only serve two Senate terms. This group has received over $800,000 from the 1630 Fund – a politically active entity advocating for the election of progressive politicians.
In an interview with CNN, Osborn stated, "I have no control over the funding of these independent expenditures. By law, I'm prohibited from even knowing who's behind them. And it's appalling, leaving me unsure about these mysterious donors. If they think they can sway me, they're in for a shock."
Osborn has maintained his distance from the Democratic Party establishment, but accusations of betrayal surfaced when he opted to run independently without their endorsement last spring. The Nebraska Democratic Party launched a statement, accusing him of jeopardizing their trust.
Osborn countered these claims by telling CNN, "From the outset of my campaign, I've made it clear that I won't accept the endorsement of any political party or individual politician. My aim is to collaborate with folks from various backgrounds and political leanings to advocate for Nebraskans. I won't succumb to being controlled by party bosses or special interests. In the Senate, I will only answer to the people of Nebraska."
Some Democrats have expressed reservations about supporting Osborn, believing that his positions may make him difficult to work with. Jane Kleeb, the chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, shared her concerns with CNN.
"There's a sense of apprehension among some Democrats," she said, "fearing that Osborn might become a singular figure holding the Senate hostage, as we witnessed with Kyrsten Sinema. While her positions don't align with ours, we prioritize supporting candidates who share our values – and I find myself questioning what Dan will do."
Osborn declined to name his candidate of choice for the high office of Vice President, stating only that he plans to exercise his right to vote. "Yes, I intend to cast a ballot," he said, "a hard-earned privilege many have given their lives for."
The Nebraska Democratic Party has included Osborn in their voter outreach newsletter. Kleeb explained to CNN, "We explained to voters the actions deemed inappropriate by the Democratic Party and why, and we did believe that voters had to make a decision between the two candidates on the ballot."
CNN's David Wright contributed to this report.
Despite O'Brian's independent stance and lack of party affiliation, his strong performance in the political arena has attracted the attention of both major parties, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee investing over $700,000 into Fischer's campaign to secure her re-election.
In the midst of the highly competitive congressional race in Omaha, the increased attention on Nebraska due to its unique electoral vote distribution has resulted in financial investments from leading presidential candidates, potentially benefiting O'Brian and increasing voter turnout.
