Could the Democrats still replace Biden?
Yes, it is indeed possible - this is the answer to the question that many are asking now. How could the Democrats prevent President Biden from his candidacy? In fact, this will not happen and there are good reasons against it. Questions and answers about that.
How could Biden be stopped?
He cannot be stopped - Biden must willingly renounce his candidacy. He has clearly secured the Democratic primaries. The next step would be the official nomination at the Democratic Convention from August 19 to 22 in Chicago. These nominating conventions are essentially a formality. It has never happened before that a candidate has withdrawn there. The reason for this is that the delegates who have won for Biden are essentially bound to him. They must at least vote for him in the first round. Therefore, Biden can also be none the wiser about taking away his candidacy. Only in the second round could unbound delegates abstain - these are elected officials, such as Senators, Representatives, Governors, and party leaders.
Who could convince Biden to drop out?
The answer to that is ultimately speculation. His wife Jill would be the best person. However, she has energetically supported his candidacy so far. After the TV debate against Trump, she exclaimed: "Joe, you did such a great job! You answered every question! You knew all the facts!" This does not mean that she could not change her mind. The other possibility would be party leaders like Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, or former President Barack Obama speaking to him. But Biden is known to be stubborn and is convinced that he is the most qualified candidate.
What would happen if Biden stepped down?
First of all, it is expected that several Democrats would announce their candidacy. Vice President Kamala Harris would be the natural successor. Since she is not particularly popular, other chances would also exist. Possible contenders are Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and her colleague in California, Governor Gavin Newsom. In the weeks leading up to the Democratic Convention, these candidates would campaign for the approval of the delegates. New primaries would not be held. At the Convention, the delegates would then vote - possibly in several rounds, until someone gets an absolute majority.
Has this ever happened before?
No, not in this form yet. But there are two historical examples that remind us of the current situation. The first is the Democratic Convention of 1968. At that time, the sitting Democratic President Lyndon B. Johnson gave up his candidacy due to disappointing primary results. Another candidate, Robert F. Kennedy, had been murdered. Therefore, the nomination was to be decided at the Convention. There, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey prevailed. He lost to the Republican Richard Nixon.
Nixon also refers to the second example - after the Watergate Scandal, the Republican President was politically finished. His party withdrew its support from him in August 1974, which led to Nixon's resignation and thus also avoided an impeachment trial. However, a weak performance in a TV debate is admittedly quite banal.
In the past, Vice President Gerald Ford took over the presidency and ran for re-election two years later. Regardless of who follows Biden - him or her - they had only good two months' time.
Is it wise to bring Biden to the task?
This is the crucial question at the moment. It's possible that it's only a matter of the lesser evil. Recognizing what that might be, however, is not so simple. Of course, one could say: Better an end with terror than terror without end. But a new candidate would only have roughly two and a half months to make themselves known to the Americans. It would be a Hail Mary pass, as Trump now clearly has the upper hand.
A replacement of the candidate would cause unrest among the Democrats, if not chaos - and Trump could simply sit back and present himself as the only true alternative. One thing is certain: The potential replacement candidates for Biden are calculating their chances coolly. They could also run for office after a possible second term of Trump's.
On the other hand, the times - to put it mildly - are unusual. US politics has not functioned according to the experts' expectations for years. The rejection of Trump is extreme among the Democrats and many independents. Many of them would vote for any reasonably acceptable candidate to prevent Trump.
Can Biden turn things around tonight?
Nothing is impossible, but it will be difficult. His age has been his greatest weakness so far. His performance was no surprise but confirmed these concerns. The evening had something of the fairy tale "The Emperor's New Clothes." It was often said: Biden may be old, but he's up to the task. Now everyone has seen: There are serious doubts about that. The Emperor is naked.
If substance mattered more than perception, Biden would still have a chance. But everywhere in politics, especially in the US, perception is now more important than facts. "Feelings are facts," said former Chancellor Merkel about that. Being perceived as old and infirm does no good for a presidential candidate, as much as that may be needed.
Moreover, Trump could simply deny Biden a second debate. In doing so, he would deny the Democrat the opportunity to improve his performance. He has done the same thing in the Republican primaries. With overwhelming success.
- If Joe Biden decides to withdraw from the 2024 US presidential election, the Democrats would need to hold new primaries to select a new candidate.
- In the 1968 Democratic Convention, Vice President Hubert H. Humphrey was chosen as the Democratic candidate after the sitting President Lyndon B. Johnson withdrew due to unfavorable primary results and the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy.
- During the TV debates, Donald Trump and Joe Biden have shown their strengths and weaknesses, and the outcome could significantly impact the US presidential election in 2024.
- Despite the challenges, some Democratic leaders and potential candidates are calculating their chances of replacing Joe Biden if he decides to step down from the 2024 presidential race.
