"Cramming a building into a crater is achievable"
Conflict in Charkiw, Ukraine continues as Ukraine accuses Russia of attacks on Kiev, resulting in fatalities on the Crimean peninsula and progress in the Donbass region. Lieutenant Colonel Markus Reisner analyzes the ongoing Ukrainian-Russia conflict.
Following a missile strike causing casualties at a beach on the occupied Crimean peninsula, the Kremlin threatens the US. This attack is claimed by Ukraine, with US aid behind it. What is the truth behind this claim?
The last two weeks have seen attacks on the Crimean peninsula as part of the Ukrainian campaign. Their main targets are Russian air defense systems, such as S300 and S400 systems, along with important communication facilities on the Crimean peninsula and north of Kharkiv. It is understood that ATACMS and HIMARS rockets are used to target air defense installations on the Crimean peninsula and north of Kharkiv. If the Russian side manages to intercept one of these rockets, it's prone to falling to the ground.
For instance, on a crowded beach?
There are two opposing narratives: The Ukrainian version asserts that a missile was hit by Russian air defense, and falling debris injured and killed civilians. The second narrative from the Russian side alleges that Ukraine intentionally attacked beaches with ATACMS rockets.
By looking at the internet videos taken at the beaches, would the situation there suggest a targeted ATACMS attack?
Currently, Ukraine is primarily using the oldest version of ATACMS, dating back to the 1990s. It has two primary advantages over newer versions. First, it does not rely on GPS for targeting, instead using a gyrocompass to determine its own location (although less precisely than GPS). Second, it is resistant to Russian jamming devices due to this independence from GPS.
Is this independence from GPS significant, given that the Russians have jamming devices in use interfering with GPS systems?
Yes, the first advantage of the old ATACMS variant: It is resistant to Russian jamming devices. The second advantage is the munition, which is crucial in evaluating the beach situation. The ATACMS rockets used by Ukraine primarily carry area denial munition. They operate as an area denial weapon rather than a precision weapon, turning in the air and releasing numerous smaller bomblets upon impact with devastating effects.
What is the destructive radius for this area denial munition?
The rocket can scatter up to 950 bomblets that are pre-set to be ejected at a specific altitude. Each shard of this bomb has a 15-meter radius of effect. With 950 bomblets, approximately 33,000 square meters of area can be covered, with an effective radius having a diameter of over 200 meters. However, the damaged area would likely be more of an oval shape as the rocket scatters the bomblets in flight.
The Crimean beach was well-attended. If the Ukrainians had actually targeted and successfully attacked it, then dozens, if not hundreds, of people could have been killed. However, the extent of damage at the beach, compared to the relatively low number of casualties, does not indicate a deliberate cluster bomb attack. Instead, it is much more likely that Russian forces were the ones responsible, with debris from the falling rocket injuring beachgoers.
Even with a Russian-fired Ukrainian ATACMS, wouldn't they avoid doing so over a crowded Crimean beach with Russian vacationers?
Air defense systems have no control over where the rocket will fall after it is intercepted. They cannot precisely control its steering. This we witness in defensive attempts of the Ukrainians in large cities as well.
How risky is the current situation? The US Ambassador has been summoned, and the Russian Foreign Ministry declared the US complicit in the casualties due to their aid with flight coordination.
These events evolve into war propaganda, and the Russian anger over the alleged attack on the Crimean beach is further fueled by social media networks. The narrative alleges that US drones were circling Sewastopol, designating targets for attacks by Ukrainian troops. In some cases, even terrorist attacks in Dagestan are being blamed on Ukraine and NATO on YouTube, as many Russians have limited access to non-state information. This news and the narrative surrounding it form a closed picture for the Russian population.
Is the US drone a fabrication?
No, the US drone in question is a reconnaissance drone of the Global Hawk type, which regularly flies in the area and contributes to target identification for attacks by Ukrainian troops. The claim is therefore plausible. However, if these debris that injured the beachgoers were not a deliberate attack by the Ukrainians, then the US was not involved in the casualties.
What is the current state of the front lines in the Charkiw region, where there were positive signs last week that Ukraine could repel the Russian offensive?
Currently, there is a sort of parity in this region. The offensive momentum is with the Russians, with approximately 40,000 men in action. Although Ukrainian forces have successfully repelled the offensive, they struggle elsewhere, particularly further south in the fighting in the Donbass. There, Russian progress is nominal but present. Two main avenues of attack are noticeable: intense fighting is taking place at Chassiw Jar, where the Russian army continues to attempt to establish a crossing over the Donbass Canal, a significant obstacle for them. This effort is arduous and laborious.
Where's the scene at Otscheretyne, after the Russians smashed their way through the second defense line? We're witnessing the Russians pushing further and further into this breach, aiming for a crucial supply route to Chassiv Yar. If these Russian troops manage to sever the supply line, the Ukrainian troops in that area would be without resources. This could potentially accelerate the Russian onslaught. Furthermore, we've spotted the Russians using massive glide bombs that pack a punch with 3000 kg of explosives.
The power of these bombs is clear, even if they don't always hit their mark, deviating by 15-20 meters. However, the destruction they cause is undeniable. These bombs create a crater big enough to fit a small house. If a multi-story building gets hit, it collapses entirely.
For almost three weeks now, the Ukrainians have been allowed to hit Russian soil with US rockets. How's that affecting things?
The rocket attacks have been steadily increasing, and there are initial successes, but they're not easily quantifiable yet. Basically, the Russian side is still able to forge ahead with their offensive. But the Ukrainians are focusing the weight of their rocket attacks on Russian air defense systems like the S300 and S400, and Russian airfields.
Is the ultimate goal still to pave the way for the use of F16 fighter jets?
Indeed, and as always, Kiev is lobbying with their Western supporters about the issue of range. The Ukrainians claim that a range of 100 kilometers has resulted in some initial victories, but it's not sufficient. They want to reach deeper, as there's more beyond the 100 km mark. That's why Ukraine is currently trying to convince the USA to extend their reach.
There are whispers from Washington that the range of the rockets is unlimited.
That's true, but if that were really the case, we'd see the evidence of destroyed airfields and air defense systems over a 300 km radius. As of now, we're not witnessing that kind of devastation. So it seems like the USA is still holding back on the issue of range.
Interview with Markus Reisner by Frauke Niemeyer
Read also:
- In response to the attack on a crowded beach in Crimea, the Kremlin accused the USA of aiding Ukraine with missile strikes, specifically using HIMARS rocket launchers.
- The Ukrainian-Russian conflict in Crimea has seen the use of HIMARS rocket launchers against Russian air defense systems, such as the S300 and S400, causing debris to fall on the beach.
- Despite the use of US-provided HIMARS rockets, the extent of damage at the Crimean beach does not suggest a deliberate attack by Ukraine, with Russian forces potentially being responsible for the debris causing injuries.
