Could a Trump victory be beneficial for Ukraine?
What happens if Donald Trump wins the US Presidency election? In Ukraine, this question is being discussed intensely, as it is crucial for the country's survival. According to a source in Kiev, a "very hard" year 2025 is expected there - but advantages could follow.
Donald Trump and his possible Vice President J. D. Vance have previously expressed critical views on US aid for Ukraine. Therefore, Kiev must reckon with the possibility that the biggest supporter of the country under attack from Russia will disappear with a Republican win in the Presidency election. A source in Kiev told "Time" magazine that the Ukraine would indeed face major problems - but only up to a certain point.
According to this high-ranking official, "the first eight or ten months, in other words the whole year 2025, would be very hard." Trump would likely drastically cut aid to Ukraine and pressure President Zelensky to accept a peace agreement that would be heavily in Russia's favor - likely involving significant territorial concessions. This is rejected by the government in Kiev.
According to the source, there is hope in Kiev that the situation in the US might still turn in the Ukraine's favor after a difficult year: "With time, Trump will see that Putin is not trustworthy." The Republican would realize "that Putin cares nothing for him or his agenda. Then we could start seeing some benefits from Trump." Among the political elite in Ukraine, hopes for a second Trump term have gained significance in recent months, according to the "Times" report.
Regarding Trump's possible Vice President J. D. Vance, the high-ranking Ukrainian official also commented. This person is "like a pendulum. His position swings from one side to another." Therefore, there is hope in Kiev that he might change his critical stance.
Boris Johnson believes in further support
Retired General Lieutenant Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served in Trump's National Security Council, reportedly presented him with a plan in which the US would threaten to withdraw support from the Ukraine and force Russia to the negotiating table under the threat of being given everything they need to kill them on the battlefield. Trump is said to have reacted favorably to these ideas.
Russia demands that Ukraine cede its four eastern regions, which Kiev strictly rejects. Ukraine, in turn, demands the full withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukrainian territory, which is also met with rejection there.
Boris Johnson, the former British Prime Minister and a strong supporter of Ukraine, recently told the "Daily Mail" after a meeting with Trump: "Whatever other Republicans may have said about Ukraine in the past, I believe Trump understands that a defeat for Ukraine would be a major defeat for America."
Among the Republicans, there are hardliners who call for an end to Ukraine aid in its entirety, but also many supporters of the country. Among these is the Trump ally Mike Johnson, who currently serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives and is one of the most influential politicians in the US.
In Europe, preparations are being made for the scenario of a possible Trump victory. If the USA indeed significantly reduce or even halt their aid, it might be possible for EU countries to increase their support. However, it is questionable whether this would occur at the level of US aid.
- If Donald Trump becomes the US President in 2024, as many in Ukraine fear, the country could face a challenging year due to potential cuts in aid and pressure to accept a peace agreement favoring Russia.
- Russia's demand for Ukraine to cede its eastern regions is a major point of contention, with both sides strictly rejecting each other's positions.
- Boris Johnson, a strong supporter of Ukraine, believes that Trump understands the importance of Ukraine to America, despite some Republicans calling for an end to aid to the country.
- In the event of significant cuts or halt in US aid to Ukraine, European countries may consider increasing their support, although it's uncertain whether this would reach the level of US aid.
